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Forecast Discussion for FWD NWS Office
FXUS64 KFWD 232332

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
632 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Main TAF challenges with this issuance are MVFR cigs overnight and
cold front late afternoon Saturday.

After a day of mostly MVFR cigs across North and Central
Texas...cigs have managed to lift somewhat...and are now VFR
across most of the region. Rich boundary layer moisture in place
over the region should allow cigs to lower once again late tonight
as temperatures cool. All TAF sites (Metroplex and KACT) should
become MVFR by the 0600-0700Z timeframe. Strong boundary layer
winds (remaining 12-15 KT during the overnight) should prevent
cigs from lowering to IFR...except perhaps briefly at KACT where
moisture will be a little more abundant. Given low
confidence...opted to exclude TEMPO IFR for now...but note that
cigs will likely lower to below FL020 for at least a few hours
before daybreak.

After daybreak Saturday...cigs should improve slowly through the
day...becoming VFR by late morning or early afternoon. Regarding
the cold front...right now it appears that the cold front will
stop just north of the Metroplex TAF sites. KAFW could see N`ly
flow for a brief period during the afternoon...but flow looks to
remain weak. Right now...confidence is too low that the front will
make it to Metroplex TAF sites (let alone have a significant
operational impact)...thus change groups to N`ly flow were kept
out for now. Later issuances may have to address this however if
confidence increases that the front may make it farther south than
forecast currently.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 309 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018/
/Tonight through Saturday Evening/

Warm and breezy conditions will likely persist across North and
Central TX tonight and into Saturday. A diffuse cold front will
slide southward into the area Saturday morning, but is unlikely to
result in much of a dramatic temperature change or rain chances on

Tonight---Afternoon stratocumulus will slowly dwindle in areal
coverage with areas near and immediately near and east of I-35
likely seeing more clouds than sun around dusk. Low level flow
should increase as a cyclone across South-Central Kansas
intensifies. An attendant front will seep southward and should
near the Red River around or just after daybreak Saturday. This
should help bring another plume of moisture northward which will
blanket the area once again. Overnight conditions will remain mild
with most areas only falling into the 60s courtesy of the breezy
conditions and cloud cover.

Saturday---The start of the weekend looks rain-free as a cold
front stalls near the I-20 corridor. With shortwave ridging aloft
and decent capping, ascent favorable for thunderstorms does not
appear to be in place. In addition, low level flow will veer ahead
of the stalling cold front and this also supports a mostly rain-
free forecast. We will continue to monitor hi-resolution guidance
for hints at any storm development as sufficient deep layer shear
and instability will be in place to support organized convective
modes. Again, at this time, the development of storms on Saturday
appears unlikely. It`ll be unseasonably warm on Saturday as
temperatures will climb into the 80s with near 90 degree
heat across the west and southwest.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 309 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018/
/Saturday Night through Friday/

The primary concern Saturday night will be thunderstorm
development along a stalled front. Models are in relatively good
agreement that the front will remain between the Red River and
the I-20 corridor through the night Saturday. Moisture
convergence along the front should be weak, but a fast moving
shortwave moving through westerly flow aloft should provide
enough lift to produce scattered storms. Any storms that develop
Saturday night should remain elevated but a few may contain some

The front should lift back north of the Red River on Sunday in
response to a deepening low pressure system across the western
states. The approaching system will bring a steady increase in
large scale lift which will destabilize the mid levels of the
atmosphere as well as increase moisture through much of the
troposphere. Although some warm air advection showers will be
possibe Sunday morning, thunderstorm chances should hold off
until Sunday afternoon/evening when the dryline makes a run at the
western counties. Confidence is fairly high that storms will
develop on the dryline but we are less certain on exactly how far
east the dryline will move. Any storms that do develop will have a
potential to become severe with a threat for large hail and
damaging winds. As of now, wind profiles don`t suggest much of a
tornado threat but it can never be ruled out completely with
deep/moist convection.

The upper low will deepen and cut off across the Desert Southwest
Monday through Wednesday which will keep the atmosphere across
the Southern Plains moist and unstable, resulting in increasing
shower/thunderstorm chances. The potential for strong to severe
storms will also continue through Monday night but there should be
a transition to less of a severe weather threat and more of a
heavy rainfall threat Tuesday through Wednesday when a cold front
moves into the region. Exactly where and when the heavy rainfall
will occur will be entirely dependent on the track of the upper
low and where the cold front stalls, but for now we expect the
eastern half of the region to have the deepest moisture and
therefore the best potential for heavy rainfall. The good news is
that much of the region will receive rainfall amounts between 1
and 2 inches with higher amounts likely across the east and
northeast zones. This rain will continue to help the spring green
up and will ease the fire threat in the west.

Long range models are in fairly good agreement that the upper low
will open up and translate east across the state Thursday,
bringing decreasing rain chances from west to east. However, some
lingering rain/storms are possible Thursday night through Friday
as a cold front and a final piece of upper level energy move into
the region.

Temperatures Sunday and Monday will be warm with highs generally
in the 80s. Some low 90s will even be possibe in the far west
Sunday if clouds can clear and adiabatic warming can be realized.
Increasing rain chances and the arrival of a cold front will
result in slightly cooler temperatures (mainly 70s) Tuesday,
especially across the northern half of the region. Wednesday and
Thursday will be even cooler once the front moves into Central
Texas and rain/storms continue. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will
be generally in the 60s.

Looking ahead, it appears that Easter weekend will be dry and warm
with building high pressure and the return of Gulf moisture.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  89  65  84  66 /  10  10  20  30  30
Waco                65  86  64  84  64 /  10  10   5  20  20
Paris               64  82  59  72  60 /  10  10  20  30  40
Denton              65  86  62  83  64 /  10  10  30  30  40
McKinney            64  85  62  80  64 /  10  10  20  30  30
Dallas              65  87  65  84  66 /  10  10  20  30  30
Terrell             64  83  63  80  64 /  10  10  10  30  20
Corsicana           65  84  64  81  64 /  10  10   5  20  20
Temple              65  85  64  82  64 /  10   5   5  20  20
Mineral Wells       64  89  62  89  64 /   5  10  20  40  40





NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion