519
FXUS64 KFWD 192343
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
543 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2020


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1055 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020/
/This afternoon through Monday Afternoon/

After a cold start to the morning with many stations near or below
freezing, temperatures will steadily warm through the afternoon
under full sun.  However, surface heating will be offset by weak
cold air advection keeping afternoon highs a few degrees below
normal (low to mid 50s). The good news is that wind speeds will
remain generally below 10 mph so it will be a fairly pleasant
afternoon for late January.

A mostly clear sky, light wind and dry airmass in place will allow
temperatures to cool rapidly after sunset. Most locations should
fall to or slightly below freezing by sunrise Monday, but will
steadily warm through the day with waning cold air advection and
plenty of sun. Overall, temperatures should be a degree or two
warmer on Monday than today (mid 50s). The exception will be the
northeast zones where weak cold air advection will linger the
longest, keeping high temperatures around 50 degrees.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 203 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2020/
/Monday Night through Next Weekend/

/Monday Night - Tuesday/
Dry and seasonable weather will remain ongoing at the start of
the period as ridging aloft will be in place. A shortwave rounding
the eastern flank of the ridge will push a back-door front in
from the northeast Monday night. This reinforcement of cool air
will likely keep Tuesday high temperatures in the 40s for areas
east and north of the DFW Metroplex, with lower and mid 50s
expected elsewhere.

Another factor which may also aid in the chilly conditions on
Tuesday will be clouds increasing rapidly as a shortwave trough
quickly approaches from the west. Good forcing for ascent will
arrive late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening, but the
limiting factor for precipitation will be the lack of moisture.
However, it appears that the atmosphere will moisten up enough for
scattered showers to eventually develop during the evening hours.
Precip will begin across the western half of the region Tuesday
evening, then spread east across the I-35 corridor around
midnight. Rainfall totals should remain limited to half an inch or
less.


/Tuesday night - Wednesday Night/
During the overnight and into Wednesday morning hours, as
precipitation spreads into the cooler airmass behind the back-door
front, there is the potential for a brief period of a snow-rain
mix. This would be for areas east of I-35 and north of I-20, or
roughly northeast of a line from Sherman to Canton. Temperatures
during that time would be at or above freezing and accumulations
are unlikely.

As the initial batch of precipitation exits the region Wednesday
afternoon, more rain will develop immediately in its wake as a
second and sharper trough deepens over the Southern Plains.
Showers will increase roughly along the I-35 corridor Wednesday
afternoon and evening before again spreading through the eastern
half of the forecast area Wednesday night. Mid level lapse rates
associated with the second batch of rain will support elevated
convection, and forecast grids will continue to mention isolated
thunder. Slightly higher rainfall totals will be possible where
any embedded thunderstorms occur, which could produce nuisance
flooding and minor rises on area rivers.


/Thursday through Next Weekend/
The shortwave will kick off to the east on Thursday as an upper
low deepens over the Central Plains. This low is progged to drop
southeastward from Oklahoma/Kansas into Arkansas/Missouri Thursday
night. One last batch of precipitation will be possible across
the northeastern zones due to the proximity of the low, but with
the atmosphere being moisture-starved, rain chances will remain
fairly low. Will likely keep some chance to slight chance POPs
east of I-35 through Thursday night, with precipitation coming to
an end by Friday.

The upper low will turn eastward and continue across the eastern
part of the CONUS from Friday onward, placing North and Central
Texas beneath a mid and upper ridge. Another couple of days of
dry and seasonable weather will be the result, making for a nice
weekend across the region.



30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Concerns: None...VFR with increasing cirrostratus between
FL180-FL250 associated with a passing mid level impulse in NW flow
aloft.

The broad surface ridge currently draped across the area will
slowly migrate east through Monday afternoon. N/NE winds less
than 10 knots this evening will likely become variable
overnight...before veering light SE around 5 knots after 18z
Monday. No precipitation or convection is expected.

05/

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    33  54  33  52  38 /   0   0   0   5  70
Waco                32  55  31  54  38 /   0   0   0   5  70
Paris               29  50  30  46  35 /   0   0   0   0  40
Denton              31  53  32  51  39 /   0   0   0   5  70
McKinney            31  52  31  50  39 /   0   0   0   0  60
Dallas              33  54  33  52  39 /   0   0   0   0  60
Terrell             31  53  31  51  38 /   0   0   0   0  50
Corsicana           33  54  33  53  39 /   0   0   0   0  60
Temple              33  55  36  54  41 /   0   0   0   5  70
Mineral Wells       30  55  33  52  39 /   5   0   0  10  80

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

05/12

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion