000
FXUS64 KFWD 191837
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
137 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Saturday/

Drier mid level air continues to filter in from the north this
afternoon, limiting precipitation chances to only across Central
Texas through the evening. Primarily isolated convection is
expected this afternoon generally near and south of a line from
Goldthwaite to West to Athens. The richer moisture has shunted to
the south where most activity will remain, but weak convergence
along the boundary remaining across Central Texas will be still be
supportive of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Similar to the previous few days, any stronger storm would be
capable of gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall. After
rain chances diminish tonight, it should be fairly quiet across
the region with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Less moisture in the area will be somewhat short lived, as winds
gradually veering more southerly will advect low level moisture
back into the area. This will send well above normal PWAT values
back into Central Texas by the morning, and into North Texas by
midday. Weak warm air advection, combined with the moisture in
place, will again support the development of showers and storms.
Chances will mostly exist for East Texas in the morning before
expanding to the entire forecast area in the afternoon. The
overall coverage will remain low, so broad, mostly 20-30% PoPs
are being advertised. Otherwise, temperatures will climb into the
mid 90s tomorrow as the next system and real rain maker positions
itself to just to the west.

Gordon

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 412 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022/
/Next Week/

A prolonged period of unsettled weather will dominate the upcoming
week. A Great Lakes trough will help drag negative mid-level
height anomalies and an associated surface front into the Southern
Plains by Sunday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday
night into Monday will induce low-level cyclogenesis over North
Texas. And with a weakness aloft, additional rounds of rainfall
will create a feedback mechanism that strengthens/maintains the
area of low pressure, which in turn will encourage the
development of more showers and storms. This feature is progged to
remain parked over our CWA throughout much of the upcoming week.
As a result, PoPs will be -far- above climatology (which during
late August means 12-hour PoPs of 10-15 percent along the I-35
corridor). Accompanying cloud cover will keep daytime temperatures
as much as 10-15 degrees below normal, particularly during the
wettest days of Monday and Tuesday when rain-cooled areas may fail
to reach 80 degrees. (And to think DFW Airport didn`t have -any-
temperatures below 80F from July 24 to August 5.)

Deep tropical moisture will assure extraordinary precipitable
water values, primarily above 2 inches early in the week. In fact,
some solutions project near-record values during the Sunday night
into Monday rain event. As is often the case with convective
activity in a tropical environment, particularly with a rainy
period of this duration, QPF varies considerably. For the entire
7-day forecast period (through Thursday), ensemble means are in
excess of 3 inches across the entire CWA, the vast majority of
which falls early next week. The box of our box-and-whisker plot,
which comprises the middle half of all solutions, ranges from
1.50" to more than 6 inches. With a pattern nearly impossible to
remain rain-free, even the driest solutions have widespread
wetting rainfall. Despite long-term drought conditions in place,
slow-moving cells with intense rainfall efficiency will produce
excessive runoff that could resulting in flooding. This flood
threat will increase deeper into the event as the ground steadily
saturates.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Low clouds this morning have scattered and lifted, marking the
return of VFR conditions at all sites. Winds will gradually veer
and become more southeasterly today and remain SE at 10 kts or
less through the period.

For Waco, there convection should remain well to the south this
afternoon, with very low probabilities of impacts at ACT.

Gordon

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  77  95  77  90 /   5  10  20  20  60
Waco                93  75  96  77  95 /  30  20  20  10  40
Paris               90  70  92  73  85 /   5  10  20  20  70
Denton              93  74  96  75  87 /   5   5  20  30  70
McKinney            91  73  93  75  87 /   5  10  20  20  70
Dallas              92  77  94  78  90 /   5  10  20  20  60
Terrell             92  73  94  76  90 /   5  20  30  20  60
Corsicana           92  75  94  77  92 /  20  20  30  10  50
Temple              91  73  95  75  95 /  40  20  20  10  40
Mineral Wells       96  73  96  75  91 /   5   5  20  20  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion