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Forecast Discussion for FWD NWS Office
FXUS64 KFWD 092326

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
626 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

/Through Friday/

Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon shows a ridge of high
pressure dominating much of the southwest and south-central CONUS.
This ridge will expand further during the next 24 hours (and
indeed the next several days), ramping up the heat. A Heat
Advisory is in effect through Saturday evening to advertise the
likelihood of heat index values of above 105 F.

Besides the heat, the weather during the next 36 hours will be
very quiet. There was some slight concern that a decaying MCS over
eastern Oklahoma would send an outflow boundary into our far
northeastern counties, but this turned out to not be the case.
Winds remain out of the south well into Oklahoma. With the lack of
any surface forcing mechanisms and strong subsidence from the
building ridge aloft, precipitation chances look to be near nil
for at least the next couple of days.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 339 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020/
/Saturday Onward/

In general, hot and rain free conditions are expected through the
extended forecast...with a few caveats on Sunday. The overall
pattern should be dominated by an anomalously strong upper high
building across the SW and SC CONUS this weekend and early next
week. The NAEFS and EPS ensemble mean guidance is indicating H5
heights to exceed the climatological max for this time of the year
across West Texas and the Desert SW over the weekend. This should
keep our airmass largely subsident and dry, allowing temperatures
to climb into the triple digits.

The onset of widespread triple digit temperatures is expected
Saturday as the 850 flow shifts a bit more westerly and
transports warmer temperatures aloft over our area. Once these
warmer temperatures aloft mix throughout the boundary layer, it
will allow surface temperatures to climb readily through the
afternoon. The best mixing should generally occur west of I-35 and
south of I-20 where afternoon dew points may drop into the mid
50s. Elsewhere, dew points are expected to remain in the low to
mid 70s making the heat rather oppressive through the afternoon
with heat index values in the 105-110F range, with some spots
north of I-20 between 110-113F. While this meets the temperature
threshold for an Excessive Heat Watch/Warning, confidence of this
occurring two days in a row is low, therefore, we have decided to
continue the Heat Advisory, and not upgrade it at this time.

A weak cold front will approach the area from the north overnight
Saturday into Sunday morning. This front has the potential to
wreak havoc on Sunday`s temperature and dew point forecast,
particularly across North Texas. First, a MCS is likely to develop
over Western/Central Oklahoma in the evening to overnight hours.
West to northwest flow aloft should bring the thunderstorms
southeast over the course of the night. Although the current
forecast only includes silent 10 PoPs along the Red River, there
is a chance of an isolated shower/storm along the Red River early
Sunday morning. Even if no precip occurs in our area, an increase
of cloud cover is expected early Sunday. This would decrease the
insolation and delay/decrease the diurnal temperature climb.
Another nuance to Sunday`s pattern is how far south the front will
progress. The latest guidance suggests this front to sag as far
south as the northern fringes of the Metroplex/I-30 corridor
before it washes out Sunday afternoon. This boundary would likely
drop temperatures a few degrees, but also raise dew points,
essentially keeping heat index values in the 105-110 range through
the afternoon Sunday.

The early parts of next week appear to be quieter as the mid level
high translates east over the Southern Plains and settles over the
Southeastern CONUS by mid next week. This will leave the area
under a typical summertime pattern with southerly flow
prevailing in the low levels and mid/upper level easterly to
southeasterly flow. Expect afternoon highs near to slightly above
seasonal norms with heat index values in the 100-105 range.



/00Z TAFs/

Gusty south winds of 10-15 KT and VFR with only a few high clouds
prevail this afternoon. A few diurnally driven Cu around FL050
are evident on visible satellite imagery across Central Texas, but
these should dissipate after sunset. Another surge of cloud cover
looks likely across Central Texas on Thursday morning. Over the
past few days, any MVFR CIGs have been very intermittent, so opted
to go with TEMPO MVFR at KACT. It is not impossible that some
very brief MVFR CIGs make their way into the D10 TRACON, but this
seems unlikely, thus no mention in the Metroplex TAFs. Besides a
few high clouds, only a few diurnal Cu around FL070 are expected
on Thursday.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  98  80 101  80 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                77  98  77 101  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               75  96  77  98  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
Denton              78  97  78 102  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
McKinney            77  97  79 100  78 /   0   0   0   0   5
Dallas              79  99  80 102  81 /   0   0   0   0   5
Terrell             77  95  77  99  78 /   0   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           76  94  78  99  78 /   0   0   0   0   5
Temple              75  99  76 102  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       76  99  77 103  77 /   0   0   0   0   5


Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ091>095-100>107-

Heat Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ129-




NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion

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