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Forecast Discussion for FWD NWS Office
FXUS64 KFWD 190405

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1105 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

/Overnight through Sunday/

Mostly clear skies and warm conditions will continue through the
weekend with little chance for rainfall. A stout mid level ridge
is centered over Arizona at this time but its influence is still
being felt across Texas with above normal temperatures. Meanwhile,
a weak tropical system is spreading into coastal Louisiana at this
hour with a weaker mid level disturbance meandering across
southeast Texas. The northeast flow around these two features is
fairly dry as indicated by PWs less than 1" on the latest GOES PW
imagery. At the surface, dewpoints are in the mid 60s across North
Texas with lower 70s staying to the east. Low level winds have
been more east-southeast earlier today, but these will become more
southerly on Saturday as temperatures rise back into the mid 90s.
We`ll see temperatures climb a few degrees on Sunday as flow
above the surface becomes more southwesterly and dewpoints will
also creep back up into the lower 70s east of I-35. Rain chances
will be near zero through the weekend.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 300 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021/
/Saturday Night Onward/

After what has been a hot week across North and Central Texas, a
pattern shift will lead to a few changes in the weather as we
begin a new work week. Before those changes arrive, we`ll have to
contend with yet another hot day on Sunday with temperatures in
the upper 90s to the lower triple digits. Areas along and west of
US-281 will have the highest probability of exceeding 100 degrees
given slightly drier air and a more veered low-level wind.

As we move into Monday, a strong shortwave will be moving across
the Central Plains, diminishing the influence of the Four Corners
high pressure system. This will send a cold front southward
through the region. Sufficient moisture will be in place for
scattered showers and storms to develop along the leading edge of
the front. Given the hot and humid conditions, increasing
afternoon instability could lead to a few strong to isolated
severe thunderstorms. Overall, effective shear values will remain
low across North and Central Texas, keeping the threat of
widespread strong to severe storms low. With dewpoint depression
values between 10-15 degrees, the main threat will be strong
straight line winds, some of which could be damaging if the storm
is strong enough. The cold front will continue its southward
progression through the afternoon, clearing our Central Texas
counties by sunset.

Behind the front, below normal temperatures will persist through
Wednesday as northeasterly to easterly winds keep the hot
temperatures at bay. There may an isolated shower or storm across
Central Texas Tuesday, but overall probabilities will remain low.

The reprieve from the hot temperatures will be short-lived as the
upper ridge begins to build back into the Southern Plains.
Southerly winds and higher moisture content will make their way
back, leading to temperatures in the mid to upper 90s by next
weekend. With the high nosing into our region, increasing
subsidence should push all precipitation chances away from North
and Central Texas.



/6Z TAFs/

VFR is expected through the period with southerly flow around 10
kt.  No significant aviation concerns expected through Sunday.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  96  76  98  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                68  94  73  96  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               68  92  71  94  76 /   0   0   0   0   5
Denton              68  94  73  97  76 /   0   0   0   0   5
McKinney            69  93  73  96  77 /   0   0   0   0   5
Dallas              73  96  77  98  79 /   0   0   0   0   5
Terrell             68  93  72  94  76 /   0   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           71  94  74  95  77 /   0   0   0   0   5
Temple              68  95  72  95  77 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       68  95  72  97  76 /   0   0   0   0   0




NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion

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