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Forecast Discussion for FWD NWS Office
FXUS64 KFWD 011034

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
534 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

...New Short Term, Aviation...


No changes were needed with easterly low level flow maintaining a
very dry airmass across the area, as well as a large diurnal range
between lows (in the 40s/50s) and highs (primarily in the 80s)
each day.

Antecedent drought conditions and low afternoon RH will maintain
an elevated grass fire danger throughout the weekend.


Previous Discussion:
/This Weekend/

A deep latitudinal, albeit relatively weak upper ridge will
remain right on top of the Southern Plains and nation`s Heartland
through the weekend. Very little fluctuation or movement of the
ridge is expected the next 48 hours, as this feature will be
sandwiched between fairly deep troughs over the Mid-Atlantic
Seaboard (pretty much Ian`s extratropical remnants) and a closed
northern Rockies/Plains upper low. A broad and stout surface ridge
emanating from the eastern provinces of Canada into the Southern
Plains/Ozarks will also remain steady-state and keep a dry and
near seasonal airmass across North-Central TX.

The GoM will remain shut down with the main weather feature of
concern being continued, or even increasing drought conditions and
fire weather concerns as noted by the uptick of fires this past
week. Fortunately, wind speeds are expected to remain relatively
light at 10 mph or less from the east or southeast throughout the
weekend. The mostly clear conditions and dry airmass will result
in prime radiative cooling each morning with lows in the 50s, with
even a few readings across protective wooded areas of East Texas
possible falling briefly into the upper 40s each morning just
before sunrise. Each day will see a large diurnal range in warm up
within the dry airmass, as highs easily surge back up into the
80s, with a few readings across the Big Country possibly reaching
the 90 degree mark.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 247 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022/
/Sunday Night through Friday/

An upper ridge will remain over the Central and Southern Plains
through early next week keeping North and Central Texas rain-
free with near seasonal temperatures. We still anticipate some
high clouds associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Orlene
on Sunday night/Monday but these clouds will move quickly to the
east Monday night and should have little influence on temperatures.

The upper ridge axis will translate to the east Tuesday through
Wednesday, while an upper trough moves across the Northern and
Central Plains. Southerly low level flow will return to the region
in response to a developing surface trough across the Central
Plains. However, low level moisture will not noticeably increase
across North and Central Texas since much of the Gulf will keep
northeast flow at least through Wednesday.

The upper pattern will change the second half of the week with an
upper ridge developing across the western CONUS and a long wave
trough taking shape across the central and east. This pattern
will place the Lone Star State in dry northwest flow aloft and
allow a cold front to move across the region Thursday night and
Friday. The front will come through dry, bringing little more than
a wind shift and a slight cool down.

Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals through next week
with highs mainly in the 80s and lows in the 50s and lower 60s.

.Fire Weather...
The threat for new fire starts will remain elevated through next week
due to abundant dry fuels and low relative humidity. However,
since wind speeds should remain generally less than 15 mph, the
threat for significant wildfires will still be relatively low. The
only exception may be at the end of the week behind a cold front
when northerly winds will likely increase.



/12z TAFs/

No changes needed. See 06z TAF discussion below.


Previous Discussion:
/06z TAFs/

No concerns are anticipated this weekend across the D10 airspace
and across Central Texas, as a VFR forecast with primarily E winds
10 kts or less expected, with winds becoming light SE or VRB
nocturnally during after nightfall and decoupling of the surface
from the PBL.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    83  58  84  58  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                85  53  86  55  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               82  51  83  52  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              83  53  84  53  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            83  53  85  53  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              83  58  85  60  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             82  52  83  53  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           83  53  84  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              85  53  86  55  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       85  53  85  52  86 /   0   0   0   0   0




NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion

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