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Forecast Discussion for FWD NWS Office
FXUS64 KFWD 302329

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
529 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

/Through Wednesday/

As the last day of November draws to a close, it will give way to
a mild start to December. Following a day of 70-degree highs,
overnight lows will only fall into the upper 40s and 50s, all
of which are about 10 degrees above normal. Southerly low-level
flow will persist through tonight, sending modest moisture
content into Central and East Texas. This could support the
development of patchy fog and perhaps some low stratus mainly east
of I-35 in Central Texas around daybreak tomorrow. Any fog or low
clouds should mix out readily by mid-morning.

In the meantime, a shortwave within northwest flow aloft will
send a weak cold frontal zone into North Texas which will progress
through the entire forecast area during the day. Aside from a
gradual north wind shift, this front will be rather
inconsequential with minimal temperature/moisture contrast across
the boundary. Highs should be comparable to today, mainly in the
low/mid 70s. Skies will remain mostly clear with some passing
cirrus being the extent of afternoon cloud cover.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 151 PM CST Tue Nov 30 2021/
/Wednesday Night and Beyond/

Northwest flow aloft will continue through the end of the week as
a result of a ridge over the western CONUS. Cool overnight
temperatures in the 40s are expected Wednesday night. However,
sunny skies and south to southwesterly winds near the surface will
help afternoon temperatures climb into the upper 70s and lower
80s on Thursday and Friday. While these readings will be
unseasonably warm, they should remain several degrees below
record. Overnight lows will be mild in the 50s for Thursday

An approaching shortwave from the west is expected to affect
North and Central Texas late Friday into early Saturday morning
and bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms to areas east of
the I-35 corridor. Highest rain and storm chances will be across
East Texas. A secondary shortwave from the Northern Plains will
also be a player in our sensible weather going into the weekend by
sending a relatively weak cold front across the region Saturday
as well. The exact timing of each system remains to be seen and
will have an effect on specific timing, coverage, and rainfall
amount details. Despite model disagreement with regards to
specifics, though, there is decent model agreement that at least
some rain should move across portions of North and East Texas by
early Saturday. While severe weather is not expected at this time,
thunderstorms are still possible, and some may produce gusty
winds and small hail. There likely will not be enough moisture for
convection to tap into to provide much in the way of rainfall, so
expect rainfall totals to be fairly low for any areas fortunate
enough to get any rainfall.

After these features move out of our area by Saturday afternoon,
seasonable temperatures and drier conditions will be ushered into
North and Central Texas to finish out the weekend. Highs Saturday
through Monday will likely be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than those
on Friday.



/00z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through most of the TAF period, although there is
a low-end potential for MVFR visibility/cigs in parts of Central
and East Texas tomorrow morning. These conditions will remain
absent from this TAF issuance, but short term guidance trends
could eventually necessitate Tempo MVFR conditions at Waco. More
than likely this would be in the form of patchy fog, but pockets
of low stratus could also develop especially around or shortly
after daybreak as mixing ensues.

By mid morning, a weak cold front will become draped across parts
of North Texas which will progress southward during the day. This
will result in a very gradual wind shift from south to west to
north over a 6-8 hour period. By late afternoon, a light north
wind should prevail beneath VFR skies.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    52  74  48  77  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                53  76  48  76  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               49  71  44  73  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              46  74  42  77  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            50  74  45  76  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              53  74  49  76  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             51  74  46  75  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           53  75  50  76  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              51  76  48  76  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       46  74  43  79  54 /   0   0   0   0   0




NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion

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