000 FXUS64 KFWD 260838 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 338 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 117 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022/ /Through Monday/ Quite a challenging short term forecast, as we continue to monitor a late season cold front currently draped from near Lubbock and Childress, TX, northeast toward Enid OK/Wichita KS. Meanwhile aloft, a broad upper high remained draped over the Southern Plains and TX. Models continue to struggle on exact timing of this cold front from various CAMs and other high-resolution models. As much as it would be easy just to roll with the progress NBM wind fields, it`s just not in my DNA to do so and will follow a HRRR/NAM blend, with a slight lean toward the former per latest position. This will generally be 1-3 hours slower than the NBM, which is a blend of several more progressive solutions. As I look at the surface- 925mb thermal advection forecasts this morning, it still appears the better surge of the front and it`s low level cool advection will continue to occur from our western Big Country areas westward across the higher terrain of western parts of the state. Areas along and south of highway 380 will still have the potential to see triple-digit temperatures, just not as extreme as previous days, thus with deep mixing today and low RH values, I plan no additional Heat Advisory for today. There will be a pre- frontal wind shift initially this morning as winds become light west or northwest less than 10 mph, but don`t fool this as the front as no low level thermal advection will be associated with this feature with winds eventually veering northerly near 10 mph by midday/early afternoon across primarily North TX, as frontal passage delays until early evening for most of Central TX. The only areas that will see true low level cold advection will likely be the northwest counties into the Red River Valley, where highs should be stunted by the time they reach the middle 90s. I have issued another strongly worded fire danger statement for those areas generally along the Highway 180 corridor west of I-35 (which includes the ever-expanding Dempsey Fire near Graford), to western Central TX along and west of I-35/35W. The front will continue to progress into Central TX this evening, as low level cold advection, albeit shallow through the lower 2000 feet or so continues advancing southward. The arriving thermal advection and pressure rises will drive NNE-NE winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts in excess of 20 mph tonight, before the front loses steam on Monday across South-Central TX. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will occur this evening with the cold front, though upper support will lacking, as will any cap to inhibit convective develop. With the Dempsey Fire near Graford only 12% contained, I did add some smokey haze into the forecast for this afternoon and evening for primarily the US-281 corridor in Central TX, as shifting winds drive the smoke plume south- southwestward. As noted in my discussion 24 hours ago, the hot temperatures and steep low level lapse rates will drive very gusty outflow, or downburst winds. If there`s any assist from dry pockets within the mid levels, then certainly a severe downburst or two can`t be ruled out during the evening hours. Otherwise, with the thermal advection, scattered rain chances, and additional cloud cover, Monday looks to be the beginning of relatively cooler temperatures ranging between 85-90 degrees north of I-20, the lower-mid 90s across Central TX. This will almost seem cool compared to the past 3 days. Scattered showers and storms will continue across Central TX, with isolated storms as far north as the I-20/30 corridors. Not everybody will see significant rainfall, but think we can all agree the cooler temperatures are quite welcomed! 05/Marty && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Monday Night Onward/ Precipitation will have ended across most of North Texas Monday evening, but scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may linger across Central Texas through midnight. A cooler night is expected with lows ranging from the upper 60s along the Red River to low 70s elsewhere. Although the front will be located further south across the Texas Hill Country on Tuesday, a few showers and thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon hours across Central Texas on Tuesday. Any activity would dissipate with the loss of daytime heating with near normal temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A gradual warm up begins on Wednesday, as low level southerly to southeasterly flow returns and mid level ridging slowly builds. Meanwhile, an area of weak low pressure is expected to develop off the Texas Coast and result in daily low rain/storm chances across our far southeastern counties each afternoon late week, which is where the higher moisture content will be. PoPs remain capped at 20% at this time, but adjustments are likely as this feature is captured by future high-res guidance better. Otherwise, high temperatures through the end of the week should climb into the upper 90s into next weekend. Garcia && .AVIATION... /Issued 117 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022/ /06z TAFs/ Challenges: Surface wind shifts w/FROPA after 15z and potential for VCTS by/after 00z Monday. S winds less than 10 knots will shift SW around 12z, before shifting W by 15z. Afterward, is a bit more challenging and problematic, as models aren`t not agreeing on FROPA timing. I leaned toward a RAP/HRRR timing with FROPA. We`ll likely see N flow less than 10 kts by 18z, becoming NNE-NE 10 to 15 kts, with a few gusts to 20 kts by 21z and beyond when shallow thermal differences begin to aide in driving wind speeds. It`ll be a tricky day at DFW/DAL/AFW on adjusting their flows, but this is generally my best guess at this time. It will be VFR throughout thanks to hot summertime temperatures around the century mark and high cloud bases, though certainly tonight I couldn`t rule out some spotty MVFR cigs with any TS with +RA after 00z Monday. We`ll continue to refine things as trends become more clear throughout the day into tonight. 05/Marty && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 75 91 72 93 / 20 30 20 10 5 Waco 102 76 93 74 93 / 10 30 40 20 20 Paris 98 71 86 66 88 / 20 20 20 0 5 Denton 99 71 88 69 91 / 20 30 20 5 5 McKinney 99 72 88 67 90 / 20 30 20 5 5 Dallas 101 75 90 73 92 / 20 30 20 5 5 Terrell 102 74 91 70 93 / 20 30 30 5 5 Corsicana 101 75 91 72 93 / 20 30 30 10 10 Temple 100 75 92 71 92 / 10 30 50 30 20 Mineral Wells 101 70 89 69 93 / 20 30 20 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$