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Forecast Discussion for FWD NWS Office
FXUS64 KFWD 210512 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1212 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

A weak boundary pushed into KAFW at 03z but has shown very little
southward progress since then. KDFW at 05z did report a north
winds at 3 knots. Winds will be light and variable overnight.
For the TAFs had started off all of the KAFW and KDFW with
northeast winds at 3 knots and left southeast winds around 4 knots
at the remaining sites. Winds should gradually becoming northeast
at around 4 knots at all of the TAF sites by 11z. East to northeast
winds at 5 knots or less are expected to prevail through most of
the day Monday.

Some patchy fog may develop overnight, so have indicated this
with 6SM at 11z with a TEMPO 4SM BKN010 for the 11 to 15z period.
Afterward, VFR conditions are expected to prevail.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 350 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018/
/Through Tonight/

Showers and thunderstorms are currently in progress across the
southeastern quadrant of the forecast area this afternoon where
they will persist through early evening. There remains a threat
for a couple strong or marginally severe storms southeast of a
Cameron to Athens line where the atmosphere is uncapped and
moderately unstable. The two limiting factors and reasons for the
lack of widespread severe storms is the absence of strong large
scale lift, as most new convection is being initiated by previous
thunderstorm outflow, as well as modest deep-layer shear to
support organized storms. Strong winds and some small hail remain
possible with more robust convection over the next few hours.
Otherwise, we`ll continue monitoring the potential for isolated
instances of flooding where prolonged heavy rainfall occurs. A
plume of high PWs approaching 2" is centered across our
southeastern zones where we`ve received reports of rainfall around
1.5-2" per hour. Fortunately, these areas are in need of rainfall
(like much of the region for that matter) and have been able to
handle the welcome rain without much issue thus far. This area of
showers and thunderstorms will continue a southeastward push
through this evening and exit the forecast area by midnight.

Otherwise, we continue to watch a low potential for redevelopment
along the diffuse frontal boundary that has stalled from roughly
Abilene to Cisco to Gainesville. Afternoon satellite imagery
depicts a rather stable cumulus field that has developed along
this boundary where weak low-level convergence is occurring.
Models continue to disagree on the potential for redevelopment
along this boundary over the next 2-4 hours as this area has
slightly destabilized after some clearing and heating this
afternoon. However, given what seems to be a largely subsident
airmass over North Texas and the lack of vertical growth on
cumulus, this potential still appears to be quite low. Have only
included some 20% PoPs for areas northwest of the Metroplex
through the rest of the evening on the off chance that an
isolated shower or storm manages to develop.

Overnight, am expecting generally a lull in any rain/storm
activity as convection continues south of the forecast area along
the effective front/outflow. Winds are expected to become
relatively light overnight, which may favor the development of
some patchy fog given the recent rainfall. This potential will be
conditional on whether skies clear out, which remains uncertain at
this time. Due to uncertainty regarding if/where sufficient
clearing may occur, have not included a mention of fog in the
forecast at this time, though it will need to be monitored



.LONG TERM... /Issued 350 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018/
/Monday Through the End of the Week/

An upper level low will continue diving southward across the
Pacific coast during the day on Monday as the parent trough
continues to amplify. With a constant stream of disturbances
making their way across the region the next several days, low rain
chances will remain in the forecast every day through next weekend.

There will be enough low level moisture during the day on Monday
to maintain a low chance of showers and storms across most of the
region. Forecast soundings continue to show a largely uncapped
atmosphere, but with very little environmental shear, any
thunderstorm that develops will likely be short-lived. These
storms will likely produced outflow boundaries, aiding in the
development of additional storms. A ripple in the atmosphere will
move in from the west late Monday night into Tuesday across West
Texas. Unfortunately, the southwesterly flow aloft will likely
keep all showers and storms well to the west/northwest of the
region. With little modification to the air mass on Tuesday, rain
chances will once again increase during the afternoon. For areas
west of Interstate 35, slightly drier air will likely inhibit the
development of any convection. Areas east of Interstate 35,
however, will remain in a moist environment with little to no
capping inversion aloft. Shear will once again be missing across
the area, but enough instability will be in place for non-severe
convective development.

Wednesday and Thursday`s rain and storm chances will be confined
to areas east of Interstate 35 where the highest concentration of
moisture is expected to remain. Temperatures will be on the rise
throughout the week, with low to mid 90s by Friday. As we move
into Memorial Day weekend, there remains many forecast
uncertainties with regards to precipitation and temperatures.
Temperatures will be dependent on the strength of the trough that
digs down across the Midwest. A cold front may be able to slip
down across the Central Plains, reaching North Texas by Saturday.
If this is the case, temperatures next weekend may be slightly
cooler than currently forecast. If a cold front is not able to
reach the area, temperatures may have to be adjusted upward.
Precipitation chances will also depend on whether or not a low
pressure system slides into the Mississippi River Valley from the
Gulf of Mexico. For now, have kept 20-30% PoPs across the eastern
portions of North Texas.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    66  87  71  89  72 /   5  20  10  30  10
Waco                67  88  68  90  69 /  10  20  10  20   5
Paris               67  86  68  88  69 /  10  20  10  30  10
Denton              65  86  68  89  69 /   5  20  10  30  10
McKinney            66  86  68  88  70 /   5  20  10  30  10
Dallas              68  88  72  90  73 /   5  20  10  30  10
Terrell             66  87  69  89  70 /   5  20  10  30  10
Corsicana           66  87  69  89  70 /  10  20  10  30  10
Temple              67  87  68  89  68 /  10  20  10  20   5
Mineral Wells       66  85  67  88  68 /   5  20  10  30   5





NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion

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