000 FXUS64 KFWD 270857 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 257 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 152 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022/ /Overnight through Monday/ A quieter night is expected tonight as cloud cover and rain associated with last night`s system continues to pull away from the region. Some lingering low cloud cover will persist primarily north of I-20 tonight, but the precipitation has ended. Sunday will feature mostly sunny skies across a good chunk of the region, but another fast moving upstream shortwave will swing through the Plains around midday. As it does, lingering low level moisture and cloud cover (currently to our north) will likely spread back to the south and west through the afternoon. This will result in mostly cloudy skies for areas generally along and north of I-20. Drier air will eventually spread into North Texas by evening and allow the cloud cover to scatter out. Highs should top out in the upper 50s and lower 60s today. Southerly flow will return late Sunday night into Monday allowing moisture to slowly spread back to the north, but cloud cover will likely hold off until Monday night. High temperatures on Monday will be a few degrees warmer with readings in the mid to upper 60s. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Monday Night Onward/ An amplifying upper trough will induce cyclogenesis on the lee side of the Rockies Tuesday. In response, low level winds will turn southwesterly, drawing moisture into North & Central Texas and providing the warmest temperatures of the week due to downsloping winds. Highs will reach the mid and upper 70s areawide before a strong cool down arrives with the arrival of a potent cold front. Ahead of the front, a potential for strong to severe storms exists for East Texas Tuesday. A warm sector setting up with low/mid 60s dewpoints will align with plentiful shear and decent instability over the area. However, the primary uncertainties right now are 1) the degree of instability available and 2) the timing of the system. The potential for earlier precipitation Tuesday and cloud cover expected across the area will be the main inhibitors for surface heating and may limit what convection is able to develop. While the better alignment of parameters favorable for severe weather looks to set up to the east, guidance is in fairly good agreement that East Texas will see the potential for strong to severe storms later in the day. Regarding the timing, if the system is less progressive than currently forecast, the threat for severe weather would increase, which will be monitored closely. Most areas will stay rain-free with the arrival of the cold front, with much drier and colder air filling in behind. Temperatures Wednesday will only reach the upper 40s to mid 50s for afternoon highs as the cold front should be through the entire area by daybreak Wednesday. A shortwave late Thursday and into Friday will bring additional low rain chances to the area with temperatures reaching the 60s again Friday and into the weekend. Gordon && .AVIATION... /Issued 152 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022/ /6Z TAFs/ Wrap around cloud cover is primarily north of D10 at this hour with VFR prevailing and a light west wind. These winds will gradually become more northwesterly by mid morning Sunday. In addition, another disturbance will swing through the Plains Sunday afternoon and may allow some of these MVFR cigs to spread back to the south and west into the D10 airspace. We`ll show a few hours of MVFR cigs from 18-23Z at the major airports with VFR returning Sunday night. Outside of these cigs, no significant aviation concerns are expected. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 61 40 65 56 76 / 0 0 0 0 5 Waco 64 39 68 55 77 / 0 0 0 5 10 Paris 59 39 60 49 72 / 0 0 0 5 30 Denton 60 35 65 52 75 / 0 0 0 0 5 McKinney 59 37 62 52 75 / 0 0 0 0 10 Dallas 60 41 65 56 77 / 0 0 0 0 10 Terrell 61 39 64 53 75 / 0 0 0 5 20 Corsicana 63 43 67 55 76 / 0 0 0 5 20 Temple 65 40 68 54 77 / 0 0 0 5 10 Mineral Wells 61 37 70 52 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$