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FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 19, 5:43 PM CST

519 FXUS64 KFWD 192343 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 543 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2020 .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1055 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020/ /This afternoon through Monday Afternoon/ After a cold start to the morning with many stations near or below freezing, temperatures will steadily warm through the afternoon under full sun. However, surface heating will be offset by weak cold air advection keeping afternoon highs a few degrees below normal (low to mid 50s). The good news is that wind speeds will remain generally below 10 mph so it will be a fairly pleasant afternoon for late January. A mostly clear sky, light wind and dry airmass in place will allow temperatures to cool rapidly after sunset. Most locations should fall to or slightly below freezing by sunrise Monday, but will steadily warm through the day with waning cold air advection and plenty of sun. Overall, temperatures should be a degree or two warmer on Monday than today (mid 50s). The exception will be the northeast zones where weak cold air advection will linger the longest, keeping high temperatures around 50 degrees. 79 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 203 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2020/ /Monday Night through Next Weekend/ /Monday Night - Tuesday/ Dry and seasonable weather will remain ongoing at the start of the period as ridging aloft will be in place. A shortwave rounding the eastern flank of the ridge will push a back-door front in from the northeast Monday night. This reinforcement of cool air will likely keep Tuesday high temperatures in the 40s for areas east and north of the DFW Metroplex, with lower and mid 50s expected elsewhere. Another factor which may also aid in the chilly conditions on Tuesday will be clouds increasing rapidly as a shortwave trough quickly approaches from the west. Good forcing for ascent will arrive late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening, but the limiting factor for precipitation will be the lack of moisture. However, it appears that the atmosphere will moisten up enough for scattered showers to eventually develop during the evening hours. Precip will begin across the western half of the region Tuesday evening, then spread east across the I-35 corridor around midnight. Rainfall totals should remain limited to half an inch or less. /Tuesday night - Wednesday Night/ During the overnight and into Wednesday morning hours, as precipitation spreads into the cooler airmass behind the back-door front, there is the potential for a brief period of a snow-rain mix. This would be for areas east of I-35 and north of I-20, or roughly northeast of a line from Sherman to Canton. Temperatures during that time would be at or above freezing and accumulations are unlikely. As the initial batch of precipitation exits the region Wednesday afternoon, more rain will develop immediately in its wake as a second and sharper trough deepens over the Southern Plains. Showers will increase roughly along the I-35 corridor Wednesday afternoon and evening before again spreading through the eastern half of the forecast area Wednesday night. Mid level lapse rates associated with the second batch of rain will support elevated convection, and forecast grids will continue to mention isolated thunder. Slightly higher rainfall totals will be possible where any embedded thunderstorms occur, which could produce nuisance flooding and minor rises on area rivers. /Thursday through Next Weekend/ The shortwave will kick off to the east on Thursday as an upper low deepens over the Central Plains. This low is progged to drop southeastward from Oklahoma/Kansas into Arkansas/Missouri Thursday night. One last batch of precipitation will be possible across the northeastern zones due to the proximity of the low, but with the atmosphere being moisture-starved, rain chances will remain fairly low. Will likely keep some chance to slight chance POPs east of I-35 through Thursday night, with precipitation coming to an end by Friday. The upper low will turn eastward and continue across the eastern part of the CONUS from Friday onward, placing North and Central Texas beneath a mid and upper ridge. Another couple of days of dry and seasonable weather will be the result, making for a nice weekend across the region. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ Concerns: None...VFR with increasing cirrostratus between FL180-FL250 associated with a passing mid level impulse in NW flow aloft. The broad surface ridge currently draped across the area will slowly migrate east through Monday afternoon. N/NE winds less than 10 knots this evening will likely become variable overnight...before veering light SE around 5 knots after 18z Monday. No precipitation or convection is expected. 05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 33 54 33 52 38 / 0 0 0 5 70 Waco 32 55 31 54 38 / 0 0 0 5 70 Paris 29 50 30 46 35 / 0 0 0 0 40 Denton 31 53 32 51 39 / 0 0 0 5 70 McKinney 31 52 31 50 39 / 0 0 0 0 60 Dallas 33 54 33 52 39 / 0 0 0 0 60 Terrell 31 53 31 51 38 / 0 0 0 0 50 Corsicana 33 54 33 53 39 / 0 0 0 0 60 Temple 33 55 36 54 41 / 0 0 0 5 70 Mineral Wells 30 55 33 52 39 / 5 0 0 10 80 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 05/12

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19.Jan.2020


DALLAS FORT WORTH Jan 19 Climate Report: High: 54 Low: 32 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0

633 CDUS44 KFWD 192226 CLIDFW CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 426 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2020......................................THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 19 2020... VALID AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1898 TO 2020 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL.................................................................. TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 54 359 PM 84 1952 57 -3 61 MINIMUM 32 614 AM 5 1943 35 -3 30 AVERAGE 43 PRECIPITATION (IN) TODAY 0.00 1.77 1935 0.07 -0.07 T MONTH TO DATE 3.93 1.21 2.72 1.56 SINCE DEC 1 5.10 3.76 1.34 6.11 SINCE JAN 1 3.93 1.21 2.72 1.56 SNOWFALL (IN) TODAY 0.0 1.7 1948 0.0 0.0 T MONTH TO DATE 0.2 0.1 0.1 T SINCE DEC 1 0.2 0.4 -0.2 T SINCE JUL 1 0.2 0.4 -0.2 T SNOW DEPTH 0.................................................................. WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 13 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION N (10) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 16 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION N (10) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 6.8.......................................................... THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW NORMAL RECORD YEAR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 57 83 1986 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 35 10 1985 SUNRISE AND SUNSET JANUARY 19 2020.......SUNRISE 730 AM CST SUNSET 548 PM CST JANUARY 20 2020.......SUNRISE 730 AM CST SUNSET 549 PM CST - INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS. R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED. MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING. T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT. $$

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19.Jan.2020


WACO Jan 19 Climate Report: High: 55 Low: 34 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0

486 CDUS44 KFWD 192226 CLIACT CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 426 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2020......................................THE WACO CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 19 2020... VALID AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1901 TO 2020 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL.................................................................. TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 55 356 PM 84 1952 58 -3 62 MINIMUM 34 747 AM 7 1940 36 -2 34 AVERAGE 45 PRECIPITATION (IN) TODAY 0.00 1.05 1958 0.06 -0.06 T MONTH TO DATE 1.33 1.22 0.11 3.61 SINCE DEC 1 2.07 3.97 -1.90 8.34 SINCE JAN 1 1.33 1.22 0.11 3.61 SNOWFALL (IN) TODAY 0.0 1.5 1936 0.0 0.0 0.0 MONTH TO DATE 0.0 0.2 -0.2 0.0 SINCE DEC 1 0.0 0.2 -0.2 0.0 SINCE JUL 1 0.0 0.3 -0.3 0.0 SNOW DEPTH 0.................................................................. WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 18 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION NE (40) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 22 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION NE (30) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 9.6.......................................................... THE WACO CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW NORMAL RECORD YEAR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 58 81 1986 1972 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 36 10 1940 SUNRISE AND SUNSET JANUARY 19 2020.......SUNRISE 728 AM CST SUNSET 551 PM CST JANUARY 20 2020.......SUNRISE 728 AM CST SUNSET 552 PM CST - INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS. R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED. MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING. T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT. $$

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19.Jan.2020


FWD issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Jan 19, 2:50 PM CST

776 FLUS44 KFWD 192050 HWOFWD Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 250 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2020 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201215- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 250 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday through Wednesday night. Cloud to ground lighting strikes are the main hazard. No severe weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$

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19.Jan.2020


FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 19, 2:03 PM CST

476 FXUS64 KFWD 192003 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 203 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2020 .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1055 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020/ /This afternoon through Monday Afternoon/ After a cold start to the morning with many stations near or below freezing, temperatures will steadily warm through the afternoon under full sun. However, surface heating will be offset by weak cold air advection keeping afternoon highs a few degrees below normal (low to mid 50s). The good news is that wind speeds will remain generally below 10 mph so it will be a fairly pleasant afternoon for late January. A mostly clear sky, light wind and dry airmass in place will allow temperatures to cool rapidly after sunset. Most locations should fall to or slightly below freezing by sunrise Monday, but will steadily warm through the day with waning cold air advection and plenty of sun. Overall, temperatures should be a degree or two warmer on Monday than today (mid 50s). The exception will be the northeast zones where weak cold air advection will linger the longest, keeping high temperatures around 50 degrees. 79 && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Monday Night through Next Weekend/ /Monday Night - Tuesday/ Dry and seasonable weather will remain ongoing at the start of the period as ridging aloft will be in place. A shortwave rounding the eastern flank of the ridge will push a back-door front in from the northeast Monday night. This reinforcement of cool air will likely keep Tuesday high temperatures in the 40s for areas east and north of the DFW Metroplex, with lower and mid 50s expected elsewhere. Another factor which may also aid in the chilly conditions on Tuesday will be clouds increasing rapidly as a shortwave trough quickly approaches from the west. Good forcing for ascent will arrive late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening, but the limiting factor for precipitation will be the lack of moisture. However, it appears that the atmosphere will moisten up enough for scattered showers to eventually develop during the evening hours. Precip will begin across the western half of the region Tuesday evening, then spread east across the I-35 corridor around midnight. Rainfall totals should remain limited to half an inch or less. /Tuesday night - Wednesday Night/ During the overnight and into Wednesday morning hours, as precipitation spreads into the cooler airmass behind the back-door front, there is the potential for a brief period of a snow-rain mix. This would be for areas east of I-35 and north of I-20, or roughly northeast of a line from Sherman to Canton. Temperatures during that time would be at or above freezing and accumulations are unlikely. As the initial batch of precipitation exits the region Wednesday afternoon, more rain will develop immediately in its wake as a second and sharper trough deepens over the Southern Plains. Showers will increase roughly along the I-35 corridor Wednesday afternoon and evening before again spreading through the eastern half of the forecast area Wednesday night. Mid level lapse rates associated with the second batch of rain will support elevated convection, and forecast grids will continue to mention isolated thunder. Slightly higher rainfall totals will be possible where any embedded thunderstorms occur, which could produce nuisance flooding and minor rises on area rivers. /Thursday through Next Weekend/ The shortwave will kick off to the east on Thursday as an upper low deepens over the Central Plains. This low is progged to drop southeastward from Oklahoma/Kansas into Arkansas/Missouri Thursday night. One last batch of precipitation will be possible across the northeastern zones due to the proximity of the low, but with the atmosphere being moisture-starved, rain chances will remain fairly low. Will likely keep some chance to slight chance POPs east of I-35 through Thursday night, with precipitation coming to an end by Friday. The upper low will turn eastward and continue across the eastern part of the CONUS from Friday onward, placing North and Central Texas beneath a mid and upper ridge. Another couple of days of dry and seasonable weather will be the result, making for a nice weekend across the region. 30 && .AVIATION... /Issued 1055 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020/ /18Z TAFs/ Dry northwest flow aloft and high pressure at the surface will result in VFR conditions across the entire region through Monday afternoon. The only clouds will be some high cirrus late this afternoon and evening associated with a passing shortwave. A north wind will prevail at all TAF sites through Monday morning at speeds below 10 knots. The wind will begin to veer during the day Monday but will remain light. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 33 54 33 52 38 / 0 0 0 5 70 Waco 32 55 31 54 38 / 0 0 0 5 70 Paris 29 50 30 46 35 / 0 0 0 0 40 Denton 31 53 32 51 39 / 0 0 0 5 70 McKinney 31 52 31 50 39 / 0 0 0 0 60 Dallas 33 54 33 52 39 / 0 0 0 0 60 Terrell 31 53 31 51 38 / 0 0 0 0 50 Corsicana 33 54 33 53 39 / 0 0 0 0 60 Temple 33 55 36 54 41 / 0 0 0 5 70 Mineral Wells 30 55 33 52 39 / 5 0 0 10 70 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 30/79

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19.Jan.2020


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