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Forecast Discussion for FWD NWS Office
FXUS64 KFWD 221842

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
142 PM CDT Sun May 22 2022

...New Short Term, Aviation...

/Through Monday Evening/

After a taste of summer the past several days, a taste of fall is
very much welcomed today. A blanket of stratus clouds associated
with wrap around moisture and cold air advection has kept
temperatures this morning mostly in the 60s. Highs will range from
the upper 60s across Northeast Texas, where skies will remain
overcast, to mid 70s across the Big Country, where clouds have
cleared. Although rain/storm free weather is expected tonight,
increasing low level WAA and a slowly retreating cold front will
yield low clouds blanketing the region late tonight. Patchy fog
and/or mist is also possible early Monday morning as well, with
some high res guidance hinting at visibilities falling to around
4-6 miles at times through late Monday morning.

Another disturbance associated with a longwave trough located over
the western US will arrive on Monday as low level WAA increases
across North and Central Texas. The potential for severe weather
will be limited during the morning hours given the cooler airmass
in place. If any showers or thunderstorms are able to develop
tomorrow morning across the Big Country, most activity will be
elevated. However, as southerly flow returns and instability
increases, a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms with a
risk for hail and damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out during
the afternoon hours. This threat would be best across portions of
Central Texas, but may extend as far north as the I-20 corridor.
Otherwise, highs will warm into the mid to upper 70s across most
of the region tomorrow afternoon.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 401 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022/
/Monday Night Onward/

A few systems will impact the region early next week that could
bring locally heavy rainfall leading to minor flooding and the
threat of at least isolated severe storms. Our confidence of the
magnitude and areal extent of the threats remains low at this time
since these will be largely driven by mesoscale factors that won`t
come into focus until the short term forecast period.

This unsettled period will be a result of a deepening and semi
stagnant upper trough expected to settle over the lee of the
Rockies for a couple days. The first shortwave trough will eject
out of the parent trough Monday. It will move over the area Monday
night and deepen as it digs into southeast Texas. As mentioned in
the short term discussion, this will draw warm and moist air in
the low levels back north and help develop widespread showers and
thunderstorms over West Texas and the Big Country in the afternoon
before moving across the region overnight. There will be a threat
of severe weather, mostly across Central Texas where the
instability is greater, but the threat is very marginal. Given
the amount of rain that fell yesterday across parts of Central
Texas, we will have to keep a close eye on areas that received
significant rainfall as those locations will have a higher risk of
flooding. Most of the precip will come to an end once the
shortwave moves east.

Quickly on the heels of the leading shortwave will be a second and
much stronger one. This shortwave will have stronger frontogenetic
forcing and deepen a surface low to our west Tuesday. There`s a
low chance that a thunderstorm complex develops to our south in
the early morning hours that will disrupt the low level flow, but
in general low level warm and moist advection will be enhanced
Tuesday ahead of the deepening low to our west. This will result
in low level isentropic ascent underneath mid/upper level height
falls...resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms along
and ahead of the surface low`s attendant cold front Tuesday over
Western North Texas. This complex should then spread east across
the region Tuesday afternoon and evening along a mesoscale-driven
cold pool. The cold front will lag well behind the cold pool, then
eventually move into the area Wednesday along and ahead of the mid
level baroclinic zone. This should result in another resurgence of
showers and thunderstorms across the region Wednesday. When the
upper trough finally swings through, precip chances should come
to an end Wednesday night with the passage of a cold front. There
will once again be a severe and flooding threat Tuesday and
Wednesday, but our confidence of the extent of the threats remains
very low at this timeframe.

Temperatures will remain on the cool side of normal through
Thursday. Early in the week this will be largely due to cloud
cover and precip while Wednesday and Thursday will be due to the
cooler air moving in behind the front. Upper level height rises
and ridging will build to our west in the middle parts of the
week, allowing the surface high to shift east quickly. This will
bring a return to warm and moist advection Thursday night,
resulting in a warming trend to close out the week. 90 degree
temperatures are expected to return to the Metroplex Friday and
remain through next weekend.



/18Z TAFs/

Despite a brief period of VFR this afternoon, conditions are
expected to deteriorate this evening and tonight as moisture
returns. MVFR ceilings associated with wrap around moisture from
a surface low located to the east will persist this afternoon, but
intermittent periods of VFR are possible through this evening.

By 07-08Z IFR ceilings will prevail with visibilities dropping to
around 4-5SM. There is a potential ceilings may briefly fall to
LIFR after 10-11Z, but confidence was not high enough to include
with the 18Z TAF issuance. Conditions are not expected to improve
until late Monday morning or early afternoon. However, we`ll also
have to keep an eye on the potential for convection tomorrow
afternoon with the arrival of a disturbance. Confidence on timing
of any convection is low at this time and will continue to be
assessed in subsequent issuances.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  62  76  67  76 /   5   5  50  70  80
Waco                76  63  79  67  77 /  10  10  60  70  80
Paris               66  58  74  65  74 /   5  10  20  60  90
Denton              72  58  74  66  75 /   5  10  50  70  80
McKinney            69  59  75  65  75 /   5   5  40  70  90
Dallas              71  62  76  67  76 /   5   5  40  70  80
Terrell             70  61  77  66  76 /   5   5  30  60  90
Corsicana           72  63  79  67  76 /  10   5  40  60  90
Temple              76  64  79  67  78 /  10  10  60  70  80
Mineral Wells       74  60  75  65  76 /   5  10  60  70  70




NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion

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