000 FXUS64 KFWD 190405 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1105 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Overnight through Sunday/ Mostly clear skies and warm conditions will continue through the weekend with little chance for rainfall. A stout mid level ridge is centered over Arizona at this time but its influence is still being felt across Texas with above normal temperatures. Meanwhile, a weak tropical system is spreading into coastal Louisiana at this hour with a weaker mid level disturbance meandering across southeast Texas. The northeast flow around these two features is fairly dry as indicated by PWs less than 1" on the latest GOES PW imagery. At the surface, dewpoints are in the mid 60s across North Texas with lower 70s staying to the east. Low level winds have been more east-southeast earlier today, but these will become more southerly on Saturday as temperatures rise back into the mid 90s. We`ll see temperatures climb a few degrees on Sunday as flow above the surface becomes more southwesterly and dewpoints will also creep back up into the lower 70s east of I-35. Rain chances will be near zero through the weekend. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 300 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021/ /Saturday Night Onward/ After what has been a hot week across North and Central Texas, a pattern shift will lead to a few changes in the weather as we begin a new work week. Before those changes arrive, we`ll have to contend with yet another hot day on Sunday with temperatures in the upper 90s to the lower triple digits. Areas along and west of US-281 will have the highest probability of exceeding 100 degrees given slightly drier air and a more veered low-level wind. As we move into Monday, a strong shortwave will be moving across the Central Plains, diminishing the influence of the Four Corners high pressure system. This will send a cold front southward through the region. Sufficient moisture will be in place for scattered showers and storms to develop along the leading edge of the front. Given the hot and humid conditions, increasing afternoon instability could lead to a few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms. Overall, effective shear values will remain low across North and Central Texas, keeping the threat of widespread strong to severe storms low. With dewpoint depression values between 10-15 degrees, the main threat will be strong straight line winds, some of which could be damaging if the storm is strong enough. The cold front will continue its southward progression through the afternoon, clearing our Central Texas counties by sunset. Behind the front, below normal temperatures will persist through Wednesday as northeasterly to easterly winds keep the hot temperatures at bay. There may an isolated shower or storm across Central Texas Tuesday, but overall probabilities will remain low. The reprieve from the hot temperatures will be short-lived as the upper ridge begins to build back into the Southern Plains. Southerly winds and higher moisture content will make their way back, leading to temperatures in the mid to upper 90s by next weekend. With the high nosing into our region, increasing subsidence should push all precipitation chances away from North and Central Texas. Hernandez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /6Z TAFs/ VFR is expected through the period with southerly flow around 10 kt. No significant aviation concerns expected through Sunday. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 96 76 98 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 68 94 73 96 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 68 92 71 94 76 / 0 0 0 0 5 Denton 68 94 73 97 76 / 0 0 0 0 5 McKinney 69 93 73 96 77 / 0 0 0 0 5 Dallas 73 96 77 98 79 / 0 0 0 0 5 Terrell 68 93 72 94 76 / 0 0 0 0 5 Corsicana 71 94 74 95 77 / 0 0 0 0 5 Temple 68 95 72 95 77 / 0 0 0 0 5 Mineral Wells 68 95 72 97 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$