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FWD issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Dec 10, 11:54 AM CST

767 FLUS44 KFWD 101754 AAA HWOFWD Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1154 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111215- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 1154 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Through Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. There is a low chance for thunderstorms mainly along and east of I- 35 Sunday night through Monday night. Severe weather is not expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$ Bain

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10.Dec.2019


FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 10, 6:11 AM CST

138 FXUS64 KFWD 101211 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 611 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019 .UPDATE... Quick update concerning snow potential through the next few hours. The 12Z FWD sounding sampled +5.8C at 900 mb which is considerably warmer than previous runs of the HRRR/RAP guidance for this time. The latest RAP guidance appears to have caught on to the depth of the warm nose and continues a warmer trend over the next few hours despite strong dynamic forcing for ascent. While there will likely be some cooling of this layer, it is appearing less likely that we'll see all snow. There is some dry air beneath 850 mb and this will support some wet-bulb cooling and will result in thermal profiles conducive for sleet mixing with rain mainly from Comanche to Fort Worth to Paris through mid morning. In the meantime, we'll lower snow probabilities and slightly nudge up sleet probabilities through mid morning and continue to monitor any further changes over the next few hours. Dunn && .AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ Despite light to moderate rain for much of the night, VFR cigs generally prevail from the Metroplex northward. Cigs deteriorate rapidly to the south where low level moisture is better. IFR conditions will continue south and east of the Metroplex through mid morning before improving. We'll continue to advertise a few more hours of rainfall at the Metroplex airports, before drier air filters in from the north and conditions improve. We've removed the mention of RASN for now, although there could be a few sleet pellets mixing in with rain through mid morning. This shouldn't be a significant issue with no accumulation expected. At Waco, the MVFR/IFR conditions will persist through much of the morning with conditions improving early this afternoon as precipitation comes to an end. VFR is expected overnight into Wednesday. Dunn && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 336 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019/ /Today and Tonight/ Water vapor imagery this morning shows a large upper trough digging through the Central U.S. with a compact trailing shortwave centered over the northern Mexican state of Chihuahua, southwest of El Paso. To the east of this shortwave is a large area of enhanced mid and upper level clouds streaming northeast, indicative of strong forcing for ascent. Across North Texas, a cold airmass has settled into the region with temperatures in the mid and upper 30s with brisk north winds. A large area of light to moderate rain extends from the Big Bend northeast across the region and into the Arklatex. The main concern over the last 24 hours has been the potential for rain to transition to a wintry mix across parts of North Texas, and there is still some concern for this to happen through the morning hours, although low level temperatures have trended a touch warmer over the last several hours. Dual-pol analysis from the Dyess AFB radar shows a fairly extensive bright band signal in reflectivity from western Tarrant County southwest through Erath and into Comanche County. Correlation coefficient data show a well defined area of mixed phased hydrometeors between 3000-8000 ft AGL. This is essentially snow that is falling and melting in a warm layer above the surface, becoming a mix of snow and rain. Further melting results in a transition to all rain around 3000 ft AGL and a corresponding increase in correlation coefficient. This data helps support RAP and HRRR model analysis of the low level thermal profile, which both indicate a warm nose between 925-850 mb. This warm nose is about a degree warmer in the latest few runs as opposed to RAP/HRRR runs from late yesterday evening. So is it going to snow? As is usually the case around here, it's difficult to say for sure, but it is likely we'll see at least some wintry mix through the morning hours across parts of the region. The bright banding on Dyess radar has expanded in coverage over the last hour and lowered some in height, which indicates that the mix of rain/snow is making it a little closer to the ground. In addition, the near surface layer (just above the ground to around 2000 ft AGL) is getting colder and is below freezing from Eastland to Mineral Wells to Sherman. This would certainly support some re-freezing of melted snow into sleet pellets through the morning. We're fighting an intrusion of dry air from the north as indicated by an abrupt ending of the precipitation northwest of Decatur and cloud ceiling heights still in the 6000-7000 ft AGL range. Despite the rain we've seen, we still haven't fully saturated the lowest levels of the atmosphere. It appears that given the warmer low level thermal profile, we'll mainly see rain through the morning hours. The one caveat that still remains will be the very strong forcing for ascent from the shortwave to the west. This broad lift will peak across North Texas over the next 6 hours with moisture still in place. Strong dynamic ascent can oftentimes cool the thermal profile very quickly and by a greater amount than indicated by the model guidance. If this does indeed occur, then bursts of snow mixed with rain or a quick transition to snow could occur right before the precipitation ends later this morning. Unfortunately, this is often only observed in real time or forecast with very little lead time based on radar/satellite trends. Given that the model guidance appears to be sampling the shortwave well and the thermal profile well, confidence in this happening is generally low. All that being said, rain will continue through the morning hours for most of the region with a steady southward push into the afternoon. We will continue to advertise a chance of snow/sleet from Comanche to Fort Worth to Paris and areas north through the morning, with minimal accumulations and impacts expected. Precipitation will come to an end across our far southern counties by early evening with skies clearing from north to south this afternoon into the evening. It will be a cold night across the region with lows below freezing across the entire area. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 336 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019/ /Wednesday and Beyond/ Return flow will begin on Wednesday as the axis of a surface ridge shifts to our east and a rapidly-approaching shortwave trough strengthens a surface low to our northwest. The shortwave will swing relatively uneventfully across the Southern Plains, as it will not be able to tap into any significant amount of Gulf moisture until it gets east of the Mississippi Valley. A weak front will accompany the shortwave, but will likely stall before reaching North Texas. This should allow for a gradual warming trend during he second half of the work week. A pair of disturbances will then rotate through the Midwest over the weekend, giving the front enough of a push to make it through the region. The current plan is to follow the faster side of guidance with the front at this time, which brings the boundary through the area on Saturday. Little to no precipitation is expected with the initial passage of the front due to the absence of moisture and lack of any appreciable lift. The next upper level trough will drop southeast from the Pacific Northwest to the Four-Corners region on Sunday, then work its way into the Southern Plains on Monday. Isentropic lift will increase as the system approaches, which will begin our next decent chances for our rain late in the day Sunday. The surface boundary will retreat northward as a warm front Sunday-Sunday night, and may reach the Central Texas counties before pushing south again. The Sunday-Monday temperature forecast hence contains a fairly large spread from north to south. This forecast also includes isolated thunder, as elevated instability looks sufficient for the occasional lightning strike. Pops will be mainly along and east of Interstate 35, with the western third of the region likely remaining dry. The front will surge southward on Monday as the upper trough moves east of the region, ending rain chances from west to east Monday night. After Monday, a cooler than normal and dry period looks likely through most of next week. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 47 31 53 34 54 / 80 0 0 0 0 Waco 45 29 55 31 56 / 100 0 5 0 0 Paris 44 28 51 31 51 / 60 0 0 0 0 Denton 46 28 52 32 54 / 40 0 0 0 0 McKinney 46 29 52 32 53 / 70 0 0 0 0 Dallas 47 30 53 34 54 / 90 0 0 0 0 Terrell 44 29 53 32 54 / 100 0 5 0 0 Corsicana 45 30 54 33 54 / 100 5 5 0 0 Temple 44 30 54 32 56 / 100 0 5 0 0 Mineral Wells 46 25 53 31 54 / 50 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 91

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10.Dec.2019


FWD issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Dec 10, 3:48 AM CST

965 FLUS44 KFWD 100948 HWOFWD Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 348 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111000- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 348 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Some snow or sleet may mix in with rain this morning mainly north and west of a Comanche to Fort Worth to Paris line. Little to no accumulation is expected. Travel should be minimally impacted. All precipitation will end this afternoon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. There is a low chance for thunderstorms mainly along and east of I-35 Sunday night through Monday night. Severe weather is not expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. However, timely reports of snow or sleet are appreciated. $$ Dunn

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10.Dec.2019


FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 10, 3:36 AM CST

478 FXUS64 KFWD 100936 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 336 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019 .SHORT TERM... /Today and Tonight/ Water vapor imagery this morning shows a large upper trough digging through the Central U.S. with a compact trailing shortwave centered over the northern Mexican state of Chihuahua, southwest of El Paso. To the east of this shortwave is a large area of enhanced mid and upper level clouds streaming northeast, indicative of strong forcing for ascent. Across North Texas, a cold airmass has settled into the region with temperatures in the mid and upper 30s with brisk north winds. A large area of light to moderate rain extends from the Big Bend northeast across the region and into the Arklatex. The main concern over the last 24 hours has been the potential for rain to transition to a wintry mix across parts of North Texas, and there is still some concern for this to happen through the morning hours, although low level temperatures have trended a touch warmer over the last several hours. Dual-pol analysis from the Dyess AFB radar shows a fairly extensive bright band signal in reflectivity from western Tarrant County southwest through Erath and into Comanche County. Correlation coefficient data show a well defined area of mixed phased hydrometeors between 3000-8000 ft AGL. This is essentially snow that is falling and melting in a warm layer above the surface, becoming a mix of snow and rain. Further melting results in a transition to all rain around 3000 ft AGL and a corresponding increase in correlation coefficient. This data helps support RAP and HRRR model analysis of the low level thermal profile, which both indicate a warm nose between 925-850 mb. This warm nose is about a degree warmer in the latest few runs as opposed to RAP/HRRR runs from late yesterday evening. So is it going to snow? As is usually the case around here, it's difficult to say for sure, but it is likely we'll see at least some wintry mix through the morning hours across parts of the region. The bright banding on Dyess radar has expanded in coverage over the last hour and lowered some in height, which indicates that the mix of rain/snow is making it a little closer to the ground. In addition, the near surface layer (just above the ground to around 2000 ft AGL) is getting colder and is below freezing from Eastland to Mineral Wells to Sherman. This would certainly support some re-freezing of melted snow into sleet pellets through the morning. We're fighting an intrusion of dry air from the north as indicated by an abrupt ending of the precipitation northwest of Decatur and cloud ceiling heights still in the 6000-7000 ft AGL range. Despite the rain we've seen, we still haven't fully saturated the lowest levels of the atmosphere. It appears that given the warmer low level thermal profile, we'll mainly see rain through the morning hours. The one caveat that still remains will be the very strong forcing for ascent from the shortwave to the west. This broad lift will peak across North Texas over the next 6 hours with moisture still in place. Strong dynamic ascent can oftentimes cool the thermal profile very quickly and by a greater amount than indicated by the model guidance. If this does indeed occur, then bursts of snow mixed with rain or a quick transition to snow could occur right before the precipitation ends later this morning. Unfortunately, this is often only observed in real time or forecast with very little lead time based on radar/satellite trends. Given that the model guidance appears to be sampling the shortwave well and the thermal profile well, confidence in this happening is generally low. All that being said, rain will continue through the morning hours for most of the region with a steady southward push into the afternoon. We will continue to advertise a chance of snow/sleet from Comanche to Fort Worth to Paris and areas north through the morning, with minimal accumulations and impacts expected. Precipitation will come to an end across our far southern counties by early evening with skies clearing from north to south this afternoon into the evening. It will be a cold night across the region with lows below freezing across the entire area. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Wednesday and Beyond/ Return flow will begin on Wednesday as the axis of a surface ridge shifts to our east and a rapidly-approaching shortwave trough strengthens a surface low to our northwest. The shortwave will swing relatively uneventfully across the Southern Plains, as it will not be able to tap into any significant amount of Gulf moisture until it gets east of the Mississippi Valley. A weak front will accompany the shortwave, but will likely stall before reaching North Texas. This should allow for a gradual warming trend during he second half of the work week. A pair of disturbances will then rotate through the Midwest over the weekend, giving the front enough of a push to make it through the region. The current plan is to follow the faster side of guidance with the front at this time, which brings the boundary through the area on Saturday. Little to no precipitation is expected with the initial passage of the front due to the absence of moisture and lack of any appreciable lift. The next upper level trough will drop southeast from the Pacific Northwest to the Four-Corners region on Sunday, then work its way into the Southern Plains on Monday. Isentropic lift will increase as the system approaches, which will begin our next decent chances for our rain late in the day Sunday. The surface boundary will retreat northward as a warm front Sunday-Sunday night, and may reach the Central Texas counties before pushing south again. The Sunday-Monday temperature forecast hence contains a fairly large spread from north to south. This forecast also includes isolated thunder, as elevated instability looks sufficient for the occasional lightning strike. Pops will be mainly along and east of Interstate 35, with the western third of the region likely remaining dry. The front will surge southward on Monday as the upper trough moves east of the region, ending rain chances from west to east Monday night. After Monday, a cooler than normal and dry period looks likely through most of next week. 30 && .AVIATION... /Issued 1141 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019/ /06Z TAFs/ The gradual deterioration of flying conditions across North Texas has begun with the band of rain now impacting both KAFW and KFTW. Through the rest of the night and into the morning hours, this precipitation band is expected to intensify and expand in coverage. Rain is expected to continue for much of the night as persistent forcing for ascent remains in place throughout the region. At Waco, although precipitation has not started yet, gradual moistening has begun and MVFR CIGs are likely in the next few hours. As the rain shield expands through the night, KACT will likely experience rain starting at around 09Z and continue through the mid-morning hours. Cold air advection in the wake of Monday's cold front, in combination with evaporative cooling, is expected to allow for a rain/snow mix to occur at all DFW Metroplex TAF sites for a couple of hours Tuesday morning. The potential window for a rain/snow mix will likely be confined to a window between 6-9AM. Any falling precipitation, especially in the latter half of that window, will be combating the dry air intrusion expected in the mid-levels. Above freezing surface temperatures will prevent any major accumulations from occurring within pavement or concrete surfaces. A quick dusting of snow can't be ruled out on grassy/elevated surfaces, especially in DFW metro's western TAF locations. All precipitation will be coming to an end by the late morning hours, leaving behind a deck of mid and upper level clouds. Winds will remain out of the north through this TAF period, with gusts expected to gradually diminish through the early morning hours. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 47 31 53 34 54 / 80 0 0 0 0 Waco 45 29 55 31 56 / 100 0 5 0 0 Paris 44 28 51 31 51 / 60 0 0 0 0 Denton 46 28 52 32 54 / 40 0 0 0 0 McKinney 46 29 52 32 53 / 70 0 0 0 0 Dallas 47 30 53 34 54 / 90 0 0 0 0 Terrell 44 29 53 32 54 / 100 0 5 0 0 Corsicana 45 30 54 33 54 / 100 5 5 0 0 Temple 44 30 54 32 56 / 100 0 5 0 0 Mineral Wells 46 25 53 31 54 / 50 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 91

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10.Dec.2019


DALLAS FORT WORTH Dec 9 Climate Report: High: 73 Low: 39 Precip: Trace Snow: 0.0

304 CDUS44 KFWD 100642 CLIDFW CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1240 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2019......................................THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR DECEMBER 9 2019... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1898 TO 2019 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL.................................................................. TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 73 1247 PM 79 1906 58 15 50 MINIMUM 39 1159 PM 15 2005 38 1 37 AVERAGE 56 48 8 44 PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY T 2.38 1971 0.09 -0.09 0.00 MONTH TO DATE T 0.77 -0.77 1.28 SINCE DEC 1 T 0.77 -0.77 1.28 SINCE JAN 1 33.35 34.36 -1.01 52.70 SNOWFALL (IN) YESTERDAY 0.0 5.5 1898 0.0 0.0 0.0 MONTH TO DATE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE DEC 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE JUL 1 0.0 T 0.0 0.0 SNOW DEPTH 0 DEGREE DAYS HEATING YESTERDAY 9 17 -8 21 MONTH TO DATE 95 144 -49 165 SINCE DEC 1 95 144 -49 165 SINCE JUL 1 589 498 91 637 COOLING YESTERDAY 0 0 0 0 MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0 SINCE DEC 1 0 0 0 0 SINCE JAN 1 3005 2752 253 3152.................................................................. WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 28 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION N (350) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 33 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION N (360) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 15.5 SKY COVER POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM AVERAGE SKY COVER 1.0 WEATHER CONDITIONS THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY. LIGHT RAIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT) HIGHEST 73 1100 PM LOWEST 33 1200 PM AVERAGE 53.......................................................... THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY NORMAL RECORD YEAR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 58 84 1938 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 38 11 1898 SUNRISE AND SUNSET DECEMBER 10 2019......SUNRISE 720 AM CST SUNSET 522 PM CST DECEMBER 11 2019......SUNRISE 720 AM CST SUNSET 522 PM CST - INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS. R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED. MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING. T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT. $$

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10.Dec.2019


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