000 FXUS64 KFWD 060003 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 603 PM CST Fri Mar 5 2021 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Saturday Evening/ Water vapor imagery reveals a shortwave currently dropping through the Arklatex, while RADAR indicates all convection associated with the feature remaining off to our east and south. There is just enough moisture with the system to squeeze out a few sprinkles between now and midnight, but measurable precipitation is not expected. Gusty northwest winds behind the initial cold front should shift to a more northeasterly direction as a second front back-doors its way through the region. Wind gusts should also drop off over the next few hours as boundary layer winds decouple. Skies are expected to remain broken to overcast for much of the night due to shallow moisture above the frontal layer. Cold air advection should still be strong enough to allow temperatures to fall into the upper 30s to mid 40s by daybreak Saturday. A developing ridge on the heels of the exiting shortwave should make for a nice Saturday with decreasing clouds and highs in the 60s. 30 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 141 PM CST Fri Mar 5 2021/ /Sunday onward/ Warmer temperatures and dry weather are expected for much of next week. These warmer conditions will come as upper-level ridging strengthens across the region and southerly flow increases. During the first couple days of the week (Monday and Tuesday), some elevated fire weather concerns will exist near and west of U.S. Highway 281 as afternoon minimum relative humidity values drop to less than 30 percent. While we are not expecting Red Flag conditions, the severe freeze from a few weeks ago has left a lot of stressed and/or dormant vegetation across the region. This means that otherwise marginal fire weather conditions may receive a "boost" from very receptive fuels across the region, leading to a higher fire weather threat. This has been seen lately with an increased number of initial attack fires. If current trends hold, a Grass Fire Danger Statement may be needed for at least Monday. Towards the middle of next week, humidity will increase markedly, with dewpoints likely to be into the upper 50s to even lower 60s by Wednesday afternoon. This increased humidity should shut down any fire weather threat, as well as lead to warmer overnight lows. Tuesday Night through Thursday Night appear likely to have lows in the 60s for some locations. By the end of next week, the forecast gets a bit more uncertain. The models are in good agreement with respect to the general upper-level pattern showing a strong upper-level trough digging into the Southwest. The models disagree significantly on the surface details however with the GFS showing more widespread precipitation by Friday, and the ECMWF showing less coverage. For now, will show Chance PoPs during this timeframe, with a mention for a slight chance of thunder. It is too early to speculate about any severe weather potential, but given the time of the year, it never hurts to review one`s severe weather safety plans. Regardless, this looks like the best chance for precipitation through the next 7-10 days. Godwin && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ Post-frontal stratus will likely keep MVFR cigs in place this evening through much of the overnight period. A secondary front has already shifted the DFW area winds from northwest to northeast, and this should occur at KACT in a few hours. Ceilings should scatter Saturday morning as the shortwave moves out and ridging develops in its wake. Winds should eventually become light easterly around 07/00Z. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 43 64 40 67 45 / 10 0 0 0 0 Waco 46 64 39 68 44 / 10 0 0 0 0 Paris 38 60 37 64 40 / 5 0 0 0 0 Denton 39 64 36 67 42 / 10 0 0 0 0 McKinney 40 63 37 67 42 / 10 0 0 0 0 Dallas 44 65 43 68 47 / 10 0 0 0 0 Terrell 41 62 38 67 42 / 10 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 44 63 40 67 44 / 5 0 0 0 0 Temple 45 64 38 68 43 / 5 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 41 64 38 68 42 / 5 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$