000 FXUS64 KFWD 011034 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 534 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: /Weekend/ No changes were needed with easterly low level flow maintaining a very dry airmass across the area, as well as a large diurnal range between lows (in the 40s/50s) and highs (primarily in the 80s) each day. Antecedent drought conditions and low afternoon RH will maintain an elevated grass fire danger throughout the weekend. 05/Marty Previous Discussion: /This Weekend/ A deep latitudinal, albeit relatively weak upper ridge will remain right on top of the Southern Plains and nation`s Heartland through the weekend. Very little fluctuation or movement of the ridge is expected the next 48 hours, as this feature will be sandwiched between fairly deep troughs over the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard (pretty much Ian`s extratropical remnants) and a closed northern Rockies/Plains upper low. A broad and stout surface ridge emanating from the eastern provinces of Canada into the Southern Plains/Ozarks will also remain steady-state and keep a dry and near seasonal airmass across North-Central TX. The GoM will remain shut down with the main weather feature of concern being continued, or even increasing drought conditions and fire weather concerns as noted by the uptick of fires this past week. Fortunately, wind speeds are expected to remain relatively light at 10 mph or less from the east or southeast throughout the weekend. The mostly clear conditions and dry airmass will result in prime radiative cooling each morning with lows in the 50s, with even a few readings across protective wooded areas of East Texas possible falling briefly into the upper 40s each morning just before sunrise. Each day will see a large diurnal range in warm up within the dry airmass, as highs easily surge back up into the 80s, with a few readings across the Big Country possibly reaching the 90 degree mark. 05/Marty && .LONG TERM... /Issued 247 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022/ /Sunday Night through Friday/ An upper ridge will remain over the Central and Southern Plains through early next week keeping North and Central Texas rain- free with near seasonal temperatures. We still anticipate some high clouds associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Orlene on Sunday night/Monday but these clouds will move quickly to the east Monday night and should have little influence on temperatures. The upper ridge axis will translate to the east Tuesday through Wednesday, while an upper trough moves across the Northern and Central Plains. Southerly low level flow will return to the region in response to a developing surface trough across the Central Plains. However, low level moisture will not noticeably increase across North and Central Texas since much of the Gulf will keep northeast flow at least through Wednesday. The upper pattern will change the second half of the week with an upper ridge developing across the western CONUS and a long wave trough taking shape across the central and east. This pattern will place the Lone Star State in dry northwest flow aloft and allow a cold front to move across the region Thursday night and Friday. The front will come through dry, bringing little more than a wind shift and a slight cool down. Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals through next week with highs mainly in the 80s and lows in the 50s and lower 60s. .Fire Weather... The threat for new fire starts will remain elevated through next week due to abundant dry fuels and low relative humidity. However, since wind speeds should remain generally less than 15 mph, the threat for significant wildfires will still be relatively low. The only exception may be at the end of the week behind a cold front when northerly winds will likely increase. 79 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ Update: /12z TAFs/ No changes needed. See 06z TAF discussion below. 05/Marty Previous Discussion: /06z TAFs/ No concerns are anticipated this weekend across the D10 airspace and across Central Texas, as a VFR forecast with primarily E winds 10 kts or less expected, with winds becoming light SE or VRB nocturnally during after nightfall and decoupling of the surface from the PBL. 05/Marty && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 58 84 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 85 53 86 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 82 51 83 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 83 53 84 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 83 53 85 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 83 58 85 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 82 52 83 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 83 53 84 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 85 53 86 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 85 53 85 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$