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FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 5, 6:03 PM CST ...New Short Term, Aviation...

903 FXUS64 KFWD 060003 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 603 PM CST Fri Mar 5 2021...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Saturday Evening/ Water vapor imagery reveals a shortwave currently dropping through the Arklatex, while RADAR indicates all convection associated with the feature remaining off to our east and south. There is just enough moisture with the system to squeeze out a few sprinkles between now and midnight, but measurable precipitation is not expected. Gusty northwest winds behind the initial cold front should shift to a more northeasterly direction as a second front back-doors its way through the region. Wind gusts should also drop off over the next few hours as boundary layer winds decouple. Skies are expected to remain broken to overcast for much of the night due to shallow moisture above the frontal layer. Cold air advection should still be strong enough to allow temperatures to fall into the upper 30s to mid 40s by daybreak Saturday. A developing ridge on the heels of the exiting shortwave should make for a nice Saturday with decreasing clouds and highs in the 60s. 30 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 141 PM CST Fri Mar 5 2021/ /Sunday onward/ Warmer temperatures and dry weather are expected for much of next week. These warmer conditions will come as upper-level ridging strengthens across the region and southerly flow increases. During the first couple days of the week (Monday and Tuesday), some elevated fire weather concerns will exist near and west of U.S. Highway 281 as afternoon minimum relative humidity values drop to less than 30 percent. While we are not expecting Red Flag conditions, the severe freeze from a few weeks ago has left a lot of stressed and/or dormant vegetation across the region. This means that otherwise marginal fire weather conditions may receive a "boost" from very receptive fuels across the region, leading to a higher fire weather threat. This has been seen lately with an increased number of initial attack fires. If current trends hold, a Grass Fire Danger Statement may be needed for at least Monday. Towards the middle of next week, humidity will increase markedly, with dewpoints likely to be into the upper 50s to even lower 60s by Wednesday afternoon. This increased humidity should shut down any fire weather threat, as well as lead to warmer overnight lows. Tuesday Night through Thursday Night appear likely to have lows in the 60s for some locations. By the end of next week, the forecast gets a bit more uncertain. The models are in good agreement with respect to the general upper-level pattern showing a strong upper-level trough digging into the Southwest. The models disagree significantly on the surface details however with the GFS showing more widespread precipitation by Friday, and the ECMWF showing less coverage. For now, will show Chance PoPs during this timeframe, with a mention for a slight chance of thunder. It is too early to speculate about any severe weather potential, but given the time of the year, it never hurts to review one's severe weather safety plans. Regardless, this looks like the best chance for precipitation through the next 7-10 days. Godwin && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ Post-frontal stratus will likely keep MVFR cigs in place this evening through much of the overnight period. A secondary front has already shifted the DFW area winds from northwest to northeast, and this should occur at KACT in a few hours. Ceilings should scatter Saturday morning as the shortwave moves out and ridging develops in its wake. Winds should eventually become light easterly around 07/00Z. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 43 64 40 67 45 / 10 0 0 0 0 Waco 46 64 39 68 44 / 10 0 0 0 0 Paris 38 60 37 64 40 / 5 0 0 0 0 Denton 39 64 36 67 42 / 10 0 0 0 0 McKinney 40 63 37 67 42 / 10 0 0 0 0 Dallas 44 65 43 68 47 / 10 0 0 0 0 Terrell 41 62 38 67 42 / 10 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 44 63 40 67 44 / 5 0 0 0 0 Temple 45 64 38 68 43 / 5 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 41 64 38 68 42 / 5 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

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06.Mar.2021


DALLAS/FORT WORTH Mar 5 Climate Report: High: 71 Low: 53 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0

417 CDUS44 KFWD 052230 CLIDFW CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 430 PM CST FRI MAR 05 2021......................................THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MARCH 5 2021... VALID AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1898 TO 2021 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 71 159 PM 96 1991 65 6 72 MINIMUM 53 740 AM 20 1989 44 9 44 AVERAGE 62 PRECIPITATION (IN) TODAY 0.00 1.60 1933 0.12 -0.12 T MONTH TO DATE 0.19 0.55 -0.36 0.88 SINCE MAR 1 0.19 0.55 -0.36 0.88 SINCE JAN 1 3.26 5.34 -2.08 9.76 SNOWFALL (IN) TODAY 0.0 1.7 1954 0.0 0.0 0.0 MONTH TO DATE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE MAR 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE JUL 1 5.0 1.4 3.6 0.2 SNOW DEPTH 0................................................................... WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 23 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION S (170) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 30 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION S (170) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 12.2.......................................................... THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW NORMAL RECORD YEAR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 65 90 1916 1929 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 45 20 1989 SUNRISE AND SUNSET MARCH 5 2021.........SUNRISE 651 AM CST SUNSET 629 PM CST MARCH 6 2021.........SUNRISE 649 AM CST SUNSET 629 PM CST - INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS. R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED. MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING. T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT. $$

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05.Mar.2021


WACO Mar 5 Climate Report: High: 77 Low: 53 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0

313 CDUS44 KFWD 052230 CLIACT CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 430 PM CST FRI MAR 05 2021......................................THE WACO CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MARCH 5 2021... VALID AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1901 TO 2021 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 77 253 PM 97 1991 66 11 73 MINIMUM 53 726 AM 20 2019 45 8 45 AVERAGE 65 PRECIPITATION (IN) TODAY 0.00 1.11 1937 0.11 -0.11 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 0.27 0.56 -0.29 3.03 SINCE MAR 1 0.27 0.56 -0.29 3.03 SINCE JAN 1 1.98 5.31 -3.33 12.15 SNOWFALL (IN) TODAY 0.0 0.7 2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 MONTH TO DATE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE MAR 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE JUL 1 9.0 0.8 8.2 0.1 SNOW DEPTH 0................................................................... WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 23 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION NW (330) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 35 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION N (340) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 13.2.......................................................... THE WACO CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW NORMAL RECORD YEAR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 66 91 1916 1991 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 45 20 2015 SUNRISE AND SUNSET MARCH 5 2021.........SUNRISE 651 AM CST SUNSET 630 PM CST MARCH 6 2021.........SUNRISE 650 AM CST SUNSET 631 PM CST - INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS. R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED. MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING. T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT. $$

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05.Mar.2021


The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Mar 5, 19:46z for portions of FWD

238 WUUS01 KWNS 051948 PTSDY1 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0146 PM CST FRI MAR 05 2021 VALID TIME 052000Z - 061200Z PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1... TORNADO... &&... HAIL... 0.05 28619458 30069536 30949606 31499601 31799530 31569439 31139379 30509323 29189259 &&... WIND... 0.05 28749468 29989532 30969606 31579595 31809524 31539439 31059370 30429318 29229260 && CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1... CATEGORICAL... MRGL 28819468 30089539 30929606 31529599 31819529 31549438 31129378 30399316 29199258 TSTM 28319551 29659599 30679654 32609696 33579716 34549606 34779499 34509419 33189331 31769208 30899114 29839008 28398845 && THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S GLS 30 NNW HOU 30 NE CLL 45 SE CRS 40 S TYR 30 NE LFK 35 W POE 20 N LCH 50 SW 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ESE PSX 45 W HOU 10 WNW CLL 20 SSW DAL 30 WSW GYI 30 SW MLC 25 SW RKR 35 NNE DEQ 30 W ELD 30 NNE ESF 45 WSW MCB 15 SE MSY 85 SE BVE.

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05.Mar.2021


FWD issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Mar 5, 1:46 PM CST

650 FLUS44 KFWD 051946 HWOFWD Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 146 PM CST Fri Mar 5 2021 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-061215- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 146 PM CST Fri Mar 5 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Dry and breezy conditions will lead to an elevated fire weather threat on Sunday and Monday, particularly near and west of U.S. Highway 281. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will come towards the end of next week, though the prospects for severe weather are uncertain at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$

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05.Mar.2021


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