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Forecast Discussion for FWD NWS Office
000
FXUS64 KFWD 022043
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
343 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 246 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020/
/This Afternoon through Saturday Morning/

The main concern in the short term forecast period will be the
potential for showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms Friday
evening/night - early Saturday morning may be strong to severe.
The main risk will be large hail. In addition, heavy rainfall
could result in the potential for flooding. The other noteworthy
change will be the colder conditions. In summary, temperatures
Friday (parts of the area) and Saturday (most of the area) will be
15 to 20 degrees lower than normal.

Showers with isolated thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon...especially across Central Texas as a conveyor of WAA
continues to overspread the area. Most of this activity is
expected to be elevated. Zonal flow aloft combined with building
instability may support a few strong storms this afternoon, but
given the elevated nature of activity...the main risk would be
small hail. Temperatures this afternoon will likely slowly climb
into the upper 60s to low/mid 70s thanks to widespread cloud
cover/increasing moisture. I expect a brief lull in rain/isolated
storms this evening before low level flow intensifies and
resultant WAA ensues. The best chance for pre-dawn showers on
Friday will be across East Texas and along the Red River where
the greatest WAA is forecast. Overnight conditions will remain
mild with temperatures in the 60s.

A pretty strong cold front---currently knifing through the
Panhandles and western Oklahoma---will blast south toward North
Texas. The front is expected to make it through the Red River
Valley by daybreak Friday....I-20 around noon and then Central
Texas by sundown. Much colder air will plunge southward such that
daytime high temperatures for locations near and north of I-20
will likely occur early in the day with the thermometer falling
through the late morning and afternoon hours. Across Central
Texas, however, the thermal axis should set up and this will
equate to temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees
(despite the widespread cloud cover). This type of pattern is more
akin to something we`d see in the cool season given the shallow
nature of the colder air. The NAM appears to have the best handle
on this late season shallow cold airmass (as it typically does)
and I`ve sided mostly with its solution (faster and farther south
with FROPA).

The speed of the front may be the equalizer as it pertains to
severe weather. The fast frontal progression should mean that most
updrafts will be quickly undercut by the surging cold air
southward. With storms NOT being rooted in the near-surface layer,
the tendency for damaging winds and tornadoes will be pretty
close to zero. However, there will be a large hail threat as
plenty of instability (close to 2500 J/kg) and deep layer shear
(40 knots) will exist for organized storm modes. This severe
weather threat is expected to increase late Friday afternoon and
could linger well into the pre-dawn hours on Saturday. If the
front really slows, then the window for surface based convection
will increase substantially with the damaging wind and tornado
risk existing (though low level wind shear appears very marginal
for tornadoes). PWAT values are expected to increase into the
1.3-1.45" range near the front and this may promote some heavy
rainfall late Friday into Saturday. Given that this area has seen
a decent amount of rain over the past 30-60 days, there will be a
risk for flooding of creeks, streams and rivers.

Rain and isolated thunderstorm chances may continue into early
Saturday. Should enough instability remain, the severe weather
threat may persist as well. The big story on Saturday will be the
much cooler conditions. Morning lows may dip down into the 30s
across western North Texas with 40s elsewhere. CAA will diminish
some through the day on Saturday and highs may climb into the
60s...except across the Big Country where temperatures may remain
in the 50s.

Bain

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Saturday through next Thursday/

The active weather continues this weekend and unfortunately through
next week. At this time, the highest rain chances continues to be
on Saturday, Monday and again later in the week. We will get a
few breaks from the rain, but most of the region will see multiple
rounds of showers and storms by the time next weekend arrives. In
addition to the rain chances, a warming trend is in the forecast
for next week. Afternoon temperatures will easily reach the mid to
upper 80s by the middle of next week.

A cool and wet Saturday is expected across all North and Central TX.
We will wake up with temperatures in the 40s, but it will only
warm up into the 50s to low 60s Saturday afternoon. With the
cooler airmass in place, the wet weather and the overcast skies
will keep the temperatures 10-18 degrees below normal for early
April. In terms of the precipitation, areas along and south of I-20
will have the highest rain and storm chances as a disturbance
moves in from the southwest. It will mainly be showers, but a few
embedded thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon and
evening. We can`t rule out some flooding issues across parts of
Central TX, especially over the areas that receive heavy rain
Friday evening/night. We might get a break from the rain Saturday
night, but rain chances increase again on Sunday.

As we`ve been advertising over the last few days, more rain is
coming next week. Both the GFS and ECMWF show southwest flow
aloft with multiple disturbances traveling over the southern
Plains. This, combined with the fact that we will stay in the
warm sector every day, will result in multiple rounds of showers
and embedded thunderstorms through at least next Friday. No severe
weather is expected at this time, however, a much stronger storm
system is set to arrive late next week and will bring better lift
for more widespread storm chances. We will continue to monitor
the trends over the next few days. With these multi-day rain
chances, we are looking at rainfall totals ranging from the 1-2.5"
across North Texas and over 3" across parts of Central TX. This
means that there will be some flooding issues each day, especially
across far south Central TX. Additional rises on rivers and
creeks may also occur. It is important to mention that if these
totals verify, some locations will receive their normal rainfall
totals for April in just the first two weeks of the month.
Continue to monitor the forecast over the next couple of days for
updates on specific details!

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 246 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020/
/18 UTC TAF Cycle/

Concerns---Ceiling trends...FROPA and SHRA/TSRA potential.

MVFR cigs will likely linger through a good portion of the
afternoon as low level moisture continues to funnel northward.
There will be a brief opportunity for VFR at D/FW and DAL late
this afternoon/early evening. At this time, confidence is low to
medium in regard to cigs lifting into the VFR category.
Unscheduled amendments to address ceiling trends may be needed
later this afternoon. Ascent will increase this afternoon across
Central TX and given that instability is expected to be of
sufficient values, a 3-4 hour window of VCTS---starting at 2100
UTC---at Waco appears warranted. There`s a non-zero threat for
SHRA/TSRA INVOF D10 TAFs (especially AFW...FTW and D/FW) this
afternoon, but confidence is not high enough to include at this
time.

By 0200 UTC, all sites should be MVFR as the near surface layer
cools. MVFR will likely prevail through the remainder of the TAF
cycle for all sites. Low level ascent will lead to patchy
drizzle/showers across Central TX. As a result, cigs should fall
into the IFR category briefly at Waco on Friday morning.
Borderline IFR is not out of the realm of possibly at Metroplex
TAFs, but confidence is not high enough to mention at this time.

FROPA appears likely around midday at Metroplex TAFs. While
ascent will be on the increase across North Texas Friday morning,
decent capping ahead of the front will likely only result in
SHRA. Near FROPA, the cap may weaken enough such that updrafts
can realize some instability and potentially grow into TSRA.
Right now, confidence is too low to include in the extended
reaches of the D/FW 30 hour TAF, but trends in model guidance will
be monitored. North winds of up to 15 knots can be expected with
gusts as high as 25 knots possible. We will need to keep an eye on
postfrontal SHRA/TSRA late Friday into early Saturday, though
this is just outside of the current 30 hour D/FW TAF.

Bain

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    62  68  45  60  53 /  20  50  30  50  30
Waco                64  77  47  60  55 /  50  80  60  60  40
Paris               60  66  44  62  53 /  20  70  50  50  30
Denton              62  67  44  59  51 /  20  40  20  40  30
McKinney            62  66  44  60  52 /  20  60  30  40  30
Dallas              63  68  46  60  54 /  20  60  30  50  30
Terrell             62  72  45  62  53 /  20  80  50  50  30
Corsicana           63  77  46  61  55 /  40  80  60  60  40
Temple              64  80  48  60  55 /  60  70  70  70  40
Mineral Wells       62  62  44  57  50 /  10  30  20  50  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

17/24

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion

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