000 FXUS64 KFWD 221842 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 142 PM CDT Sun May 22 2022 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Monday Evening/ After a taste of summer the past several days, a taste of fall is very much welcomed today. A blanket of stratus clouds associated with wrap around moisture and cold air advection has kept temperatures this morning mostly in the 60s. Highs will range from the upper 60s across Northeast Texas, where skies will remain overcast, to mid 70s across the Big Country, where clouds have cleared. Although rain/storm free weather is expected tonight, increasing low level WAA and a slowly retreating cold front will yield low clouds blanketing the region late tonight. Patchy fog and/or mist is also possible early Monday morning as well, with some high res guidance hinting at visibilities falling to around 4-6 miles at times through late Monday morning. Another disturbance associated with a longwave trough located over the western US will arrive on Monday as low level WAA increases across North and Central Texas. The potential for severe weather will be limited during the morning hours given the cooler airmass in place. If any showers or thunderstorms are able to develop tomorrow morning across the Big Country, most activity will be elevated. However, as southerly flow returns and instability increases, a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms with a risk for hail and damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out during the afternoon hours. This threat would be best across portions of Central Texas, but may extend as far north as the I-20 corridor. Otherwise, highs will warm into the mid to upper 70s across most of the region tomorrow afternoon. Garcia && .LONG TERM... /Issued 401 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022/ /Monday Night Onward/ A few systems will impact the region early next week that could bring locally heavy rainfall leading to minor flooding and the threat of at least isolated severe storms. Our confidence of the magnitude and areal extent of the threats remains low at this time since these will be largely driven by mesoscale factors that won`t come into focus until the short term forecast period. This unsettled period will be a result of a deepening and semi stagnant upper trough expected to settle over the lee of the Rockies for a couple days. The first shortwave trough will eject out of the parent trough Monday. It will move over the area Monday night and deepen as it digs into southeast Texas. As mentioned in the short term discussion, this will draw warm and moist air in the low levels back north and help develop widespread showers and thunderstorms over West Texas and the Big Country in the afternoon before moving across the region overnight. There will be a threat of severe weather, mostly across Central Texas where the instability is greater, but the threat is very marginal. Given the amount of rain that fell yesterday across parts of Central Texas, we will have to keep a close eye on areas that received significant rainfall as those locations will have a higher risk of flooding. Most of the precip will come to an end once the shortwave moves east. Quickly on the heels of the leading shortwave will be a second and much stronger one. This shortwave will have stronger frontogenetic forcing and deepen a surface low to our west Tuesday. There`s a low chance that a thunderstorm complex develops to our south in the early morning hours that will disrupt the low level flow, but in general low level warm and moist advection will be enhanced Tuesday ahead of the deepening low to our west. This will result in low level isentropic ascent underneath mid/upper level height falls...resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the surface low`s attendant cold front Tuesday over Western North Texas. This complex should then spread east across the region Tuesday afternoon and evening along a mesoscale-driven cold pool. The cold front will lag well behind the cold pool, then eventually move into the area Wednesday along and ahead of the mid level baroclinic zone. This should result in another resurgence of showers and thunderstorms across the region Wednesday. When the upper trough finally swings through, precip chances should come to an end Wednesday night with the passage of a cold front. There will once again be a severe and flooding threat Tuesday and Wednesday, but our confidence of the extent of the threats remains very low at this timeframe. Temperatures will remain on the cool side of normal through Thursday. Early in the week this will be largely due to cloud cover and precip while Wednesday and Thursday will be due to the cooler air moving in behind the front. Upper level height rises and ridging will build to our west in the middle parts of the week, allowing the surface high to shift east quickly. This will bring a return to warm and moist advection Thursday night, resulting in a warming trend to close out the week. 90 degree temperatures are expected to return to the Metroplex Friday and remain through next weekend. Bonnette && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ Despite a brief period of VFR this afternoon, conditions are expected to deteriorate this evening and tonight as moisture returns. MVFR ceilings associated with wrap around moisture from a surface low located to the east will persist this afternoon, but intermittent periods of VFR are possible through this evening. By 07-08Z IFR ceilings will prevail with visibilities dropping to around 4-5SM. There is a potential ceilings may briefly fall to LIFR after 10-11Z, but confidence was not high enough to include with the 18Z TAF issuance. Conditions are not expected to improve until late Monday morning or early afternoon. However, we`ll also have to keep an eye on the potential for convection tomorrow afternoon with the arrival of a disturbance. Confidence on timing of any convection is low at this time and will continue to be assessed in subsequent issuances. Garcia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 72 62 76 67 76 / 5 5 50 70 80 Waco 76 63 79 67 77 / 10 10 60 70 80 Paris 66 58 74 65 74 / 5 10 20 60 90 Denton 72 58 74 66 75 / 5 10 50 70 80 McKinney 69 59 75 65 75 / 5 5 40 70 90 Dallas 71 62 76 67 76 / 5 5 40 70 80 Terrell 70 61 77 66 76 / 5 5 30 60 90 Corsicana 72 63 79 67 76 / 10 5 40 60 90 Temple 76 64 79 67 78 / 10 10 60 70 80 Mineral Wells 74 60 75 65 76 / 5 10 60 70 70 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$