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Forecast Discussion for FWD NWS Office
000
FXUS64 KFWD 030054
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
754 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020


.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday Night/

The short term forecast will feature periods of unsettled
weather and cooler temperatures with the arrival of a strong cold
front. There is a potential for strong to severe thunderstorms
Friday afternoon/evening into Saturday morning, mainly across
Central Texas. There also exists a potential for flooding due to
heavy rain.

Showers and embedded thunderstorms are ongoing across Central
Texas this evening and will continue to move east/northeast,
mainly confined to near and south of the I-20 corridor. This
activity should diminish within the next few hours and result in a
brief lull of showers and thunderstorms tonight. Some drizzle may
be observed as low-level moisture is advected northward tonight
ahead of the strong cold front.

The cold front, which currently extends from the Plains towards
the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, will approach the region from the
northwest tonight. While there are some discrepancies on the
timing and speed of the front, the forecast remains sided with the
latest NAM guidance since the model has a better handle on shallow
cold fronts. Based on the timing of the system, our afternoon
temperatures will range from the mid to upper 50s across the
northwest to upper 70s across the southeast.

Despite overcast skies, persistent southerly flow ahead of the
cold front will result in CAPE values near 2000-2500 J/kg
tomorrow afternoon across Central Texas. Forcing for ascent
associated with the front, along with high moisture content and
instability would support a threat for large hail with any strong
to severe thunderstorms. The speed of the front will play a factor
in which areas across the southeast will have the best potential
for strong/severe thunderstorms. A faster/slower moving front
will result in the risk shifting further southeast/northeast. The
high moisture content will also result in a risk for flooding
across Central Texas Friday evening and night, especially across
areas that have received abundant rainfall over the past few
weeks.

Garcia

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 343 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020/
/Saturday through next Thursday/

The active weather continues this weekend and unfortunately through
next week. At this time, the highest rain chances continues to be
on Saturday, Monday and again later in the week. We will get a
few breaks from the rain, but most of the region will see multiple
rounds of showers and storms by the time next weekend arrives. In
addition to the rain chances, a warming trend is in the forecast
for next week. Afternoon temperatures will easily reach the mid to
upper 80s by the middle of next week.

A cool and wet Saturday is expected across all North and Central TX.
We will wake up with temperatures in the 40s, but it will only
warm up into the 50s to low 60s Saturday afternoon. With the
cooler airmass in place, the wet weather and the overcast skies
will keep the temperatures 10-18 degrees below normal for early
April. In terms of the precipitation, areas along and south of I-20
will have the highest rain and storm chances as a disturbance
moves in from the southwest. It will mainly be showers, but a few
embedded thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon and
evening. We can`t rule out some flooding issues across parts of
Central TX, especially over the areas that receive heavy rain
Friday evening/night. We might get a break from the rain Saturday
night, but rain chances increase again on Sunday.

As we`ve been advertising over the last few days, more rain is
coming next week. Both the GFS and ECMWF show southwest flow
aloft with multiple disturbances traveling over the southern
Plains. This, combined with the fact that we will stay in the
warm sector every day, will result in multiple rounds of showers
and embedded thunderstorms through at least next Friday. No severe
weather is expected at this time, however, a much stronger storm
system is set to arrive late next week and will bring better lift
for more widespread storm chances. We will continue to monitor
the trends over the next few days. With these multi-day rain
chances, we are looking at rainfall totals ranging from the 1-2.5"
across North Texas and over 3" across parts of Central TX. This
means that there will be some flooding issues each day, especially
across far south Central TX. Additional rises on rivers and
creeks may also occur. It is important to mention that if these
totals verify, some locations will receive their normal rainfall
totals for April in just the first two weeks of the month.
Continue to monitor the forecast over the next couple of days for
updates on specific details!

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Concerns: MVFR/IFR ceilings, FROPA, and SHRA/TSRA.

SHRA and embedded TSRA continue to track across Central Texas,
mainly impacting the ACT terminal. Some of this activity may skirt
the Metroplex terminals, but expect most activity, if any, to
remain as showers.

Poor flying conditions will prevail across all terminals through
the forecast period. MVFR ceilings will prevail across the
Metroplex, while a period of IFR ceilings will be possible early
Friday morning. Some guidance has hinted at IFR ceilings
approaching the Metroplex terminals, but will keep MVFR ceilings
and adjust in subsequent TAF issuances if guidance continues to
trend towards the IFR category. Otherwise, southerly flow will
persist through Friday morning.

A strong cold front will result in northerly winds and a potential
for SHRA/TSRA across the region. FROPA is expected at the
Metroplex sites around midday and at ACT a few hours later. The
best potential for TSRA remains at ACT tomorrow afternoon, but a
few SHRA with isolated TSRA ahead of the front may develop across
the Metroplex sites. Northerly winds with speeds of around 15
knots with higher gusts will prevail through Friday evening.

Garcia

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  67  45  60  53 /  20  50  30  50  30
Waco                65  74  47  60  55 /  50  80  60  60  40
Paris               60  66  45  62  53 /  20  70  60  50  30
Denton              62  66  44  59  51 /  20  40  30  40  30
McKinney            62  65  44  60  52 /  20  60  40  40  30
Dallas              63  68  46  60  54 /  20  60  40  50  30
Terrell             63  73  45  62  53 /  20  80  60  50  30
Corsicana           63  74  47  61  55 /  40  80  60  60  40
Temple              64  76  48  60  55 /  60  70  70  70  40
Mineral Wells       61  63  44  57  50 /  10  30  20  50  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

22/06

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion

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