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FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 22, 5:49 AM CDT

483 FXUS64 KFWD 221049 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 549 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Scattered showers are ongoing across portions of North and Central Texas as moisture from Tropical Storm Beta continues to stream in. The main update to the forecast is to include the mention of drizzle through the morning hours. Minor adjustments were also made to this morning's precipitation forecast to account for the ongoing trends. Overall, precipitation amounts will likely remain between 1-2 inches within the heaviest precipitation. Although minor flooding can't be ruled out completely, the probability will remain low given the short duration of the passing rain shower. Hernandez Previous Discussion: /Through Wednesday/ Tropical Storm Beta continues to spin along the Texas Coast, with the center currently near Port Lavaca. T.S. Beta made landfall at around 10pm Monday near the southern end of Matagorda Peninsula. Very little forward motion is expected though today as steering winds diminish. Currently across North and Central Texas, overcast skies prevail as plenty of moisture continues to be advected northward into our region. Precipitable water values have steadily increased over the past 24 hours, evident by the 1.13" increase sampled by the weather balloon released in Fort Worth. With moisture continuing to stream in, scattered light showers will remain possible through much of today, along with occasional bouts of mist/drizzle. The limiting factor for a much greater precipitation potential will be the large amount of dry air that has been encircling T.S. Beta since its inception. This has been clearly evident on satellite that past several days as a large mass of significantly dry air remains in place across West Texas and even as close as the Hill Country. This will likely lead to a similar scenario today compared to yesterday, where light to moderate precipitation remained confined to a small area, with little precipitation elsewhere. The latest guidance is hinting at the greatest precipitation potential to be across the Red River Counties this afternoon and tonight, with decreasing changes the farther southwest you go. The expectation is that an additional 1-2 inches of rain will be possible east of I-35 and north of I-20 between today and tomorrow. There is a potential for transient moderate to heavy rain through this afternoon, but it should be short-lived, keeping the risk of flooding low. High temperatures both today and tomorrow will remain in the upper 60s to 70s as cloud cover and northeasterly winds continue. Precipitation chances will be ending from west to east tomorrow afternoon as Beta begins to gain forward speed off to the northeast. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 223 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020/ /Wednesday Night Onward/ Rather uneventful weather is expected through the long term portion of the forecast. An elongated positively tilted trough will be in place over the the Central US through the middle and end of the week which will continue to usher the remnants of Beta off to the east. In its wake, weak height rises will occur, with clearing skies and a return to a southerly flow regime. Sunnier skies and warm advection will allow temperatures to bounce back closer to normal with highs in the mid and upper 80s during the second half of the week. This trend should continue into the upcoming weekend with ridging occurring overhead. By Sunday, an amplification of the large-scale pattern should take place with a building ridge over the West Coast and a deepening trough to the east. Multiple disturbances will dig southeast through the parent trough, sending occasional fronts into the Central and Southern Plains. One such front may arrive on Sunday, but latest guidance suggests there would be very little contrast across this boundary should it even be able to arrive at all. Previous forecasts had called for perhaps a low chance for showers and storms with its passage, but this has appeared less likely over the past couple of model runs. As a result, we'll remove the low rain chances on Sunday for the time being. A couple more days of south/southwest flow should allow temperatures to climb above normal early next week, and it looks like much of the area may be back in the 90s for Monday and Tuesday. There may be a better potential for a stronger cold front to arrive sometime late Tuesday or Wednesday which would deliver a more substantial shot of cool and dry air, but this remains uncertain given typical Day 7 inconsistencies in guidance. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /NEW/ Update: /12Z TAFs/ Concerns...IFR and reduced visibility due to drizzle and rain. Tropical Storm Beta continues to spin along the Gulf Coast this early Tuesday morning. Moisture is streaming northward into North and Central Texas, leading to low ceilings and precipitation. Light to moderate drizzle is occurring throughout the region, leading to reduced visibility. Some sites have reported between 2-3SM within the heaviest drizzle. Most ceilings have also dropped to IFR given the abundant moisture in place. Guidance continues to show a brief window of low MVFR throughout North Texas this afternoon, but IFR looks to return tonight and remain through the end of this forecast cycle. Additionally, scattered rain showers are ongoing across the region. This is expected to continue throughout the rest of the morning and early afternoon. A decrease in precipitation coverage is expected as the afternoon progresses due to increasing dry air withing the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Winds throughout this forecast cycle will remain out of the northeast, generally between 5-10 knots. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 72 65 75 62 80 / 60 20 10 0 0 Waco 73 66 77 63 81 / 50 20 10 0 0 Paris 67 61 70 58 76 / 70 50 30 5 0 Denton 72 63 74 60 79 / 60 20 5 0 0 McKinney 71 63 74 60 79 / 60 30 10 0 0 Dallas 72 65 75 62 80 / 60 30 10 0 0 Terrell 72 63 75 60 79 / 60 30 20 5 0 Corsicana 72 65 75 62 78 / 50 30 20 5 0 Temple 73 66 77 62 80 / 50 30 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 73 63 75 58 81 / 60 10 5 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 8

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22.Sep.2020


FWD issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Sep 22, 2:23 AM CDT

602 FLUS44 KFWD 220723 HWOFWD Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 223 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-230730- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 223 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Locally heavy rainfall may result in minor flooding across parts of Northeast Texas today. Otherwise, severe weather is not expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$

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22.Sep.2020


FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 22, 2:23 AM CDT

921 FXUS64 KFWD 220723 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 223 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 .SHORT TERM... /Issued 124 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020/ /Through Wednesday/ Tropical Storm Beta continues to spin along the Texas Coast, with the center currently near Port Lavaca. T.S. Beta made landfall at around 10pm Monday near the southern end of Matagorda Peninsula. Very little forward motion is expected though today as steering winds diminish. Currently across North and Central Texas, overcast skies prevail as plenty of moisture continues to be advected northward into our region. Precipitable water values have steadily increased over the past 24 hours, evident by the 1.13" increase sampled by the weather balloon released in Fort Worth. With moisture continuing to stream in, scattered light showers will remain possible through much of today, along with occasional bouts of mist/drizzle. The limiting factor for a much greater precipitation potential will be the large amount of dry air that has been encircling T.S. Beta since its inception. This has been clearly evident on satellite that past several days as a large mass of significantly dry air remains in place across West Texas and even as close as the Hill Country. This will likely lead to a similar scenario today compared to yesterday, where light to moderate precipitation remained confined to a small area, with little precipitation elsewhere. The latest guidance is hinting at the greatest precipitation potential to be across the Red River Counties this afternoon and tonight, with decreasing changes the farther southwest you go. The expectation is that an additional 1-2 inches of rain will be possible east of I-35 and north of I-20 between today and tomorrow. There is a potential for transient moderate to heavy rain through this afternoon, but it should be short-lived, keeping the risk of flooding low. High temperatures both today and tomorrow will remain in the upper 60s to 70s as cloud cover and northeasterly winds continue. Precipitation chances will be ending from west to east tomorrow afternoon as Beta begins to gain forward speed off to the northeast. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Wednesday Night Onward/ Rather uneventful weather is expected through the long term portion of the forecast. An elongated positively tilted trough will be in place over the the Central US through the middle and end of the week which will continue to usher the remnants of Beta off to the east. In its wake, weak height rises will occur, with clearing skies and a return to a southerly flow regime. Sunnier skies and warm advection will allow temperatures to bounce back closer to normal with highs in the mid and upper 80s during the second half of the week. This trend should continue into the upcoming weekend with ridging occurring overhead. By Sunday, an amplification of the large-scale pattern should take place with a building ridge over the West Coast and a deepening trough to the east. Multiple disturbances will dig southeast through the parent trough, sending occasional fronts into the Central and Southern Plains. One such front may arrive on Sunday, but latest guidance suggests there would be very little contrast across this boundary should it even be able to arrive at all. Previous forecasts had called for perhaps a low chance for showers and storms with its passage, but this has appeared less likely over the past couple of model runs. As a result, we'll remove the low rain chances on Sunday for the time being. A couple more days of south/southwest flow should allow temperatures to climb above normal early next week, and it looks like much of the area may be back in the 90s for Monday and Tuesday. There may be a better potential for a stronger cold front to arrive sometime late Tuesday or Wednesday which would deliver a more substantial shot of cool and dry air, but this remains uncertain given typical Day 7 inconsistencies in guidance. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /Issued 124 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020/ /06Z TAFs/ Concerns...IFR with occasional rain showers reducing visibility. Tropical Storm Beta has made landfall near Port Lavaca and is expected to remain in that same general vicinity through the rest of the day and tonight. With little change in the position of the tropical system, conditions for much of the region will remain fairly stagnant. IFR has spread through much of the region as low-level moisture streams in from the northeast. Rain showers also continue to move from southeast to northwest, with occasional showers possible at area airports through tonight. Some guidance is suggesting that enough low-level mixing will occur during peak heating today to increase cigs into the low MVFR category. Unfortunately, as the sun goes down tonight, IFR looks to make a comeback across the region. Precipitation will be ending from west to east tomorrow afternoon, but given this is out of this forecast cycle, this will be added in subsequent TAF issuances. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 72 65 75 62 80 / 60 20 10 0 0 Waco 73 65 77 63 81 / 40 20 10 0 0 Paris 67 60 70 58 76 / 70 50 20 5 0 Denton 72 64 74 60 79 / 60 20 5 0 0 McKinney 71 64 74 60 79 / 60 30 10 0 0 Dallas 72 65 75 62 80 / 60 30 10 0 0 Terrell 72 63 75 60 79 / 50 30 20 5 0 Corsicana 72 65 75 62 78 / 50 40 20 5 0 Temple 73 64 77 62 80 / 50 20 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 73 62 75 58 81 / 50 10 5 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

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22.Sep.2020


DALLAS FORT WORTH Sep 21 Climate Report: High: 76 Low: 65 Precip: 0.07 Snow: M

149 CDUS44 KFWD 220645 CLIDFW CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 141 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2020......................................THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR SEPTEMBER 21 2020... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1898 TO 2020 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL.................................................................. TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 76 122 PM 99 2005 86 -10 94 1956 MINIMUM 65 1159 PM 45 1983 65 0 77 AVERAGE 71 76 -5 86 PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 0.07 6.38 1900 0.07 0.00 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 3.80 1.85 1.95 T SINCE SEP 1 3.80 1.85 1.95 T SINCE JAN 1 37.81 25.96 11.85 27.13 DEGREE DAYS HEATING YESTERDAY 0 0 0 0 MONTH TO DATE 3 0 3 0 SINCE SEP 1 3 0 3 0 SINCE JUL 1 3 0 3 0 COOLING YESTERDAY 6 11 -5 21 MONTH TO DATE 251 308 -57 434 SINCE SEP 1 251 308 -57 434 SINCE JAN 1 2562 2490 72 2636.................................................................. WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 18 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION NE (60) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 25 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION NE (60) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 9.6 SKY COVER POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.8 WEATHER CONDITIONS THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY. RAIN LIGHT RAIN FOG RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT) HIGHEST 100 400 PM LOWEST 68 1200 AM AVERAGE 84.......................................................... THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY NORMAL RECORD YEAR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 86 101 2005 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 65 45 1983 SUNRISE AND SUNSET SEPTEMBER 22 2020.....SUNRISE 717 AM CDT SUNSET 724 PM CDT SEPTEMBER 23 2020.....SUNRISE 717 AM CDT SUNSET 723 PM CDT - INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS. R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED. MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING. T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT. $$

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22.Sep.2020


WACO Sep 21 Climate Report: High: 76 Low: 67 Precip: 0.61 Snow: M

148 CDUS44 KFWD 220645 CLIACT CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 141 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2020......................................THE WACO CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR SEPTEMBER 21 2020... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1901 TO 2020 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL.................................................................. TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 76 1043 AM 101 1933 88 -12 96 MINIMUM 67 1159 PM 45 1938 64 3 77 AVERAGE 72 76 -4 87 PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 0.61 2.25 1995 0.09 0.52 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 7.28 2.11 5.17 0.17 SINCE SEP 1 7.28 2.11 5.17 0.17 SINCE JAN 1 37.93 24.27 13.66 27.66 DEGREE DAYS HEATING YESTERDAY 0 0 0 0 MONTH TO DATE 2 0 2 0 SINCE SEP 1 2 0 2 0 SINCE JUL 1 2 0 2 0 COOLING YESTERDAY 7 12 -5 22 MONTH TO DATE 264 308 -44 433 SINCE SEP 1 264 308 -44 433 SINCE JAN 1 2648 2503 145 2674.................................................................. WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 17 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION NE (40) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 23 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION NE (50) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 10.8 SKY COVER POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM AVERAGE SKY COVER 1.0 WEATHER CONDITIONS THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY. HEAVY RAIN RAIN LIGHT RAIN FOG HAZE RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT) HIGHEST 90 1200 PM LOWEST 60 1000 AM AVERAGE 75.......................................................... THE WACO CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY NORMAL RECORD YEAR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 88 100 2005 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 64 40 1983 SUNRISE AND SUNSET SEPTEMBER 22 2020.....SUNRISE 717 AM CDT SUNSET 725 PM CDT SEPTEMBER 23 2020.....SUNRISE 718 AM CDT SUNSET 723 PM CDT - INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS. R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED. MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING. T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT. $$

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22.Sep.2020


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