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FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 19, 3:42 PM CDT ...New Long Term...

056 FXUS64 KFWD 192042 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 342 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 137 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022/ /Through Saturday/ Drier mid level air continues to filter in from the north this afternoon, limiting precipitation chances to only across Central Texas through the evening. Primarily isolated convection is expected this afternoon generally near and south of a line from Goldthwaite to West to Athens. The richer moisture has shunted to the south where most activity will remain, but weak convergence along the boundary remaining across Central Texas will be still be supportive of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Similar to the previous few days, any stronger storm would be capable of gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall. After rain chances diminish tonight, it should be fairly quiet across the region with lows in the low to mid 70s. Less moisture in the area will be somewhat short lived, as winds gradually veering more southerly will advect low level moisture back into the area. This will send well above normal PWAT values back into Central Texas by the morning, and into North Texas by midday. Weak warm air advection, combined with the moisture in place, will again support the development of showers and storms. Chances will mostly exist for East Texas in the morning before expanding to the entire forecast area in the afternoon. The overall coverage will remain low, so broad, mostly 20-30% PoPs are being advertised. Otherwise, temperatures will climb into the mid 90s tomorrow as the next system and real rain maker positions itself to just to the west. Gordon && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Sunday Through Thursday/...A widespread, long duration precipitation event settles into North and Central Texas late weekend through next week bringing an increasing potential for flood concerns... As zonal flow aloft develops this weekend, an upper-level shortwave trough is progged to undercut the building ridge over the Rockies/Intermountain West and track eastward across the Southern Plains. This upper-level impulse will interact with a surface boundary in the vicinity resulting in increasing rain chances arriving early Sunday across North Texas and gradually spreading south and east. Moisture pooling along the frontal boundary, in response to persistent southerly flow in the lower levels, will result in precipitable water values of 2.0-2.5 inches by Monday. How anomalous is this? PWATs of this magnitude in August are observed once every 2-10 years or more across North Texas. Point forecast soundings reflect a very saturated profile, with a deep warm cloud layer, indicative of high precipitation efficiency along and south of the boundary. Recent rainfall has resulted in at least modest improvement in soil moisture conditions according to the experimental NASA SPoRT- LIS 0-40cm soil moisture analysis. However, the rainfall deficit across the region remains high (ranging from 8-20+"). While counterintuitive, localized heavy downpours when combined with these dry antecedent conditions, can increase the risk for nuisance flooding or flash flooding. This is one of the reasons why the WPC's Day 3 and Experimental Day 4-5 ERO has highlighted a broad corridor stretching from West-Central Texas/the Concho Valley to the Lower Mississippi Valley in a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance. Flash, urban, and river flooding may occur in many areas across the region next week. Forecast Rainfall Accumulation: Adjustments to the timing, placement, and magnitude of the heaviest precipitation continue. WPC's 12Z Day 1-7 QPF, which shows the areal average precipitation accumulation, has increased to 7 to 10 inches across a large swath of North and Central Texas with 5 to 7 inches elsewhere. At any given location, the median or most likely total accumulation has also increased with forecast totals now ranging from 2 to 5 inches with isolated higher totals (of 10+ inches) possible. The European model ensemble members continue to be the most agressive with high totals, but there is quite a spread between the ensemble members themselves with around 25% of the members showing less than 2 inches between 12Z Sunday and 00Z Thursday. This lack of consensus indicates that confidence continues to be low which supports advertising forecast rainfall totals below the areal average. Lastly, there has been a subtle eastward and southward shift in the location of the heaviest precipitation bringing higher totals into East and Central Texas. 12 && .AVIATION... /Issued 137 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022/ /18Z TAFs/ Low clouds this morning have scattered and lifted, marking the return of VFR conditions at all sites. Winds will gradually veer and become more southeasterly today and remain SE at 10 kts or less through the period. For Waco, the convection should remain well to the south this afternoon, with very low probabilities of impacts at ACT. Gordon && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 95 77 88 73 / 10 20 30 70 80 Waco 75 96 77 94 76 / 20 20 10 50 60 Paris 70 92 73 83 70 / 10 20 30 80 70 Denton 74 96 75 85 71 / 5 20 40 70 80 McKinney 73 93 74 85 70 / 10 20 30 70 80 Dallas 77 94 78 88 74 / 10 20 30 70 80 Terrell 73 94 75 90 73 / 20 30 30 70 80 Corsicana 75 94 77 90 75 / 20 30 10 60 70 Temple 73 95 74 93 74 / 20 20 10 40 50 Mineral Wells 73 96 74 90 71 / 5 20 40 70 80 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

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19.Aug.2022


The Weather Prediction Center issues Day 3 Slight Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook at Aug 19, 20:00z for portions of FWD

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19.Aug.2022


FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 19, 1:37 PM CDT ...New Short Term, Aviation...

214 FXUS64 KFWD 191837 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 137 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Saturday/ Drier mid level air continues to filter in from the north this afternoon, limiting precipitation chances to only across Central Texas through the evening. Primarily isolated convection is expected this afternoon generally near and south of a line from Goldthwaite to West to Athens. The richer moisture has shunted to the south where most activity will remain, but weak convergence along the boundary remaining across Central Texas will be still be supportive of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Similar to the previous few days, any stronger storm would be capable of gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall. After rain chances diminish tonight, it should be fairly quiet across the region with lows in the low to mid 70s. Less moisture in the area will be somewhat short lived, as winds gradually veering more southerly will advect low level moisture back into the area. This will send well above normal PWAT values back into Central Texas by the morning, and into North Texas by midday. Weak warm air advection, combined with the moisture in place, will again support the development of showers and storms. Chances will mostly exist for East Texas in the morning before expanding to the entire forecast area in the afternoon. The overall coverage will remain low, so broad, mostly 20-30% PoPs are being advertised. Otherwise, temperatures will climb into the mid 90s tomorrow as the next system and real rain maker positions itself to just to the west. Gordon && .LONG TERM... /Issued 412 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022/ /Next Week/ A prolonged period of unsettled weather will dominate the upcoming week. A Great Lakes trough will help drag negative mid-level height anomalies and an associated surface front into the Southern Plains by Sunday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday will induce low-level cyclogenesis over North Texas. And with a weakness aloft, additional rounds of rainfall will create a feedback mechanism that strengthens/maintains the area of low pressure, which in turn will encourage the development of more showers and storms. This feature is progged to remain parked over our CWA throughout much of the upcoming week. As a result, PoPs will be -far- above climatology (which during late August means 12-hour PoPs of 10-15 percent along the I-35 corridor). Accompanying cloud cover will keep daytime temperatures as much as 10-15 degrees below normal, particularly during the wettest days of Monday and Tuesday when rain-cooled areas may fail to reach 80 degrees. (And to think DFW Airport didn't have -any- temperatures below 80F from July 24 to August 5.) Deep tropical moisture will assure extraordinary precipitable water values, primarily above 2 inches early in the week. In fact, some solutions project near-record values during the Sunday night into Monday rain event. As is often the case with convective activity in a tropical environment, particularly with a rainy period of this duration, QPF varies considerably. For the entire 7-day forecast period (through Thursday), ensemble means are in excess of 3 inches across the entire CWA, the vast majority of which falls early next week. The box of our box-and-whisker plot, which comprises the middle half of all solutions, ranges from 1.50" to more than 6 inches. With a pattern nearly impossible to remain rain-free, even the driest solutions have widespread wetting rainfall. Despite long-term drought conditions in place, slow-moving cells with intense rainfall efficiency will produce excessive runoff that could resulting in flooding. This flood threat will increase deeper into the event as the ground steadily saturates. 25 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ Low clouds this morning have scattered and lifted, marking the return of VFR conditions at all sites. Winds will gradually veer and become more southeasterly today and remain SE at 10 kts or less through the period. For Waco, there convection should remain well to the south this afternoon, with very low probabilities of impacts at ACT. Gordon && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 93 77 95 77 90 / 5 10 20 20 60 Waco 93 75 96 77 95 / 30 20 20 10 40 Paris 90 70 92 73 85 / 5 10 20 20 70 Denton 93 74 96 75 87 / 5 5 20 30 70 McKinney 91 73 93 75 87 / 5 10 20 20 70 Dallas 92 77 94 78 90 / 5 10 20 20 60 Terrell 92 73 94 76 90 / 5 20 30 20 60 Corsicana 92 75 94 77 92 / 20 20 30 10 50 Temple 91 73 95 75 95 / 40 20 20 10 40 Mineral Wells 96 73 96 75 91 / 5 5 20 20 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

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19.Aug.2022


The Weather Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook at Aug 19, 15:51z for portions of FWD

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19.Aug.2022


Eastland,TX (ETN) ASOS reports gust of 52 knots (59.8 mph) from N @ 1335Z KETN 191335Z AUTO 35010G52KT 290V090 10SM CLR 22/19 A3000 RMK AO2 T02210189

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19.Aug.2022


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