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FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 1, 2:47 AM CDT ...New Long Term...

885 FXUS64 KFWD 010747 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 247 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1121 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022/ /This Weekend/ A deep latitudinal, albeit relatively weak upper ridge will remain right on top of the Southern Plains and nation's Heartland through the weekend. Very little fluctuation or movement of the ridge is expected the next 48 hours, as this feature will be sandwiched between fairly deep troughs over the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard (pretty much Ian's extratropical remnants) and a closed northern Rockies/Plains upper low. A broad and stout surface ridge emanating from the eastern provinces of Canada into the Southern Plains/Ozarks will also remain steady-state and keep a dry and near seasonal airmass across North-Central TX. The GoM will remain shut down with the main weather feature of concern being continued, or even increasing drought conditions and fire weather concerns as noted by the uptick of fires this past week. Fortunately, wind speeds are expected to remain relatively light at 10 mph or less from the east or southeast throughout the weekend. The mostly clear conditions and dry airmass will result in prime radiative cooling each morning with lows in the 50s, with even a few readings across protective wooded areas of East Texas possible falling briefly into the upper 40s each morning just before sunrise. Each day will see a large diurnal range in warm up within the dry airmass, as highs easily surge back up into the 80s, with a few readings across the Big Country possibly reaching the 90 degree mark. 05/Marty && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Sunday Night through Friday/ An upper ridge will remain over the Central and Southern Plains through early next week keeping North and Central Texas rain- free with near seasonal temperatures. We still anticipate some high clouds associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Orlene on Sunday night/Monday but these clouds will move quickly to the east Monday night and should have little influence on temperatures. The upper ridge axis will translate to the east Tuesday through Wednesday, while an upper trough moves across the Northern and Central Plains. Southerly low level flow will return to the region in response to a developing surface trough across the Central Plains. However, low level moisture will not noticeably increase across North and Central Texas since much of the Gulf will keep northeast flow at least through Wednesday. The upper pattern will change the second half of the week with an upper ridge developing across the western CONUS and a long wave trough taking shape across the central and east. This pattern will place the Lone Star State in dry northwest flow aloft and allow a cold front to move across the region Thursday night and Friday. The front will come through dry, bringing little more than a wind shift and a slight cool down. Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals through next week with highs mainly in the 80s and lows in the 50s and lower 60s. .Fire Weather... The threat for new fire starts will remain elevated through next week due to abundant dry fuels and low relative humidity. However, since wind speeds should remain generally less than 15 mph, the threat for significant wildfires will still be relatively low. The only exception may be at the end of the week behind a cold front when northerly winds will likely increase. 79 && .AVIATION... /Issued 1121 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022/ /06z TAFs/ No concerns are anticipated this weekend across the D10 airspace and across Central Texas, as a VFR forecast with primarily E winds 10 kts or less expected, with winds at times become light n' variable nocturnally during the prime decoupling hours. 05/Marty && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 58 84 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 85 53 86 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 82 51 83 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 83 53 84 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 83 53 85 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 83 58 85 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 82 52 83 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 83 53 84 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 85 53 86 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 85 53 85 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

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01.Oct.2022


WACO Sep 30 Climate Report: High: 89 Low: 54 Precip: 0.0" Snow: Missing

642 CDUS44 KFWD 010636 CLIACT CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 136 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2022......................................THE WACO CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR SEPTEMBER 30 2022... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1901 TO 2022 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 89 335 PM 100 1977 87 2 92 MINIMUM 54 650 AM 44 1916 62 -8 67 1984 AVERAGE 72 74 -2 80 PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 0.00 1.80 1943 0.10 -0.10 0.77 MONTH TO DATE 0.41 2.87 -2.46 0.94 SINCE SEP 1 0.41 2.87 -2.46 0.94 SINCE JAN 1 11.81 26.41 -14.60 27.84 DEGREE DAYS HEATING YESTERDAY 0 0 0 0 MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0 SINCE SEP 1 0 0 0 0 SINCE JUL 1 0 0 0 0 COOLING YESTERDAY 7 10 -3 15 MONTH TO DATE 497 416 81 452 SINCE SEP 1 497 416 81 452 SINCE JAN 1 3374 2657 717 2536................................................................... WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 13 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION NE (40) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 17 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION NE (40) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 4.0 SKY COVER POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.0 WEATHER CONDITIONS THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT) HIGHEST 74 700 AM LOWEST 21 400 PM AVERAGE 48.......................................................... THE WACO CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY NORMAL RECORD YEAR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 86 100 1977 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 62 42 1939 SUNRISE AND SUNSET OCTOBER 1 2022.......SUNRISE 723 AM CDT SUNSET 714 PM CDT OCTOBER 2 2022.......SUNRISE 723 AM CDT SUNSET 712 PM CDT - INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS. R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED. MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING. T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT. $$

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01.Oct.2022


DALLAS/FORT WORTH Sep 30 Climate Report: High: 81 Low: 58 Precip: 0.0" Snow: Missing

643 CDUS44 KFWD 010636 CLIDFW CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 136 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2022......................................THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR SEPTEMBER 30 2022... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1898 TO 2022 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 81 354 PM 98 1953 84 -3 89 1977 MINIMUM 58 651 AM 43 1984 63 -5 69 AVERAGE 70 74 -4 79 PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 0.00 1.87 1903 0.08 -0.08 0.06 MONTH TO DATE 0.33 2.72 -2.39 0.25 SINCE SEP 1 0.33 2.72 -2.39 0.25 SINCE JAN 1 23.42 27.27 -3.85 27.09 DEGREE DAYS HEATING YESTERDAY 0 0 0 0 MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0 SINCE SEP 1 0 0 0 0 SINCE JUL 1 0 0 0 0 COOLING YESTERDAY 5 9 -4 14 MONTH TO DATE 473 410 63 474 SINCE SEP 1 473 410 63 474 SINCE JAN 1 3248 2638 610 2605................................................................... WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 10 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION SE (150) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 15 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION SE (130) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 5.7 SKY COVER POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.0 WEATHER CONDITIONS THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT) HIGHEST 58 700 AM LOWEST 27 400 PM AVERAGE 43.......................................................... THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY NORMAL RECORD YEAR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 84 102 1979 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 63 42 1984 SUNRISE AND SUNSET OCTOBER 1 2022.......SUNRISE 722 AM CDT SUNSET 713 PM CDT OCTOBER 2 2022.......SUNRISE 723 AM CDT SUNSET 711 PM CDT - INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS. R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED. MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING. T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT. $$

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01.Oct.2022


FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 30, 11:21 PM CDT ...New Short Term, Aviation...

967 FXUS64 KFWD 010421 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1121 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /This Weekend/ An deep latitudinal, albeit relatively weak upper ridge will remain right on top of the Southern Plains and nation's Heartland through the weekend. Very little fluctuation or movement of the ridge is expected the next 48 hours, as this feature will be sandwiched between fairly deep troughs over the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard (pretty much Ian's extratropical remnants) and a closed northern Rockies/Plains upper low. A broad and stout surface ridge emanating from the eastern provinces of Canada into the Southern Plains/Ozarks will also remain steady-state and keep a dry and near seasonal airmass across North-Central TX. The GoM will remain shut down with the main weather feature of concern being continued, or even increasing drought conditions and fire weather concerns as noted by the uptick of fires this past week. Fortunately, wind speeds are expected to remain relatively light at 10 mph or less from the east or southeast throughout the weekend. The mostly clear conditions and dry airmass will result in prime radiative cooling each morning with lows in the 50s, with even a few readings across protective wooded areas of East Texas possible falling briefly into the upper 40s each morning just before sunrise. Each day will see a large diurnal range in warm up within the dry airmass, as highs easily surge back up into the 80s, with a few readings across the Big Country possibly reaching the 90 degree mark. 05/Marty && .LONG TERM... /Issued 327 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022/ /Saturday Night through Friday/ The weather pattern over the latter half of the weekend through next week will continue to feature rain free conditions with mostly clear skies and low humidity. This will support a fairly wide diurnal temperature range with highs in the mid/upper 80s and early morning lows in the 50s through the week. The remnants of Ian will remain well to our east, while weak mid level ridging will remain in place across the Southern Plains. A plume of very dry air currently on the back side of Ian will steadily creep into the Southern Plains over the weekend as broad northeast flow above the surface persists. This dry air, combined with temperatures in the 80s and the lack of any substantial rainfall over the last few weeks, will continue to support above normal grassfire activity across the region. Afternoon humidity will drop to between 15-25% each day over the next week. Despite generally light winds, sporadic fire starts will be common. High level moisture from landfalling Tropical Storm Orlene in central Mexico will spread into North Texas late Sunday into Monday. This will be mainly in the form of high cloud cover and should quickly move east by Monday night. Otherwise, an amplifying ridge over the western U.S. toward the latter part of next week should result in northwest flow through the Plains and will send a cold front into North Texas by Friday. It still looks like moisture will be very limited at this time with only a few degrees being shaved off of afternoon high temperatures. Dunn && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06z TAFs/ No concerns are anticipated this weekend across the D10 airspace and across Central Texas, as a VFR forecast with primarily E winds 10 kts or less expected, with winds at times become light n' variable nocturnally during the prime decoupling hours. 05/Marty && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 56 83 58 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 51 85 53 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 49 82 51 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 51 83 53 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 50 83 53 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 56 83 58 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 50 82 52 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 52 83 53 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 52 85 53 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 52 85 53 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

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01.Oct.2022


FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 30, 6:35 PM CDT ...New Short Term, Aviation...

280 FXUS64 KFWD 302335 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 635 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Sunday Morning/ Quiet conditions are expected over the short term forecast period in response to continued ridging aloft and overall easterly flow. Lower moisture, clear skies, and lighter winds will allow for another bout of steep diurnal temperature variation during the day and efficient radiational cooling at night. Morning lows are forecast to dip down into the 50s, though some spots in both East Texas and Eastern Central Texas should see the upper 40s on Saturday morning. The afternoon hours on Saturday will be warm, with high temperatures peaking in the 80s. These temperatures are at or a couple degrees below typical of this time of year, with DFW and Waco having an October 1st normal climatological temperature of 84 and 86, respectively. Easterly surface winds will persist, with exception to periods of light and variable winds in the early morning hours both Saturday and Sunday. Low afternoon humidity and persisting drought conditions will allow for continued elevated fire weather concerns over the short term period, especially out west where afternoon humidity is lower and a higher abundance of cured fuels are located. However, lower wind speeds around 10 mph or less will help to mitigate rapid spread and growth. Regardless, continue to practice fire safety and keep up to date with the current forecast and outdoor conditions. Prater && .LONG TERM... /Issued 327 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022/ /Saturday Night through Friday/ The weather pattern over the latter half of the weekend through next week will continue to feature rain free conditions with mostly clear skies and low humidity. This will support a fairly wide diurnal temperature range with highs in the mid/upper 80s and early morning lows in the 50s through the week. The remnants of Ian will remain well to our east, while weak mid level ridging will remain in place across the Southern Plains. A plume of very dry air currently on the back side of Ian will steadily creep into the Southern Plains over the weekend as broad northeast flow above the surface persists. This dry air, combined with temperatures in the 80s and the lack of any substantial rainfall over the last few weeks, will continue to support above normal grassfire activity across the region. Afternoon humidity will drop to between 15-25% each day over the next week. Despite generally light winds, sporadic fire starts will be common. High level moisture from landfalling Tropical Storm Orlene in central Mexico will spread into North Texas late Sunday into Monday. This will be mainly in the form of high cloud cover and should quickly move east by Monday night. Otherwise, an amplifying ridge over the western U.S. toward the latter part of next week should result in northwest flow through the Plains and will send a cold front into North Texas by Friday. It still looks like moisture will be very limited at this time with only a few degrees being shaved off of afternoon high temperatures. Dunn && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR will persist through the end of the period at all TAF sites. Easterly to southeasterly flow with speeds around 6 kts or less will continue over the next 24-30 hours. Prater && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 56 83 57 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 51 86 53 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 49 81 52 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 50 83 52 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 49 82 51 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 57 82 59 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 51 81 52 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 52 83 54 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 52 86 53 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 51 86 52 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

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30.Sep.2022


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