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FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 22, 4:25 AM CDT

907 FXUS64 KFWD 220925 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 425 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 .SHORT TERM... /Today and Monday/ The main concern in the short term forecast period will be the risk for showers and thunderstorms across parts of the area. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but heavy rain may result in some flood issues near and north of US HWY 380 over the next 24 to 36 hours. A conveyor of rich moisture associated with T.S. Lorena continues to stream northward ahead of a trough now positioned across the Four Corners region. This moisture plume has resulted in multiple waves of showers/storms across West Texas---some of which may skim portions of our Big Country and western Texoma counties this morning. Associated with the Four Corners trough is a cold front that is steadily oozing southward into the Central and Southern Plains. These three weather features will result in rain/storm chances for North Texas and parts of the Big Country. Current indications are that the cold front will progress southward through the day today with occasional quicker surges southward as portions of the boundary are reinforced by convective cold pools. The aformentioned trough has been progged by the general model consensus over the last several days to translate eastward across the Panhandles. As this front slows near the Red River, forcing from the ageostrophic response beneath the entrance region of a 90 knot upper level jet streak around the base of the trough, in tandem with low level moisture convergence along the front, should result in an eruption of convection across southwestern Oklahoma and adjacent portions of North Texas. Most HREF members agree that convective initiation is probable by 2100 UTC today. The coverage, unfortunately, is a little uncertain, but given the aformentioned synoptic background, it appears that scattered to numerous showers and storms are a good possibility across the region this afternoon/evening. I've nudged PoPs upward into the likely category for this timeframe across areas west and north of the D/FW Metroplex given the decent agreement among many HREF members. PoPs generally taper downward toward 20 percent closer to I-20. Rain/storm chances across the Brazos Valley and Central Texas today are associated with streamer showers penetrating the underbelly of the mid-level ridge this morning, then afternoon convection associated with the reinforced sea-breeze front expected to drift northward. The potential for severe weather will be limited across North Texas as deep layer shear is expected to remain paltry further away from the core of the stronger mid/upper level flow. Deep layer shear vectors are largely parallel to the slow moving cold front, and with PWAT values forecast to be 175% of normal, there will be a heavy rain and subsequent flood risk. The moist regime may also promote some precipitation loading and a gusty downburst risk in the afternoon hours, but the flood threat appears more appreciable. 48 hour MRMS rainfall data appear to line up well with automated gauges and indicate that some areas along the Red River received between 2 and 4 inches of rain on Friday. With the potential for training convective cells over some of these areas, there will be a heightened risk for flooding. Confidence in the exact placement of the heaviest rain this afternoon/evening precludes the issuance of a Flood Watch for any of our counties at this time. Moreover, I expect that most of the flood issues can be handled with advisories. Otherwise, temperatures today will climb into the upper 80s (across the Red River) to mid 90s (across Central Texas). Extended reaches of hi-res guidance hint at another potential for showers and storms on Monday. Initially, convection may fire near/ west of US HWY 281 where modest flow atop the stalled frontal boundary/residual outflow may be sufficient to lift parcels upward to their LFC. Confidence in exactly where the boundary stalls is a little on the low side, but the scenario advertised by model guidance seems reasonable. For now, I'll paint a large area of 30-40 PoPs with the greatest rain/storm chances across the Big Country. Cooler conditions are forecast on Monday given the potential for rain/clouds. Unfortunately, a good portion of the area will remain in the 90s...except along the Red River and across parts of the Big Country where highs may remain in the 80s. Bain && .LONG TERM... /Tuesday Through Next Weekend/ A full-latitude trough will make landfall on the West Coast today. Despite spending a considerable amount of time over the relative data void of the North Pacific, guidance has been in lockstep with its evolution over the western U.S. early this week. It will become a closed low near Las Vegas on Monday, digging even more equatorward on Tuesday. It is at that point that an upstream jet streak emerging from the Pacific will pinch off the low, which will spend the middle of the week stranded in the Desert Southwest. Despite the calendar's transition to astronomical autumn, subtropical ridging will attempt to maintain power. But the proximity of the cut-off low upstream will keep a mid-level weakness in place, beneath which an onshore fetch will sustain a supply of unseasonably rich tropical moisture. Although the ridge's position will limit the extent of convection (while pushing afternoon temperatures into the 90s each day), the weather will remain a bit unsettled. The bulk of the convective activity Tuesday through Thursday will be within the more vigorous westerly flow through the Panhandles and Oklahoma, but some of this activity may be inclined to slip south of the Red River. This would apply to both nocturnal convection into the daylight portion of the mornings and the peak heating of the afternoons. More scattered (primarily diurnally driven) showers/storms will be possible elsewhere. Forecasters often bemoan the unpredictability of cut-off lows, but this particular version is remarkably well behaved with no more model spread than any other feature would have at day 5. Latest runs continue to project a northeastward ejection through the Texas Panhandle with the time more narrowly focused on Friday. Far removed from the forcing, North and Central Texas may miss out on the associated precipitation entirely. Ridging will attempt to retrograde back into Texas next weekend, but the tropical conveyor on its western periphery may keep the unsettled weather in place. 25 && .AVIATION... /Issued 1122 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019/ /06z TAFs/ While VFR conditions currently prevail at the TAF sites, another round of MVFR stratus is expected overnight. The onset of low cigs should occur around 09-10z at Waco and closer to 11-12z across the DFW area. Stratus is likely to be less widespread than the previous couple of nights, although at least some intermittent cigs will be possible through mid to late morning at any of the TAF sites. Cig heights will predominantly be at or above 2 kft, although some may briefly fall into the 1-2 kft range. Conditions should improve to VFR at all airports by late Sunday morning. Scattered afternoon convection is expected across parts of North Texas and southern Oklahoma, but at this time, am expecting all activity to remain north and west of the TAF sites. Will maintain rain-free TAFs for the time being, but northern arrivals/departures may be affected. South winds are expected to prevail, although outflow boundaries from any convection could result in temporary wind shifts late Sunday afternoon or evening. -Stalley && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 95 75 92 75 92 / 10 40 30 20 30 Waco 94 73 95 73 94 / 10 10 10 10 20 Paris 89 72 86 72 86 / 10 30 60 40 50 Denton 92 74 88 74 91 / 10 60 40 30 40 McKinney 93 74 89 74 91 / 10 40 40 30 40 Dallas 95 76 92 76 93 / 10 40 30 20 30 Terrell 93 74 94 74 93 / 10 20 30 20 30 Corsicana 95 72 93 72 91 / 10 10 20 10 20 Temple 94 72 94 72 91 / 10 10 10 10 20 Mineral Wells 92 71 89 72 91 / 20 50 40 20 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 25/24

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22.Sep.2019


FWD issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Sep 22, 4:12 AM CDT

552 FLUS44 KFWD 220912 HWOFWD Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 412 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-231100- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 412 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Thunderstorm chances increase today and tonight mainly northwest of the D/FW Metroplex. Heavy rain and minor flooding are possible... especially for areas that received heavy rain on Friday. Gusty downburst winds are possible, but widespread severe weather is not expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Thunderstorm chances will continue Monday through Saturday across most parts of North and Central Texas although overall coverage will be low. The best chance for storms will be on Tuesday between I-20 and the Red River. Heavy rainfall and lightning will be the main threats with any storms through the week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$ Bain

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22.Sep.2019


DALLAS FORT WORTH Sep 21 Climate Report: High: 94 Low: 77 Precip: 0.0 Snow: M

626 CDUS44 KFWD 220654 CLIDFW CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 153 AM CDT SUN SEP 22 2019......................................THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR SEPTEMBER 21 2019... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1898 TO 2019 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL.................................................................. TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 94 241 PM 99 2005 86 8 86 1956 MINIMUM 77 648 AM 45 1983 65 12 72 AVERAGE 86 76 10 79 PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 0.00 6.38 1900 0.07 -0.07 5.85 MONTH TO DATE T 1.85 -1.85 9.18 SINCE SEP 1 T 1.85 -1.85 9.18 SINCE JAN 1 27.13 25.96 1.17 31.39 DEGREE DAYS HEATING YESTERDAY 0 0 0 0 MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0 SINCE SEP 1 0 0 0 0 SINCE JUL 1 0 0 0 0 COOLING YESTERDAY 21 11 10 14 MONTH TO DATE 434 308 126 331 SINCE SEP 1 434 308 126 331 SINCE JAN 1 2636 2490 146 2930.................................................................. WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 23 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION SE (150) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 29 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION SE (150) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 16.2 SKY COVER POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.6 WEATHER CONDITIONS THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT) HIGHEST 82 500 AM LOWEST 41 300 PM AVERAGE 62.......................................................... THE DALLAS FORT WORTH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY NORMAL RECORD YEAR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 86 101 2005 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 65 45 1983 SUNRISE AND SUNSET SEPTEMBER 22 2019.....SUNRISE 716 AM CDT SUNSET 725 PM CDT SEPTEMBER 23 2019.....SUNRISE 717 AM CDT SUNSET 724 PM CDT - INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS. R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED. MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING. T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT. $$

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22.Sep.2019


WACO Sep 21 Climate Report: High: 96 Low: 77 Precip: 0.0 Snow: M

625 CDUS44 KFWD 220654 CLIACT CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 153 AM CDT SUN SEP 22 2019......................................THE WACO CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR SEPTEMBER 21 2019... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1901 TO 2019 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL.................................................................. TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 96 243 PM 101 1933 88 8 91 MINIMUM 77 627 AM 45 1938 64 13 74 AVERAGE 87 76 11 83 PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 0.00 2.25 1995 0.09 -0.09 0.02 MONTH TO DATE 0.17 2.11 -1.94 4.70 SINCE SEP 1 0.17 2.11 -1.94 4.70 SINCE JAN 1 27.66 24.27 3.39 14.31 DEGREE DAYS HEATING YESTERDAY 0 0 0 0 MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0 SINCE SEP 1 0 0 0 0 SINCE JUL 1 0 0 0 0 COOLING YESTERDAY 22 12 10 18 MONTH TO DATE 433 308 125 376 SINCE SEP 1 433 308 125 376 SINCE JAN 1 2674 2503 171 3085.................................................................. WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 22 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION SE (150) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 30 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION SE (120) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 15.2 SKY COVER POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.5 WEATHER CONDITIONS THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT) HIGHEST 85 100 AM LOWEST 39 300 PM AVERAGE 62.......................................................... THE WACO CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY NORMAL RECORD YEAR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 88 100 2005 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 64 40 1983 SUNRISE AND SUNSET SEPTEMBER 22 2019.....SUNRISE 717 AM CDT SUNSET 726 PM CDT SEPTEMBER 23 2019.....SUNRISE 718 AM CDT SUNSET 724 PM CDT - INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS. R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED. MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING. T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT. $$

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22.Sep.2019


The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Sep 22, 5:48z for portions of FWD

275 WUUS01 KWNS 220550 PTSDY1 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT SUN SEP 22 2019 VALID TIME 221200Z - 231200Z PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1... TORNADO... &&... HAIL... 0.05 33599959 34259980 34849955 35769874 37299659 40069191 41188977 41648853 41888767 41478672 40638658 40098678 39428753 38618909 37019199 34049693 33849728 33269855 33599959 &&... WIND... 0.05 33279856 33589959 34269980 34829955 35809870 37159681 39899223 41438915 41888769 41498677 40638658 40048679 39458749 36779246 33899715 33279856 && CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1... CATEGORICAL... MRGL 33569958 34279981 34869957 35729879 37089691 39859229 41078991 41568883 41898771 41488674 40608657 40088677 39468748 38338961 35709424 33849724 33289855 33569958 TSTM 25889825 27419868 28859877 30569704 31479588 32199531 32559506 33039536 33019632 32309799 31379944 30540043 29010095 99999999 31671271 32311233 33621148 34411027 34330977 33710930 32750822 32190710 32070536 32180472 33050268 35460058 36149951 38609940 39729922 40189984 40620083 40790150 41260202 41950259 42620266 43030211 43260132 43470007 43559836 42739707 42009572 42669416 43269261 43639173 45978576 46718375 99999999 43937729 42137875 39628264 38298423 36478748 35448964 34299203 33759231 33259253 32629260 30479272 30169161 30168913 30178837 29778810 99999999 25278266 25238169 25428044 25587976 26057850 99999999 47822501 46872348 45882186 45762071 46021950 46301839 46601722 46491618 46321559 45901527 45441533 45001581 43941720 42051850 41481910 41222021 40982166 41012257 41492379 42282511 && THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WSW SPS 30 ESE CDS 20 NW LTS 35 NE CSM 25 NNE PNC 20 SE IRK 30 NNW PIA 15 NNW MMO 50 NW VPZ 15 E VPZ 25 ENE LAF 25 SSE LAF 10 W HUF 20 SE BLV 20 S FYV 35 SSW ADM 45 NW MWL 70 WSW SPS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S MFE 45 WSW ALI 40 NE COT 40 W CLL 50 SE CRS 10 SSE TYR 25 WNW GGG 40 S PRX 30 ENE DAL 15 ENE SEP 40 SW BWD 40 W JCT 25 S DRT...CONT... 85 S GBN 50 SSE GBN 35 ENE PHX 20 WNW SOW 15 ENE SOW 55 SE SOW 10 NNW SVC 35 E DMN 35 WNW GDP 25 N GDP 40 NE HOB 50 ESE BGD 60 NNW CSM 35 WSW RSL 40 NE HLC 40 E MCK 30 NNW MCK 20 NNE IML 50 ENE SNY 15 SE AIA 25 ESE CDR 50 ENE CDR 50 NW VTN 45 WSW 9V9 25 SW MHE 20 SE YKN 20 W DNS 10 NNE FOD 35 ENE MCW 30 SW LSE 55 WNW PLN 35 ENE ANJ...CONT... 60 NNE ROC 25 NNW BFD 30 SSE CMH 25 NE LEX 10 SSW CKV 35 NE MEM 10 NW PBF 35 WNW LLQ 15 E ELD 35 WNW MLU 40 NE LCH 20 E LFT 15 SSW GPT 35 SSW MOB 65 S MOB...CONT... 75 NW EYW 45 N EYW 30 SSW MIA 35 ESE MIA 105 ESE PBI...CONT... 20 WSW UIL 20 ESE HQM 40 WNW DLS 25 ENE DLS 40 NW PDT 15 NNW ALW 10 SSW PUW 35 NW P69 10 N P69 25 SE P69 50 SSE P69 15 ENE MYL 55 WNW BOI 50 SW REO 75 E AAT 25 SE AAT 40 SE MHS 25 SSW MHS 30 SE CEC 45 WNW 4BK.

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22.Sep.2019


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