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Forecast Discussion for FWD NWS Office
FXUS64 KFWD 270857

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
257 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 152 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022/
/Overnight through Monday/

A quieter night is expected tonight as cloud cover and rain
associated with last night`s system continues to pull away from
the region. Some lingering low cloud cover will persist primarily
north of I-20 tonight, but the precipitation has ended. Sunday
will feature mostly sunny skies across a good chunk of the region,
but another fast moving upstream shortwave will swing through the
Plains around midday. As it does, lingering low level moisture and
cloud cover (currently to our north) will likely spread back to
the south and west through the afternoon. This will result in
mostly cloudy skies for areas generally along and north of I-20.
Drier air will eventually spread into North Texas by evening and
allow the cloud cover to scatter out. Highs should top out in the
upper 50s and lower 60s today.

Southerly flow will return late Sunday night into Monday allowing
moisture to slowly spread back to the north, but cloud cover will
likely hold off until Monday night. High temperatures on Monday
will be a few degrees warmer with readings in the mid to upper



/Monday Night Onward/

An amplifying upper trough will induce cyclogenesis on the lee
side of the Rockies Tuesday. In response, low level winds will
turn southwesterly, drawing moisture into North & Central Texas
and providing the warmest temperatures of the week due to
downsloping winds. Highs will reach the mid and upper 70s areawide
before a strong cool down arrives with the arrival of a potent
cold front.

Ahead of the front, a potential for strong to severe storms exists
for East Texas Tuesday. A warm sector setting up with low/mid 60s
dewpoints will align with plentiful shear and decent instability
over the area. However, the primary uncertainties right now are
1) the degree of instability available and 2) the timing of the
system. The potential for earlier precipitation Tuesday and cloud
cover expected across the area will be the main inhibitors for
surface heating and may limit what convection is able to develop.
While the better alignment of parameters favorable for severe
weather looks to set up to the east, guidance is in fairly good
agreement that East Texas will see the potential for strong to
severe storms later in the day. Regarding the timing, if the
system is less progressive than currently forecast, the threat for
severe weather would increase, which will be monitored closely.

Most areas will stay rain-free with the arrival of the cold front,
with much drier and colder air filling in behind. Temperatures
Wednesday will only reach the upper 40s to mid 50s for afternoon
highs as the cold front should be through the entire area by
daybreak Wednesday. A shortwave late Thursday and into Friday will
bring additional low rain chances to the area with temperatures
reaching the 60s again Friday and into the weekend.



.AVIATION... /Issued 152 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022/
/6Z TAFs/

Wrap around cloud cover is primarily north of D10 at this hour
with VFR prevailing and a light west wind. These winds will
gradually become more northwesterly by mid morning Sunday. In
addition, another disturbance will swing through the Plains Sunday
afternoon and may allow some of these MVFR cigs to spread back to
the south and west into the D10 airspace. We`ll show a few hours
of MVFR cigs from 18-23Z at the major airports with VFR returning
Sunday night. Outside of these cigs, no significant aviation
concerns are expected.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    61  40  65  56  76 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                64  39  68  55  77 /   0   0   0   5  10
Paris               59  39  60  49  72 /   0   0   0   5  30
Denton              60  35  65  52  75 /   0   0   0   0   5
McKinney            59  37  62  52  75 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dallas              60  41  65  56  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
Terrell             61  39  64  53  75 /   0   0   0   5  20
Corsicana           63  43  67  55  76 /   0   0   0   5  20
Temple              65  40  68  54  77 /   0   0   0   5  10
Mineral Wells       61  37  70  52  76 /   0   0   0   0   0




NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion

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