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DALLAS FORT WORTH Apr 2 Climate Report: High: 69 Low: 58 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0

877 CDUS44 KFWD 022325 CLIDFW CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 625 PM CDT THU APR 2 2020......................................THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR APRIL 2 2020... VALID AS OF 0600 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1898 TO 2020 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL.................................................................. TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 69 414 PM 94 1918 73 -4 72 MINIMUM 58 539 AM 32 1936 51 7 41 AVERAGE 64 PRECIPITATION (IN) TODAY 0.00 2.14 2017 0.09 -0.09 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 0.00 0.19 -0.19 0.00 SINCE MAR 1 6.75 3.68 3.07 2.01 SINCE JAN 1 15.63 8.47 7.16 4.88 SNOWFALL (IN) TODAY 0.0 0.0 MM 0.0 0.0 0.0 MONTH TO DATE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE MAR 1 0.0 0.2 -0.2 0.0 SINCE JUL 1 0.2 1.6 -1.4 T SNOW DEPTH MM.................................................................. WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 18 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION S (160) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 31 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION SE (150) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 14.4.......................................................... THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW NORMAL RECORD YEAR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 73 95 1989 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 51 30 1987 SUNRISE AND SUNSET APRIL 2 2020.........SUNRISE 714 AM CDT SUNSET 749 PM CDT APRIL 3 2020.........SUNRISE 713 AM CDT SUNSET 750 PM CDT - INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS. R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED. MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING. T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT. $$

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02.Apr.2020


WACO Apr 2 Climate Report: High: 72 Low: 58 Precip: 0.33 Snow: Missing

876 CDUS44 KFWD 022325 CLIACT CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 625 PM CDT THU APR 2 2020......................................THE WACO CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR APRIL 2 2020... VALID AS OF 0600 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1901 TO 2020 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL.................................................................. TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 72 1246 PM 93 1918 74 -2 70 MINIMUM 58 632 AM 34 1975 51 7 39 AVERAGE 65 PRECIPITATION (IN) TODAY 0.33 1.65 1916 0.08 0.25 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 0.33 0.15 0.18 0.00 SINCE MAR 1 7.36 3.30 4.06 1.39 SINCE JAN 1 16.48 8.05 8.43 6.97 SNOWFALL (IN) TODAY MM T 1992 0.0 MM 0.0 MONTH TO DATE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE MAR 1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 SINCE JUL 1 0.1 0.9 -0.8 0.1 SNOW DEPTH MM.................................................................. WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 18 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION S (170) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 27 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION S (170) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 12.0.......................................................... THE WACO CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW NORMAL RECORD YEAR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 74 93 1989 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 51 27 1975 SUNRISE AND SUNSET APRIL 2 2020.........SUNRISE 715 AM CDT SUNSET 749 PM CDT APRIL 3 2020.........SUNRISE 714 AM CDT SUNSET 750 PM CDT - INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS. R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED. MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING. T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT. $$

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02.Apr.2020


DALLAS FORT WORTH Apr 2 Climate Report: High: 68 Low: 58 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0

532 CDUS44 KFWD 022126 CLIDFW CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 425 PM CDT THU APR 2 2020......................................THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR APRIL 2 2020... VALID AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1898 TO 2020 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL.................................................................. TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 68 300 PM 94 1918 73 -5 72 MINIMUM 58 MM 32 1936 51 7 41 AVERAGE 63 PRECIPITATION (IN) TODAY 0.00 2.14 2017 0.09 -0.09 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 0.00 0.19 -0.19 0.00 SINCE MAR 1 6.75 3.68 3.07 2.01 SINCE JAN 1 15.63 8.47 7.16 4.88 SNOWFALL (IN) TODAY 0.0 0.0 MM 0.0 0.0 0.0 MONTH TO DATE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE MAR 1 0.0 0.2 -0.2 0.0 SINCE JUL 1 0.2 1.6 -1.4 T SNOW DEPTH 0.................................................................. WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 18 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION S (160) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 31 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION SE (150) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 14.4.......................................................... THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW NORMAL RECORD YEAR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 73 95 1989 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 51 30 1987 SUNRISE AND SUNSET APRIL 2 2020.........SUNRISE 714 AM CDT SUNSET 749 PM CDT APRIL 3 2020.........SUNRISE 713 AM CDT SUNSET 750 PM CDT - INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS. R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED. MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING. T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT. $$

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02.Apr.2020


WACO Apr 2 Climate Report: High: 71 Low: 58 Precip: Trace Snow: 0.0

531 CDUS44 KFWD 022126 CLIACT CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 425 PM CDT THU APR 2 2020......................................THE WACO CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR APRIL 2 2020... VALID AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1901 TO 2020 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL.................................................................. TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 71 100 PM 93 1918 74 -3 70 MINIMUM 58 MM 34 1975 51 7 39 AVERAGE 65 PRECIPITATION (IN) TODAY T 1.65 1916 0.08 -0.08 0.00 MONTH TO DATE T 0.15 -0.15 0.00 SINCE MAR 1 7.03 3.30 3.73 1.39 SINCE JAN 1 16.15 8.05 8.10 6.97 SNOWFALL (IN) TODAY 0.0 T 1992 0.0 0.0 0.0 MONTH TO DATE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE MAR 1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 SINCE JUL 1 0.1 0.9 -0.8 0.1 SNOW DEPTH 0.................................................................. WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 18 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION S (170) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 27 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION S (170) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 12.1.......................................................... THE WACO CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW NORMAL RECORD YEAR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 74 93 1989 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 51 27 1975 SUNRISE AND SUNSET APRIL 2 2020.........SUNRISE 715 AM CDT SUNSET 749 PM CDT APRIL 3 2020.........SUNRISE 714 AM CDT SUNSET 750 PM CDT - INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS. R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED. MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING. T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT. $$

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02.Apr.2020


FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 2, 3:43 PM CDT

161 FXUS64 KFWD 022043 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 343 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020 .SHORT TERM... /Issued 246 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020/ /This Afternoon through Saturday Morning/ The main concern in the short term forecast period will be the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms Friday evening/night - early Saturday morning may be strong to severe. The main risk will be large hail. In addition, heavy rainfall could result in the potential for flooding. The other noteworthy change will be the colder conditions. In summary, temperatures Friday (parts of the area) and Saturday (most of the area) will be 15 to 20 degrees lower than normal. Showers with isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon...especially across Central Texas as a conveyor of WAA continues to overspread the area. Most of this activity is expected to be elevated. Zonal flow aloft combined with building instability may support a few strong storms this afternoon, but given the elevated nature of activity...the main risk would be small hail. Temperatures this afternoon will likely slowly climb into the upper 60s to low/mid 70s thanks to widespread cloud cover/increasing moisture. I expect a brief lull in rain/isolated storms this evening before low level flow intensifies and resultant WAA ensues. The best chance for pre-dawn showers on Friday will be across East Texas and along the Red River where the greatest WAA is forecast. Overnight conditions will remain mild with temperatures in the 60s. A pretty strong cold front---currently knifing through the Panhandles and western Oklahoma---will blast south toward North Texas. The front is expected to make it through the Red River Valley by daybreak Friday....I-20 around noon and then Central Texas by sundown. Much colder air will plunge southward such that daytime high temperatures for locations near and north of I-20 will likely occur early in the day with the thermometer falling through the late morning and afternoon hours. Across Central Texas, however, the thermal axis should set up and this will equate to temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees (despite the widespread cloud cover). This type of pattern is more akin to something we'd see in the cool season given the shallow nature of the colder air. The NAM appears to have the best handle on this late season shallow cold airmass (as it typically does) and I've sided mostly with its solution (faster and farther south with FROPA). The speed of the front may be the equalizer as it pertains to severe weather. The fast frontal progression should mean that most updrafts will be quickly undercut by the surging cold air southward. With storms NOT being rooted in the near-surface layer, the tendency for damaging winds and tornadoes will be pretty close to zero. However, there will be a large hail threat as plenty of instability (close to 2500 J/kg) and deep layer shear (40 knots) will exist for organized storm modes. This severe weather threat is expected to increase late Friday afternoon and could linger well into the pre-dawn hours on Saturday. If the front really slows, then the window for surface based convection will increase substantially with the damaging wind and tornado risk existing (though low level wind shear appears very marginal for tornadoes). PWAT values are expected to increase into the 1.3-1.45" range near the front and this may promote some heavy rainfall late Friday into Saturday. Given that this area has seen a decent amount of rain over the past 30-60 days, there will be a risk for flooding of creeks, streams and rivers. Rain and isolated thunderstorm chances may continue into early Saturday. Should enough instability remain, the severe weather threat may persist as well. The big story on Saturday will be the much cooler conditions. Morning lows may dip down into the 30s across western North Texas with 40s elsewhere. CAA will diminish some through the day on Saturday and highs may climb into the 60s...except across the Big Country where temperatures may remain in the 50s. Bain && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Saturday through next Thursday/ The active weather continues this weekend and unfortunately through next week. At this time, the highest rain chances continues to be on Saturday, Monday and again later in the week. We will get a few breaks from the rain, but most of the region will see multiple rounds of showers and storms by the time next weekend arrives. In addition to the rain chances, a warming trend is in the forecast for next week. Afternoon temperatures will easily reach the mid to upper 80s by the middle of next week. A cool and wet Saturday is expected across all North and Central TX. We will wake up with temperatures in the 40s, but it will only warm up into the 50s to low 60s Saturday afternoon. With the cooler airmass in place, the wet weather and the overcast skies will keep the temperatures 10-18 degrees below normal for early April. In terms of the precipitation, areas along and south of I-20 will have the highest rain and storm chances as a disturbance moves in from the southwest. It will mainly be showers, but a few embedded thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon and evening. We can't rule out some flooding issues across parts of Central TX, especially over the areas that receive heavy rain Friday evening/night. We might get a break from the rain Saturday night, but rain chances increase again on Sunday. As we've been advertising over the last few days, more rain is coming next week. Both the GFS and ECMWF show southwest flow aloft with multiple disturbances traveling over the southern Plains. This, combined with the fact that we will stay in the warm sector every day, will result in multiple rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms through at least next Friday. No severe weather is expected at this time, however, a much stronger storm system is set to arrive late next week and will bring better lift for more widespread storm chances. We will continue to monitor the trends over the next few days. With these multi-day rain chances, we are looking at rainfall totals ranging from the 1-2.5" across North Texas and over 3" across parts of Central TX. This means that there will be some flooding issues each day, especially across far south Central TX. Additional rises on rivers and creeks may also occur. It is important to mention that if these totals verify, some locations will receive their normal rainfall totals for April in just the first two weeks of the month. Continue to monitor the forecast over the next couple of days for updates on specific details! Sanchez && .AVIATION... /Issued 246 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020/ /18 UTC TAF Cycle/ Concerns---Ceiling trends...FROPA and SHRA/TSRA potential. MVFR cigs will likely linger through a good portion of the afternoon as low level moisture continues to funnel northward. There will be a brief opportunity for VFR at D/FW and DAL late this afternoon/early evening. At this time, confidence is low to medium in regard to cigs lifting into the VFR category. Unscheduled amendments to address ceiling trends may be needed later this afternoon. Ascent will increase this afternoon across Central TX and given that instability is expected to be of sufficient values, a 3-4 hour window of VCTS---starting at 2100 UTC---at Waco appears warranted. There's a non-zero threat for SHRA/TSRA INVOF D10 TAFs (especially AFW...FTW and D/FW) this afternoon, but confidence is not high enough to include at this time. By 0200 UTC, all sites should be MVFR as the near surface layer cools. MVFR will likely prevail through the remainder of the TAF cycle for all sites. Low level ascent will lead to patchy drizzle/showers across Central TX. As a result, cigs should fall into the IFR category briefly at Waco on Friday morning. Borderline IFR is not out of the realm of possibly at Metroplex TAFs, but confidence is not high enough to mention at this time. FROPA appears likely around midday at Metroplex TAFs. While ascent will be on the increase across North Texas Friday morning, decent capping ahead of the front will likely only result in SHRA. Near FROPA, the cap may weaken enough such that updrafts can realize some instability and potentially grow into TSRA. Right now, confidence is too low to include in the extended reaches of the D/FW 30 hour TAF, but trends in model guidance will be monitored. North winds of up to 15 knots can be expected with gusts as high as 25 knots possible. We will need to keep an eye on postfrontal SHRA/TSRA late Friday into early Saturday, though this is just outside of the current 30 hour D/FW TAF. Bain && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 62 68 45 60 53 / 20 50 30 50 30 Waco 64 77 47 60 55 / 50 80 60 60 40 Paris 60 66 44 62 53 / 20 70 50 50 30 Denton 62 67 44 59 51 / 20 40 20 40 30 McKinney 62 66 44 60 52 / 20 60 30 40 30 Dallas 63 68 46 60 54 / 20 60 30 50 30 Terrell 62 72 45 62 53 / 20 80 50 50 30 Corsicana 63 77 46 61 55 / 40 80 60 60 40 Temple 64 80 48 60 55 / 60 70 70 70 40 Mineral Wells 62 62 44 57 50 / 10 30 20 50 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 17/24

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02.Apr.2020


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