886 FXUS64 KFWD 101822 AAA AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1222 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019 .SHORT TERM... /Through Wednesday Night/ The main concern in the short term forecast period will be lingering light rain and possible patchy freezing fog on Wednesday morning. At this time, the potential is very low and will be relegated to parts of Central Texas. Otherwise, cold conditions will persist this afternoon and into the nighttime period. Below normal temperatures are also anticipated on Wednesday though it`ll be less gloomy with mostly sunny skies. The upper level trough responsible for this morning`s light rain with intermittent sleet continues to churn across the Permian Basin. With this feature a little slower, mid and upper level ascent will continue to overspread the area. While I expect that the radar scope will remain quite illuminated this afternoon, dry air advection at the surface will likely keep rainfall amounts very light (just a few hundredths of an inch of additional rain expected). For most locations, only virga is anticipated. The lingering ascent will delay the erosion of cloud cover and I`ve slowed the clearing line by a few hours. This should mean the raw and unpleasant conditions will continue this afternoon with most areas struggling to get out of the upper 30s and low 40s. The exception may be across western North Texas where late day clearing and thus diabatic heating may be enough to allow temperatures to climb a little higher into the mid 40s. For tonight, mostly clear skies, calm winds and large temperature-dew point temperature spreads will allow for ideal radiational cooling as the main trough axis aloft translates eastward. The previous forecast remained well below the model consensus for MinT`s and I see no reason to deviate from that based on the expected conditions. Most areas will fall down below freezing with some locations west of I-35 falling into the low 20s. The recent rainfall may promote the development of some patchy freezing mist/fog...mainly across Central Texas. At this time, confidence isn`t high enough to include in the worded forecast, but this will need to be monitored closely. Wednesday won`t be quite as cool---though still below normal--- and with ample sunshine, the 50s will actually feel much more pleasant compared to today. Northeast winds will be replaced with southerly flow as upstream lee-side trough commences. Bain && .AVIATION... /18 UTC TAF Cycle/ Concerns---Ceiling trends and low BR potential at Waco. VFR will continue at Metroplex TAFs through the entire period as dry air plunges southward. I cannot rule out some occasional virga resulting in some turbulence below 12,000 feet. Otherwise, northerly winds will become light and somewhat variable overnight. For now, I`ll show a light northeast wind in the TAF with flow becoming more southerly through mid-morning Wednesday. Speeds should be light enough such that a return to south flow may be possible prior to the Tuesday evening push. For Waco...MVFR with occasional -RA and IFR cigs are expected through this afternoon. As dry air heads south toward the airfield, cigs will lift and VFR is anticipated around 2100 UTC. VFR will prevail through the remainder of the TAF cycle. There is a low potential for some BR toward daybreak and given that surface temperatures will be below 32 degrees, I cannot completely rule out the potential for some very minor icing on idle aircraft at the airfield. The BR potential is low and not included in the TAF at this point, but trends will be monitored. Otherwise, northerly winds will become southerly through the end of the valid TAF cycle. Bain && .LONG TERM... /Issued 336 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019/ /Wednesday and Beyond/ Return flow will begin on Wednesday as the axis of a surface ridge shifts to our east and a rapidly-approaching shortwave trough strengthens a surface low to our northwest. The shortwave will swing relatively uneventfully across the Southern Plains, as it will not be able to tap into any significant amount of Gulf moisture until it gets east of the Mississippi Valley. A weak front will accompany the shortwave, but will likely stall before reaching North Texas. This should allow for a gradual warming trend during he second half of the work week. A pair of disturbances will then rotate through the Midwest over the weekend, giving the front enough of a push to make it through the region. The current plan is to follow the faster side of guidance with the front at this time, which brings the boundary through the area on Saturday. Little to no precipitation is expected with the initial passage of the front due to the absence of moisture and lack of any appreciable lift. The next upper level trough will drop southeast from the Pacific Northwest to the Four-Corners region on Sunday, then work its way into the Southern Plains on Monday. Isentropic lift will increase as the system approaches, which will begin our next decent chances for our rain late in the day Sunday. The surface boundary will retreat northward as a warm front Sunday-Sunday night, and may reach the Central Texas counties before pushing south again. The Sunday-Monday temperature forecast hence contains a fairly large spread from north to south. This forecast also includes isolated thunder, as elevated instability looks sufficient for the occasional lightning strike. Pops will be mainly along and east of Interstate 35, with the western third of the region likely remaining dry. The front will surge southward on Monday as the upper trough moves east of the region, ending rain chances from west to east Monday night. After Monday, a cooler than normal and dry period looks likely through most of next week. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 47 31 53 34 54 / 80 0 0 0 0 Waco 45 29 55 31 56 / 100 0 5 0 0 Paris 44 28 51 31 51 / 60 0 0 0 0 Denton 46 28 52 32 54 / 40 0 0 0 0 McKinney 46 29 52 32 53 / 70 0 0 0 0 Dallas 47 30 53 34 54 / 90 0 0 0 0 Terrell 44 29 53 32 54 / 100 0 5 0 0 Corsicana 45 30 54 33 54 / 100 5 5 0 0 Temple 44 30 54 32 56 / 100 0 5 0 0 Mineral Wells 46 25 53 31 54 / 50 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 24/08