483
FXUS64 KFWD 221049
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
549 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020


.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Scattered showers are ongoing across portions of North and Central
Texas as moisture from Tropical Storm Beta continues to stream in.
The main update to the forecast is to include the mention of
drizzle through the morning hours. Minor adjustments were also
made to this morning`s precipitation forecast to account for the
ongoing trends.

Overall, precipitation amounts will likely remain between 1-2
inches within the heaviest precipitation. Although minor flooding
can`t be ruled out completely, the probability will remain low
given the short duration of the passing rain shower.

Hernandez

Previous Discussion:
/Through Wednesday/

Tropical Storm Beta continues to spin along the Texas Coast, with
the center currently near Port Lavaca. T.S. Beta made landfall at
around 10pm Monday near the southern end of Matagorda Peninsula.
Very little forward motion is expected though today as steering
winds diminish.

Currently across North and Central Texas, overcast skies prevail
as plenty of moisture continues to be advected northward into our
region. Precipitable water values have steadily increased over
the past 24 hours, evident by the 1.13" increase sampled by the
weather balloon released in Fort Worth.

With moisture continuing to stream in, scattered light showers
will remain possible through much of today, along with occasional
bouts of mist/drizzle. The limiting factor for a much greater
precipitation potential will be the large amount of dry air that
has been encircling T.S. Beta since its inception. This has been
clearly evident on satellite that past several days as a large
mass of significantly dry air remains in place across West Texas
and even as close as the Hill Country. This will likely lead to a
similar scenario today compared to yesterday, where light to
moderate precipitation remained confined to a small area, with
little precipitation elsewhere.

The latest guidance is hinting at the greatest precipitation
potential to be across the Red River Counties this afternoon and
tonight, with decreasing changes the farther southwest you go.
The expectation is that an additional 1-2 inches of rain will be
possible east of I-35 and north of I-20 between today and
tomorrow. There is a potential for transient moderate to heavy
rain through this afternoon, but it should be short-lived, keeping
the risk of flooding low.

High temperatures both today and tomorrow will remain in the upper
60s to 70s as cloud cover and northeasterly winds continue.
Precipitation chances will be ending from west to east tomorrow
afternoon as Beta begins to gain forward speed off to the
northeast.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 223 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020/
/Wednesday Night Onward/

Rather uneventful weather is expected through the long term
portion of the forecast. An elongated positively tilted trough
will be in place over the the Central US through the middle and
end of the week which will continue to usher the remnants of Beta
off to the east. In its wake, weak height rises will occur, with
clearing skies and a return to a southerly flow regime. Sunnier
skies and warm advection will allow temperatures to bounce back
closer to normal with highs in the mid and upper 80s during the
second half of the week. This trend should continue into the
upcoming weekend with ridging occurring overhead.

By Sunday, an amplification of the large-scale pattern should
take place with a building ridge over the West Coast and a
deepening trough to the east. Multiple disturbances will dig
southeast through the parent trough, sending occasional fronts
into the Central and Southern Plains. One such front may arrive
on Sunday, but latest guidance suggests there would be very little
contrast across this boundary should it even be able to arrive at
all. Previous forecasts had called for perhaps a low chance for
showers and storms with its passage, but this has appeared less
likely over the past couple of model runs. As a result, we`ll
remove the low rain chances on Sunday for the time being.

A couple more days of south/southwest flow should allow
temperatures to climb above normal early next week, and it looks
like much of the area may be back in the 90s for Monday and
Tuesday. There may be a better potential for a stronger cold
front to arrive sometime late Tuesday or Wednesday which would
deliver a more substantial shot of cool and dry air, but this
remains uncertain given typical Day 7 inconsistencies in guidance.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
Update:
/12Z TAFs/

Concerns...IFR and reduced visibility due to drizzle and rain.

Tropical Storm Beta continues to spin along the Gulf Coast this
early Tuesday morning. Moisture is streaming northward into North
and Central Texas, leading to low ceilings and precipitation.
Light to moderate drizzle is occurring throughout the region,
leading to reduced visibility. Some sites have reported between
2-3SM within the heaviest drizzle. Most ceilings have also dropped
to IFR given the abundant moisture in place. Guidance continues to
show a brief window of low MVFR throughout North Texas this
afternoon, but IFR looks to return tonight and remain through the
end of this forecast cycle.

Additionally, scattered rain showers are ongoing across the
region. This is expected to continue throughout the rest of the
morning and early afternoon. A decrease in precipitation coverage
is expected as the afternoon progresses due to increasing dry air
withing the mid-levels of the atmosphere.

Winds throughout this forecast cycle will remain out of the
northeast, generally between 5-10 knots.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  65  75  62  80 /  60  20  10   0   0
Waco                73  66  77  63  81 /  50  20  10   0   0
Paris               67  61  70  58  76 /  70  50  30   5   0
Denton              72  63  74  60  79 /  60  20   5   0   0
McKinney            71  63  74  60  79 /  60  30  10   0   0
Dallas              72  65  75  62  80 /  60  30  10   0   0
Terrell             72  63  75  60  79 /  60  30  20   5   0
Corsicana           72  65  75  62  78 /  50  30  20   5   0
Temple              73  66  77  62  80 /  50  30  10   0   0
Mineral Wells       73  63  75  58  81 /  60  10   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

8

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion