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FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 20, 5:53 AM CST

993 FXUS64 KFWD 201153 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 553 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2019 .AVIATION... /12Z TAFs/ Low level clouds have invaded all of the North and Central Texas TAF locations. With MVFR across the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex and IFR at Waco, these conditions are expected to persist through the early-afternoon. Daytime mixing will lead to VFR by mid- afternoon and persist through around midnight. The low- level jet will be in full force for much of the day with winds in excess of 40 kts at around 3000 feet AGL. With daytime heating, downward momentum transfer due to atmospheric mixing will lead to a breezy afternoon with sustained winds of around 20 kts and gusts up to 30 kts. These windy conditions are likely to subside after sunset as the near-surface atmosphere decouples from the stronger winds aloft. Another slug of low level moisture will stream northward in conjunction with the strong low level jet. MVFR looks likely once again after midnight and into early Thursday morning. Regarding the potential for rain, there are still some uncertainties as to just how much rain coverage will occur this afternoon. Most of the high resolution weather models keep the bulk of the precipitation to the northwest, across the Bowie cornerpost. There may still be some isolated to scattered rain showers across the TAF sites, but given location and coverage uncertainty, will keep the afternoon mention of precipitation as VCSH. Hernandez && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 320 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2019/ /Today and Tonight/ The main story today and tonight will be the increasing winds throughout the day, followed by increasing rain chances this afternoon and continuing through the night. All these weather changes can be attributed to an upper level trough that is now emerging out of the Mexican high terrain, and is expected to move across the Four Corners region later this afternoon. Given its distance from North and Central Texas, most residents are expected to remain precipitation free. The exception will be in the northwestern counties, where lift is expected to be slightly higher due to the proximity to the passing shortwave. Increasing low-level cyclogenesis on the lee side of the Rockies will lead to an increasing response in the low level wind field throughout the day. Wind speeds at about 2000-3000 feet above ground level may increase to around 50 mph this afternoon. This will lead to some downward moment transfer as afternoon mixing takes place. Surface winds are expected to increase to around 15-20 mph this afternoon, with occasional wind gusts at around 25-30 mph. Thunderstorm activity will remain heavily concentrated mostly to the northwest of our area, but as the shortwave makes its closest approach, a cluster of thunderstorms could skirt the Red River counties. For the rest of the region, plenty of moisture will make its way northward, and with warm temperatures in place, a few warm advection showers and storms will be possible. The severe weather threat throughout the region will remain low today and tonight given the lack of significant instability. This shortwave will continue moving to the northeast, and temporarily reduce the probability of rain the region before rain chances return during the day Thursday. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 320 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2019/ /Thursday through Tuesday/ Thursday will be another cloudy and warm day across North and Central Texas as Gulf moisture is drawn northward into an approaching low pressure system. Highs Thursday will be in the 70s region wide. Although some warm air advection showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible through the day, the best chances will be across the northern zones where a cold front will stall. The cold front will continue to be a focus for showers and thunderstorms Thursday night as it sinks slowly southward through North Texas. Large scale forcing for ascent will increase as short wave energy ejects around the base of a strong upper low centered over the Four Corners region. Although mid level lapse rates will be marginal, moderate to strong shear may support a few zealous updrafts which could produce small to marginally severe hail and possible some gusty downburst winds. The Four Corners upper low will lift to the Central Plains on Friday, sending the cold front southward through the region. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will accompany the front, followed by increasing dry/cold air advection from the north. All precipitation should exit the region early Friday evening, with clearing skies and much colder temperatures (30s and lower 40s) by sunrise Saturday. Dry northwest flow aloft, abundant sun and decreasing cold air advection Saturday will allow temperatures to warm into the middle 50s and lower 60s. Temperatures Saturday night will be cold with lows ranging from the mid 30s to the lower 40s. Sunday will be warmer (close to seasonal normals) with highs in the middle and upper 60s. Wind speeds will also be light Sunday as surface high pressure translates towards the Lower Mississippi Valley region. Low level warm/moist advection will increase Monday in response to a deepening lee trough across the Central High Plains. As a result, it will be warmer and more humid Monday with highs from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Shower and thunderstorm chances will return to the region Monday night and Tuesday due to the approach and passage of an upper trough and associated cold front. There are significant model differences with regards to the strength of this system, so we will keep PoPs low for now. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 65 74 50 57 / 10 40 60 70 60 Waco 78 65 75 56 65 / 10 30 50 60 70 Paris 74 61 72 51 57 / 5 60 70 70 70 Denton 76 64 73 47 55 / 20 50 70 70 60 McKinney 75 65 74 49 57 / 10 40 70 70 60 Dallas 77 66 75 51 59 / 10 40 60 70 70 Terrell 76 65 75 52 62 / 5 40 50 70 70 Corsicana 77 65 74 56 64 / 5 30 50 60 70 Temple 79 65 76 57 66 / 10 20 40 40 70 Mineral Wells 77 62 72 46 54 / 40 40 50 70 50 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 08

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20.Nov.2019


FWD issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Nov 20, 3:21 AM CST

883 FLUS44 KFWD 200921 HWOFWD Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 321 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2019 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-210930- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 321 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. A few storms will be possible today. No severe weather is expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances will continue Thursday and Friday. A few storms on Thursday could be strong, with small hail and gusty winds possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$

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20.Nov.2019


FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 20, 3:20 AM CST

937 FXUS64 KFWD 200920 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 320 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2019 .SHORT TERM... /Today and Tonight/ The main story today and tonight will be the increasing winds throughout the day, followed by increasing rain chances this afternoon and continuing through the night. All these weather changes can be attributed to an upper level trough that is now emerging out of the Mexican high terrain, and is expected to move across the Four Corners region later this afternoon. Given its distance from North and Central Texas, most residents are expected to remain precipitation free. The exception will be in the northwestern counties, where lift is expected to be slightly higher due to the proximity to the passing shortwave. Increasing low-level cyclogenesis on the lee side of the Rockies will lead to an increasing response in the low level wind field throughout the day. Wind speeds at about 2000-3000 feet above ground level may increase to around 50 mph this afternoon. This will lead to some downward moment transfer as afternoon mixing takes place. Surface winds are expected to increase to around 15-20 mph this afternoon, with occasional wind gusts at around 25-30 mph. Thunderstorm activity will remain heavily concentrated mostly to the northwest of our area, but as the shortwave makes its closest approach, a cluster of thunderstorms could skirt the Red River counties. For the rest of the region, plenty of moisture will make its way northward, and with warm temperatures in place, a few warm advection showers and storms will be possible. The severe weather threat throughout the region will remain low today and tonight given the lack of significant instability. This shortwave will continue moving to the northeast, and temporarily reduce the probability of rain the region before rain chances return during the day Thursday. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Thursday through Tuesday/ Thursday will be another cloudy and warm day across North and Central Texas as Gulf moisture is drawn northward into an approaching low pressure system. Highs Thursday will be in the 70s region wide. Although some warm air advection showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible through the day, the best chances will be across the northern zones where a cold front will stall. The cold front will continue to be a focus for showers and thunderstorms Thursday night as it sinks slowly southward through North Texas. Large scale forcing for ascent will increase as short wave energy ejects around the base of a strong upper low centered over the Four Corners region. Although mid level lapse rates will be marginal, moderate to strong shear may support a few zealous updrafts which could produce small to marginally severe hail and possible some gusty downburst winds. The Four Corners upper low will lift to the Central Plains on Friday, sending the cold front southward through the region. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will accompany the front, followed by increasing dry/cold air advection from the north. All precipitation should exit the region early Friday evening, with clearing skies and much colder temperatures (30s and lower 40s) by sunrise Saturday. Dry northwest flow aloft, abundant sun and decreasing cold air advection Saturday will allow temperatures to warm into the middle 50s and lower 60s. Temperatures Saturday night will be cold with lows ranging from the mid 30s to the lower 40s. Sunday will be warmer (close to seasonal normals) with highs in the middle and upper 60s. Wind speeds will also be light Sunday as surface high pressure translates towards the Lower Mississippi Valley region. Low level warm/moist advection will increase Monday in response to a deepening lee trough across the Central High Plains. As a result, it will be warmer and more humid Monday with highs from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Shower and thunderstorm chances will return to the region Monday night and Tuesday due to the approach and passage of an upper trough and associated cold front. There are significant model differences with regards to the strength of this system, so we will keep PoPs low for now. 79 && .AVIATION... /Issued 1118 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2019/ /06Z TAFs/ VAD wind data from area RADARs indicate around 45 kt of southerly flow at 2000 feet, which means a nice low level jet has already become established. Meanwhile, IR imagery reveals a growing deck of stratus across the Hill Country, and these clouds will spread north fairly rapidly during the overnight hours. The onset of MVFR has been bumped up a couple of hours in this latest forecast set, with KACT starting at 08Z and the Metroplex airports at 10Z. MVFR conditions should then linger until around midday Wednesday, followed by VFR and gusty south winds. Scattered showers still look possible starting around 21/00Z, with the probability of thunder too low to mention at this time. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 65 74 50 57 / 10 40 60 70 60 Waco 78 65 75 56 65 / 10 30 50 60 70 Paris 74 61 72 51 57 / 5 60 70 70 70 Denton 76 64 73 47 55 / 20 50 70 70 60 McKinney 75 65 74 49 57 / 10 40 70 70 60 Dallas 77 66 75 51 59 / 10 40 60 70 70 Terrell 76 65 75 52 62 / 5 40 50 70 70 Corsicana 77 65 74 56 64 / 5 30 50 60 70 Temple 79 65 76 57 66 / 10 20 40 40 70 Mineral Wells 77 62 72 46 54 / 40 40 50 70 50 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 08/79

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20.Nov.2019


WACO Nov 19 Climate Report: High: 81 Low: 38 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0

496 CDUS44 KFWD 200700 CLIACT CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1259 AM CST WED NOV 20 2019......................................THE WACO CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 19 2019... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1901 TO 2019 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL.................................................................. TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 81 202 PM 87 1949 67 14 54 MINIMUM 38 644 AM 24 1903 45 -7 37 AVERAGE 60 56 4 46 PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 0.00 2.87 1992 0.08 -0.08 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 0.07 1.90 -1.83 3.08 SINCE SEP 1 4.54 8.86 -4.32 20.54 SINCE JAN 1 32.03 31.02 1.01 30.15 SNOWFALL (IN) YESTERDAY 0.0 0.0 MM 0.0 0.0 0.0 MONTH TO DATE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE SEP 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE JUL 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNOW DEPTH 0 DEGREE DAYS HEATING YESTERDAY 5 10 -5 19 MONTH TO DATE 257 132 125 231 SINCE SEP 1 388 199 189 322 SINCE JUL 1 388 199 189 322 COOLING YESTERDAY 0 1 -1 0 MONTH TO DATE 12 31 -19 3 SINCE SEP 1 838 592 246 660 SINCE JAN 1 3079 2787 292 3369.................................................................. WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 16 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION S (180) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 20 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION S (180) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 6.5 SKY COVER POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.0 WEATHER CONDITIONS THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT) HIGHEST 89 400 AM LOWEST 28 300 PM AVERAGE 59.......................................................... THE WACO CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY NORMAL RECORD YEAR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 67 85 1949 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 45 23 1937 SUNRISE AND SUNSET NOVEMBER 20 2019......SUNRISE 701 AM CST SUNSET 528 PM CST NOVEMBER 21 2019......SUNRISE 702 AM CST SUNSET 527 PM CST - INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS. R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED. MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING. T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT. $$

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20.Nov.2019


DALLAS FORT WORTH Nov 19 Climate Report: High: 80 Low: 44 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0

495 CDUS44 KFWD 200700 CLIDFW CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1259 AM CST WED NOV 20 2019......................................THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 19 2019... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1898 TO 2019 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL.................................................................. TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 80 314 PM 87 1950 65 15 54 MINIMUM 44 629 AM 20 1903 45 -1 36 AVERAGE 62 55 7 45 PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 0.00 2.77 1907 0.08 -0.08 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 0.75 1.88 -1.13 0.85 SINCE SEP 1 5.17 8.65 -3.48 29.20 SINCE JAN 1 32.30 32.76 -0.46 51.41 SNOWFALL (IN) YESTERDAY 0.0 T 1930 0.0 0.0 0.0 MONTH TO DATE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE SEP 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE JUL 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNOW DEPTH 0 DEGREE DAYS HEATING YESTERDAY 3 10 -7 20 MONTH TO DATE 244 142 102 249 SINCE SEP 1 392 214 178 352 SINCE JUL 1 392 214 178 352 COOLING YESTERDAY 0 1 -1 0 MONTH TO DATE 4 27 -23 1 SINCE SEP 1 800 568 232 550 SINCE JAN 1 3002 2750 252 3149.................................................................. WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 16 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION S (170) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 21 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION S (180) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 6.8 SKY COVER POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.2 WEATHER CONDITIONS THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT) HIGHEST 77 800 AM LOWEST 25 300 PM AVERAGE 51.......................................................... THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY NORMAL RECORD YEAR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 65 84 2007 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 44 23 1937 SUNRISE AND SUNSET NOVEMBER 20 2019......SUNRISE 703 AM CST SUNSET 524 PM CST NOVEMBER 21 2019......SUNRISE 704 AM CST SUNSET 524 PM CST - INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS. R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED. MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING. T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT. $$

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20.Nov.2019


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