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Forecast Discussion for FWD NWS Office
FXUS64 KFWD 060003

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
603 PM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

/Through Saturday Evening/

Water vapor imagery reveals a shortwave currently dropping through
the Arklatex, while RADAR indicates all convection associated with
the feature remaining off to our east and south. There is just
enough moisture with the system to squeeze out a few sprinkles
between now and midnight, but measurable precipitation is not
expected. Gusty northwest winds behind the initial cold front
should shift to a more northeasterly direction as a second front
back-doors its way through the region. Wind gusts should also drop
off over the next few hours as boundary layer winds decouple.

Skies are expected to remain broken to overcast for much of the
night due to shallow moisture above the frontal layer. Cold air
advection should still be strong enough to allow temperatures to
fall into the upper 30s to mid 40s by daybreak Saturday. A
developing ridge on the heels of the exiting shortwave should make
for a nice Saturday with decreasing clouds and highs in the 60s.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 141 PM CST Fri Mar 5 2021/
/Sunday onward/

Warmer temperatures and dry weather are expected for much of next
week. These warmer conditions will come as upper-level ridging
strengthens across the region and southerly flow increases. During
the first couple days of the week (Monday and Tuesday), some
elevated fire weather concerns will exist near and west of U.S.
Highway 281 as afternoon minimum relative humidity values drop to
less than 30 percent. While we are not expecting Red Flag
conditions, the severe freeze from a few weeks ago has left a lot
of stressed and/or dormant vegetation across the region. This
means that otherwise marginal fire weather conditions may receive
a "boost" from very receptive fuels across the region, leading to
a higher fire weather threat. This has been seen lately with an
increased number of initial attack fires. If current trends hold,
a Grass Fire Danger Statement may be needed for at least Monday.

Towards the middle of next week, humidity will increase markedly,
with dewpoints likely to be into the upper 50s to even lower 60s
by Wednesday afternoon. This increased humidity should shut down
any fire weather threat, as well as lead to warmer overnight lows.
Tuesday Night through Thursday Night appear likely to have lows
in the 60s for some locations.

By the end of next week, the forecast gets a bit more uncertain.
The models are in good agreement with respect to the general
upper-level pattern showing a strong upper-level trough digging
into the Southwest. The models disagree significantly on the
surface details however with the GFS showing more widespread
precipitation by Friday, and the ECMWF showing less coverage. For
now, will show Chance PoPs during this timeframe, with a mention
for a slight chance of thunder. It is too early to speculate about
any severe weather potential, but given the time of the year, it
never hurts to review one`s severe weather safety plans.
Regardless, this looks like the best chance for precipitation
through the next 7-10 days.



/00Z TAFs/

Post-frontal stratus will likely keep MVFR cigs in place this
evening through much of the overnight period. A secondary front
has already shifted the DFW area winds from northwest to
northeast, and this should occur at KACT in a few hours. Ceilings
should scatter Saturday morning as the shortwave moves out and
ridging develops in its wake. Winds should eventually become
light easterly around 07/00Z.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    43  64  40  67  45 /  10   0   0   0   0
Waco                46  64  39  68  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
Paris               38  60  37  64  40 /   5   0   0   0   0
Denton              39  64  36  67  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
McKinney            40  63  37  67  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dallas              44  65  43  68  47 /  10   0   0   0   0
Terrell             41  62  38  67  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           44  63  40  67  44 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple              45  64  38  68  43 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       41  64  38  68  42 /   5   0   0   0   0




NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion

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