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Forecast Discussion for FWD NWS Office
FXUS64 KFWD 202321

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
621 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

/00Z TAFs/

There are little operational concerns with this evening`s TAF
package. The only forecast challenge is the development of gulf
stratus across central Texas creeping into the KACT terminal in
the early morning hours. There is a 20% chance of MVFR ceilings
moving over the terminal between 12-15Z, however, the current
thinking is the ceilings should remain south/west of KACT.
Otherwise, a typical diurnal wind cycle is expected with south-
southeast winds in the afternoon and south-southwest winds
developing near sunrise.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 238 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019/
/Through Tonight/

Hot and humid conditions persist across Central and North Texas
this afternoon. Many locations are experiencing heat index values
between 105 degrees and 108 degrees. The heat advisory will remain
in effect until 7pm this evening. Outside of the heat, an area of
showers and thunderstorms is occurring across southeast Texas
this afternoon. Some of this activity may sneak into our east and
southeast through 00z and will keep a 20 pop for these locations.
If thunderstorms do develop, then moderate/heavy downpours, brief
gusty winds, and cloud to ground lightning will be the main
threats. Convection should diminish later this evening with the
loss daytime heating. Otherwise, warm and muggy conditions will
continue tonight. Overnight lows will be in the middle to upper
70s across much of the area with low 80s in the Metroplex.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 238 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019/
/Wednesday onward/

The stout upper-level ridge responsible for hot and rain-free
weather looks to stick around for another couple of days, leading
to more of the same through Thursday. Highs each day will be near
100 F (give or take a few degrees, depending on where you are located
in our county warning area). Maximum heat index values will be a
bit marginal tomorrow in terms of Heat Advisory criteria, but
seeing as an advisory is already out through Wednesday, might as
well let it ride since (1) it will be close enough, and (2) even
if we are not explicitly at/above criteria, it will be plenty hot.
The night shift may opt to drop the Heat Advisory, but
regardless, all the usual precautions to avoid heat-related
illness will need to be taken.

Late this week and into the weekend, the upper-level ridge may
loosen its grip on North and Central Texas a bit as the ridge
shifts to the west. The reduced subsidence may allow for some
diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms to develop each day
Friday through Sunday, mainly over our southern and eastern
counties where the subsidence will be the weakest, and moisture
will be the highest. There could be some additional enhancement to
shower and thunderstorm chances as some weak, transient upper-
level shortwave troughs propagate across Oklahoma and Kansas.
Right now, it does not look like we are looking at much in the way
of widespread, wetting rains, but there appears to be enough there
to justify at least slight chance to chance PoPs for portions of
the county warning area through the weekend. Some people will see
perhaps a few tenths of an inch of rain. A few lucky individuals
may pick up a half-inch or more. But for most of us, we will stay
hot and dry, longing for the relief of a late-summer downpour.

The upper-level pattern with the ridge centered over the Desert
Southwest looks to continue into next week, with perhaps an
increase in tropical moisture towards the middle of the week.
There has been little run-to-run consistency regarding
precipitation coverage during this time period, so kept PoPs in
the slight chance to chance range areawide.

As for your extended outlook, some members of the GFS ensemble
forecast system (GEFS) continue to hint at some sort of cold front
towards the end of next week (August 30 - September 1). Details
are obviously very uncertain right now, but this signal has
appeared in several consecutive runs of the GEFS, and in fact,
CPC is indicating a slightly increased probability of below normal
temperatures and above normal precipitation during this time
period. Doubtful it`ll be time to break out the pumpkin spice, but
perhaps we might manage to get some reasonable temperatures
(highs only in the upper 80s?) in time for Labor Day weekend. We
shall see.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    81  99  80  99  80 /   0   0   5   5   0
Waco                77  98  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   5   0
Paris               77  96  75  95  75 /   0   0   5  10  10
Denton              78  99  79  98  78 /   0   0   5   5   5
McKinney            77  99  78  98  77 /   0   0   5   5   5
Dallas              83 100  81 100  80 /   0   0   5   5   0
Terrell             77  98  79 100  77 /   0   0   5   5   5
Corsicana           77  97  77  96  76 /   0   0   0   5   0
Temple              76  99  76  97  75 /   0   0   0   5   0
Mineral Wells       75  99  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   5   5


Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ092>095-103>107-

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091-101-102-117-




NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion

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