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FWD continues Flood Warning for Trinity River near Long Lake (Oakwood) [TX] until further notice

162 WGUS84 KFWD 030123 FLSFWD Flood Statement National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 823 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas... Trinity River At Trinidad affecting Navarro and Henderson Counties. Elm Fork Trinity River Near Carrollton affecting Denton and Dallas Counties. Trinity River Near Long Lake (Oakwood) affecting Freestone, Anderson and Leon Counties. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest forecasts. TXC213-349-031330- /O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0075.000000T0000Z-200406T1800Z/ /TDDT2.1.ER.200331T0617Z.200402T0345Z.200406T0600Z.NO/ 823 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Monday afternoon... The Flood Warning continues for the Trinity River At Trinidad. * Until Monday afternoon. * At 7:00 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 35.26 feet. * Flood stage is 33.0 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river has crested and will continue to fall to near 32 feet by Tuesday evening. * Impact...At 33.0 feet, Minor flooding occurs along the right bank of the river. Low woodlands for one mile along right bank will begin to flood. && LAT...LON 3223 9613 3207 9600 3206 9613 3219 9626 $$ TXC113-121-031330- /O.CON.KFWD.FL.W.0071.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /CART2.1.ER.200329T0830Z.200404T1147Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 823 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020...The Flood Warning remains in effect... The Flood Warning continues for the Elm Fork Trinity River Near Carrollton. * Until further notice...Or until the warning is cancelled. * At 7:15 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 8.32 feet. * Flood stage is 8.0 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river is expected to remain steady above flood stage. * Impact...At 8.0 feet, Minor flooding will occur upstream from the gauge, near the city golf course. && LAT...LON 3300 9688 3287 9687 3287 9699 3300 9700 $$ TXC001-161-289-031330- /O.CON.KFWD.FL.W.0070.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /LOLT2.1.ER.200403T2200Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 823 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020...The Flood Warning remains in effect... The Flood Warning continues for the Trinity River Near Long Lake (Oakwood). * Until further notice...Or until the warning is cancelled. * At 4:30 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 35.3 feet. * Flood stage is 35.0 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river is falling, but will rise tomorrow due to upstream releases and additional rainfall. The river is expected to crest near 37.5 feet late this weekend * Impact...At 37.0 feet, Minor flooding of the Coffield Prison agricultural land, and ranch and farm lands along the river, is expected. && LAT...LON 3173 9580 3149 9562 3150 9580 3170 9593 $$ Bonnette

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03.Apr.2020


FWD continues Flood Warning for Elm Fork Trinity River near Carrollton [TX] until further notice

162 WGUS84 KFWD 030123 FLSFWD Flood Statement National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 823 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas... Trinity River At Trinidad affecting Navarro and Henderson Counties. Elm Fork Trinity River Near Carrollton affecting Denton and Dallas Counties. Trinity River Near Long Lake (Oakwood) affecting Freestone, Anderson and Leon Counties. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest forecasts. TXC213-349-031330- /O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0075.000000T0000Z-200406T1800Z/ /TDDT2.1.ER.200331T0617Z.200402T0345Z.200406T0600Z.NO/ 823 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Monday afternoon... The Flood Warning continues for the Trinity River At Trinidad. * Until Monday afternoon. * At 7:00 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 35.26 feet. * Flood stage is 33.0 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river has crested and will continue to fall to near 32 feet by Tuesday evening. * Impact...At 33.0 feet, Minor flooding occurs along the right bank of the river. Low woodlands for one mile along right bank will begin to flood. && LAT...LON 3223 9613 3207 9600 3206 9613 3219 9626 $$ TXC113-121-031330- /O.CON.KFWD.FL.W.0071.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /CART2.1.ER.200329T0830Z.200404T1147Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 823 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020...The Flood Warning remains in effect... The Flood Warning continues for the Elm Fork Trinity River Near Carrollton. * Until further notice...Or until the warning is cancelled. * At 7:15 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 8.32 feet. * Flood stage is 8.0 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river is expected to remain steady above flood stage. * Impact...At 8.0 feet, Minor flooding will occur upstream from the gauge, near the city golf course. && LAT...LON 3300 9688 3287 9687 3287 9699 3300 9700 $$ TXC001-161-289-031330- /O.CON.KFWD.FL.W.0070.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /LOLT2.1.ER.200403T2200Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 823 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020...The Flood Warning remains in effect... The Flood Warning continues for the Trinity River Near Long Lake (Oakwood). * Until further notice...Or until the warning is cancelled. * At 4:30 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 35.3 feet. * Flood stage is 35.0 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river is falling, but will rise tomorrow due to upstream releases and additional rainfall. The river is expected to crest near 37.5 feet late this weekend * Impact...At 37.0 feet, Minor flooding of the Coffield Prison agricultural land, and ranch and farm lands along the river, is expected. && LAT...LON 3173 9580 3149 9562 3150 9580 3170 9593 $$ Bonnette

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03.Apr.2020


FWD extends time of Flood Warning for Trinity River at Trinidad [TX] till Apr 6, 1:00 PM CDT

162 WGUS84 KFWD 030123 FLSFWD Flood Statement National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 823 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas... Trinity River At Trinidad affecting Navarro and Henderson Counties. Elm Fork Trinity River Near Carrollton affecting Denton and Dallas Counties. Trinity River Near Long Lake (Oakwood) affecting Freestone, Anderson and Leon Counties. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest forecasts. TXC213-349-031330- /O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0075.000000T0000Z-200406T1800Z/ /TDDT2.1.ER.200331T0617Z.200402T0345Z.200406T0600Z.NO/ 823 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Monday afternoon... The Flood Warning continues for the Trinity River At Trinidad. * Until Monday afternoon. * At 7:00 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 35.26 feet. * Flood stage is 33.0 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river has crested and will continue to fall to near 32 feet by Tuesday evening. * Impact...At 33.0 feet, Minor flooding occurs along the right bank of the river. Low woodlands for one mile along right bank will begin to flood. && LAT...LON 3223 9613 3207 9600 3206 9613 3219 9626 $$ TXC113-121-031330- /O.CON.KFWD.FL.W.0071.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /CART2.1.ER.200329T0830Z.200404T1147Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 823 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020...The Flood Warning remains in effect... The Flood Warning continues for the Elm Fork Trinity River Near Carrollton. * Until further notice...Or until the warning is cancelled. * At 7:15 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 8.32 feet. * Flood stage is 8.0 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river is expected to remain steady above flood stage. * Impact...At 8.0 feet, Minor flooding will occur upstream from the gauge, near the city golf course. && LAT...LON 3300 9688 3287 9687 3287 9699 3300 9700 $$ TXC001-161-289-031330- /O.CON.KFWD.FL.W.0070.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /LOLT2.1.ER.200403T2200Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 823 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020...The Flood Warning remains in effect... The Flood Warning continues for the Trinity River Near Long Lake (Oakwood). * Until further notice...Or until the warning is cancelled. * At 4:30 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 35.3 feet. * Flood stage is 35.0 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river is falling, but will rise tomorrow due to upstream releases and additional rainfall. The river is expected to crest near 37.5 feet late this weekend * Impact...At 37.0 feet, Minor flooding of the Coffield Prison agricultural land, and ranch and farm lands along the river, is expected. && LAT...LON 3173 9580 3149 9562 3150 9580 3170 9593 $$ Bonnette

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03.Apr.2020


FWD continues Flood Warning for South Sulphur River near Cooper [TX] until further notice

068 WGUS84 KFWD 030058 FLSFWD Flood Statement National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 758 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas... South Sulphur River Near Cooper affecting Hopkins and Delta Counties. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest forecasts. TXC119-223-031300- /O.CON.KFWD.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /COPT2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 758 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020...The Flood Warning remains in effect... The Flood Warning continues for the South Sulphur River Near Cooper. * Until further notice...Or until the warning is cancelled. * At 5:15 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 17.8 feet. * Flood stage is 16.0 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river is expected to remain steady above flood stage at 17.8 feet. * Impact...At 16.0 feet, Minor out of bank flooding will occur. A few rural roads will begin to flood. Minor flooding will occur to farm and ranch land adjacent to the river. && LAT...LON 3337 9567 3341 9556 3341 9549 3330 9548 3329 9557 $$ Bonnette

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03.Apr.2020


FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 2, 7:54 PM CDT

890 FXUS64 KFWD 030054 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 754 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020 .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Friday Night/ The short term forecast will feature periods of unsettled weather and cooler temperatures with the arrival of a strong cold front. There is a potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening into Saturday morning, mainly across Central Texas. There also exists a potential for flooding due to heavy rain. Showers and embedded thunderstorms are ongoing across Central Texas this evening and will continue to move east/northeast, mainly confined to near and south of the I-20 corridor. This activity should diminish within the next few hours and result in a brief lull of showers and thunderstorms tonight. Some drizzle may be observed as low-level moisture is advected northward tonight ahead of the strong cold front. The cold front, which currently extends from the Plains towards the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, will approach the region from the northwest tonight. While there are some discrepancies on the timing and speed of the front, the forecast remains sided with the latest NAM guidance since the model has a better handle on shallow cold fronts. Based on the timing of the system, our afternoon temperatures will range from the mid to upper 50s across the northwest to upper 70s across the southeast. Despite overcast skies, persistent southerly flow ahead of the cold front will result in CAPE values near 2000-2500 J/kg tomorrow afternoon across Central Texas. Forcing for ascent associated with the front, along with high moisture content and instability would support a threat for large hail with any strong to severe thunderstorms. The speed of the front will play a factor in which areas across the southeast will have the best potential for strong/severe thunderstorms. A faster/slower moving front will result in the risk shifting further southeast/northeast. The high moisture content will also result in a risk for flooding across Central Texas Friday evening and night, especially across areas that have received abundant rainfall over the past few weeks. Garcia && .LONG TERM... /Issued 343 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020/ /Saturday through next Thursday/ The active weather continues this weekend and unfortunately through next week. At this time, the highest rain chances continues to be on Saturday, Monday and again later in the week. We will get a few breaks from the rain, but most of the region will see multiple rounds of showers and storms by the time next weekend arrives. In addition to the rain chances, a warming trend is in the forecast for next week. Afternoon temperatures will easily reach the mid to upper 80s by the middle of next week. A cool and wet Saturday is expected across all North and Central TX. We will wake up with temperatures in the 40s, but it will only warm up into the 50s to low 60s Saturday afternoon. With the cooler airmass in place, the wet weather and the overcast skies will keep the temperatures 10-18 degrees below normal for early April. In terms of the precipitation, areas along and south of I-20 will have the highest rain and storm chances as a disturbance moves in from the southwest. It will mainly be showers, but a few embedded thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon and evening. We can't rule out some flooding issues across parts of Central TX, especially over the areas that receive heavy rain Friday evening/night. We might get a break from the rain Saturday night, but rain chances increase again on Sunday. As we've been advertising over the last few days, more rain is coming next week. Both the GFS and ECMWF show southwest flow aloft with multiple disturbances traveling over the southern Plains. This, combined with the fact that we will stay in the warm sector every day, will result in multiple rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms through at least next Friday. No severe weather is expected at this time, however, a much stronger storm system is set to arrive late next week and will bring better lift for more widespread storm chances. We will continue to monitor the trends over the next few days. With these multi-day rain chances, we are looking at rainfall totals ranging from the 1-2.5" across North Texas and over 3" across parts of Central TX. This means that there will be some flooding issues each day, especially across far south Central TX. Additional rises on rivers and creeks may also occur. It is important to mention that if these totals verify, some locations will receive their normal rainfall totals for April in just the first two weeks of the month. Continue to monitor the forecast over the next couple of days for updates on specific details! Sanchez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ Concerns: MVFR/IFR ceilings, FROPA, and SHRA/TSRA. SHRA and embedded TSRA continue to track across Central Texas, mainly impacting the ACT terminal. Some of this activity may skirt the Metroplex terminals, but expect most activity, if any, to remain as showers. Poor flying conditions will prevail across all terminals through the forecast period. MVFR ceilings will prevail across the Metroplex, while a period of IFR ceilings will be possible early Friday morning. Some guidance has hinted at IFR ceilings approaching the Metroplex terminals, but will keep MVFR ceilings and adjust in subsequent TAF issuances if guidance continues to trend towards the IFR category. Otherwise, southerly flow will persist through Friday morning. A strong cold front will result in northerly winds and a potential for SHRA/TSRA across the region. FROPA is expected at the Metroplex sites around midday and at ACT a few hours later. The best potential for TSRA remains at ACT tomorrow afternoon, but a few SHRA with isolated TSRA ahead of the front may develop across the Metroplex sites. Northerly winds with speeds of around 15 knots with higher gusts will prevail through Friday evening. Garcia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 63 67 45 60 53 / 20 50 30 50 30 Waco 65 74 47 60 55 / 50 80 60 60 40 Paris 60 66 45 62 53 / 20 70 60 50 30 Denton 62 66 44 59 51 / 20 40 30 40 30 McKinney 62 65 44 60 52 / 20 60 40 40 30 Dallas 63 68 46 60 54 / 20 60 40 50 30 Terrell 63 73 45 62 53 / 20 80 60 50 30 Corsicana 63 74 47 61 55 / 40 80 60 60 40 Temple 64 76 48 60 55 / 60 70 70 70 40 Mineral Wells 61 63 44 57 50 / 10 30 20 50 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 22/06

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03.Apr.2020


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