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Forecast Discussion for FWD NWS Office
FXUS64 KFWD 161121 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
621 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

/12Z TAFs/

Concerns -- Isolated to widely scattered TSRA possible over Bonham
arrival gate. VFR/S flow all terminals.

North/Central TX remain within deep S-SEly flow this morning. To
the northeast...TS are ongoing across southwest AR. These TS may
result in the development of outflow boundary in the vicinity of
the Red River later this afternoon which may act as focus for
additional TS development. High-res guidance in agreement that TS
may develop along a KGVT-KTXK line after 21Z...but disagree with
respect to amount of coverage. While TS are not expected at any
TAF sites...impacts to NE arrival gate are possible this
afternoon...depending on amount of coverage. Right now...coverage
appears more likely to be isolated in nature...but trends will
need to be monitored through the afternoon. Convection should
dissipate after 00Z. Otherwise...all terminals will remain VFR
and in S flow through the TAF period.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 241 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019/
/Today and Tonight/

The main challenge for today`s forecast is whether or not we will
see any convection develop in our northeastern counties. This
morning, there is some convection ongoing across far southeastern
Oklahoma and into southwestern Arkansas. In the upper levels, a
subtle impulse is evident on water vapor satellite imagery moving
south around the western periphery of the remnant low of what used
to be Hurricane Barry. This impulse, combined with the potential
for a residual outflow boundary from the ongoing convection, could
allow some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
to develop this afternoon, generally north of I-30.

Looking at the HREF and its respective members, there seem to be
two camps. The more aggressive camp (made up of the NSSL-WRF, ARW,
and NMMB) show more widespread and organized convection. This
group of models develops convection quite rapidly during the
afternoon, and sends it barreling south as a forward-propagating
MCS. The more conservative camp (made up of the 3km NAM and HRRR)
shows more isolated to widely scattered convection developing
during the middle to late afternoon. One point of agreement is
the location and timing of this convection. All of the
aforementioned models show convection developing north of the I-30
corridor (generally northeast of the immediate Metroplex) during
the 3 p.m. to 7 p.m. timeframe. Where they disagree is on the
extent of the coverage. For now, will lean towards the more
conservative solutions for two main reasons. First, the lack of a
well-defined surface focusing mechanism, should generally limit
coverage. The ongoing convection this morning however could
produce a more extensive outflow boundary, but until we have a
better idea of what kind of outflow boundary (if any at all)
develops, decided it was best to lean on the conservative side.
Secondly, upper-level wind shear should be weak, which should
limit convective organization to disorganized, cellular
convection. Again, there is some uncertainty as to how much of a
surface forcing mechanism we will end up with this afternoon, thus
introducing uncertainty with regards to coverage, but what we are
more confident about is the potential for at least isolated
convection northeast of the Metroplex.

In terms of impacts from any of these thunderstorms, there will be
a potential for localized damaging downburst winds. Forecast
soundings show large boundary layer temperature/dewpoint spreads.
Afternoon high temperatures are likely to approach (and
potentially exceed) 100 F. The result is downdraft CAPE values on
the order of 1,000 J/kg, meaning any thunderstorms that develop
would be capable of damaging downburst winds. Any thunderstorms
that form will also be capable of producing brief heavy downpours
and occasional lightning strikes.

As for the rest of the county warning area, a hot day is expected.
Afternoon high temperatures will approach (and could potentially
exceed) 100 F for much of the county warning area. Combined with
dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70, maximum heat index values
will climb over 100 F, and in fact, will exceed Heat Advisory
criteria (105 F) for most locations northeast of a Jacksboro to
Corsicana line. For this reason, a Heat Advisory is in effect for
today. The convective development mentioned in the previous couple
of paragraphs could prevent criteria from being reached in our far
northeastern counties, especially if convection turns out to be
more widespread than currently forecast, but given the low
confidence in the amount of coverage, and for the sake of
consistency, will allow the Heat Advisory to ride as is for



.LONG TERM... /Issued 241 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019/
/Wednesday into Early Next Week/

Mainly hot and dry conditions are expected for much of the
extended forecast, although the building mid-level ridging over
the southern Plains will not be abnormally strong for this time
of year. Regardless, temperatures near 95-100 on Wednesday will
combine with surface dew points hanging tough in the upper 60s to
lower 70s to produce heat indices around 100-110 across our entire
area, with the worst focused along the 35 corridor and eastward,
where the heat advisory will continue.

Through the end of the week and into the early weekend,
conditions are unlikely to change appreciably. Lee troughing
across the central and northern Plains will continue to induce
breezy southerly flow across our region, which will at least
lessen the intensity of the heat and humidity slightly. Highs will
remain in the mid/upper 90s, but dew points at peak heating may
drop a few degrees (versus earlier in the week) thanks to
continued upward mixing/dispersion of boundary-layer moisture and
slow drying of soils/vegetation. In turn, heat indices may fall
more into the 100-105 range for most locations Thursday into
Friday; still, the heat advisory may need to be extended into at
least Thursday for some eastern areas. Otherwise, southerly flow
may bring scattered low-level stratocu into Central Texas and the
Brazos Valley early each morning, before diurnal mixing converts
these clouds into fair-weather cumulus.

Late this weekend into early next week, most ensemble and
deterministic guidance indicates that heights will rise
dramatically over the Rockies, while a trough will develop across
the eastern US. The GFS and some of its ensemble members (although
they remain un-FV3) indicate a vigorous shortwave trough will
drive a front and unseasonably dry air south across our area by
Tuesday. This solution seems rather over-amplified, though, and a
solution closer to the ECMWF would appear more likely, with a
front hanging up to our northeast, yet perhaps boosting our
precipitation chances by next Tuesday. Will continue to maintain a
dry forecast at such an extended range, though, given inherent
timing/uncertainty with the synoptic evolution.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    98  79  98  78  98 /   5   5   0   0   0
Waco                97  77  98  76  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               93  75  93  76  93 /  20  10   0   0   0
Denton              98  78  98  78  98 /   5   5   0   0   0
McKinney            97  78  98  77  97 /  10   5   0   0   0
Dallas              99  80  99  78  98 /   5   5   0   0   0
Terrell             96  77  98  78  98 /   5   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           95  77  94  75  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              96  76  95  75  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       98  75  98  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0


Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for




NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion

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