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FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 19, 5:09 AM CDT ...New Short Term, Aviation...

475 FXUS64 KFWD 191009 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 509 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: No changes needed to the current forecast through Sunday. Hot and dry conditions will prevail with highs in the mid/upper 90s through the weekend. Moisture will increase some, especially east of I-35 on Sunday afternoon, but precipitation chances will hold off until Monday. Dunn && Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Sunday/ Mostly clear skies and warm conditions will continue through the weekend with little chance for rainfall. A stout mid level ridge is centered over Arizona at this time but its influence is still being felt across Texas with above normal temperatures. Meanwhile, a weak tropical system is spreading into coastal Louisiana at this hour with a weaker mid level disturbance meandering across southeast Texas. The northeast flow around these two features is fairly dry as indicated by PWs less than 1" on the latest GOES PW imagery. At the surface, dewpoints are in the mid 60s across North Texas with lower 70s staying to the east. Low level winds have been more east-southeast earlier today, but these will become more southerly on Saturday as temperatures rise back into the mid 90s. We'll see temperatures climb a few degrees on Sunday as flow above the surface becomes more southwesterly and dewpoints will also creep back up into the lower 70s east of I-35. Rain chances will be near zero through the weekend. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 342 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021/ /Monday onward/ The sprawling mid-level ridge across the Southwest and Great Plains that has been responsible for the hot and dry weather here (and particularly in the Southwest) will break down slightly and shift west by Monday. As this occurs, a cold front will make its way across the Great Plains, reaching North TX some time on Monday. There remains some significant timing differences between the global models (i.e. GFS/ECMWF) and the high-resolution NAM. This could have some significant implications on high temperatures on Monday, as the slower NAM solution would mean southwest/downslope flow and adiabatic compressional warming ahead of the front. The faster GFS/ECMWF would mean precipitation overspreading the region earlier in the day, keeping high temperatures down. The NBM is already on the warmer end of the guidance, which gives a little confidence in the slower solutions. For now, will lead towards NBM but Monday's highs will need to be fine-tuned as the cold front timing becomes more certain. By evening, the front should be well within the FWD CWA however, regardless of model solutions. As the front drives into North Texas, widespread convection should develop within a highly unstable air mass. Dewpoints in the lower 70s will mean CAPE values in excess of 2,000 J/kg. While this would sometimes be a significant harbinger for severe weather, mid-level lapse rates will be rather weak, meaning the CAPE profiles will be of the "tall and skinny" type. Additionally, mid-level flow will be weak, minimizing wind shear. This will keep the severe weather threat on the lower side, but some instances of damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 MPH and large hail will certainly be possible. SPC has highlighted a "Marginal" risk for much of North/Central TX on Day 3 which is very reasonable at this point in time. In addition to the potential for severe weather, some locally heavy rainfall may be possible, especially across East TX where moisture content will be higher. Widespread rainfall accumulations should generally be an inch or less, but locally higher amounts in excess of two inches will certainly be possible. Rivers have had plenty of time to recede, so we can take some rain before runoff becomes a major issue, but heavy rain in a short period of time could lead to some minor flooding in typically flood-prone locations. Showers and thunderstorms look to continue into Tuesday morning as the front stalls near the TX Gulf Coast and eventually washes out. South flow should return to the region by Wednesday with the Desert Southwest mid-level ridge reasserting itself by mid-week. This will lead to a return to near normal temperatures (i.e. mid to upper 90s) for the second half of the week. Some shower/storm chances may return to the forecast by next weekend with the GFS hinting at the possibility of northwest flow (which could open the door for MCS activity), but the ECMWF keeps a strong ridge in place through the weekend (keeping precipitation chances near nil). For now, will advertise low PoPs and see which model solution towards which things eventually converge. Godwin && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ VFR is expected through the period with southerly flow around 10 kt. No significant aviation concerns expected through Sunday. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 96 77 98 79 93 / 0 0 0 0 60 Waco 94 74 96 77 96 / 0 0 0 0 40 Paris 91 72 93 75 88 / 0 0 0 5 80 Denton 94 73 96 77 90 / 0 0 0 5 60 McKinney 93 73 96 77 91 / 0 0 0 5 60 Dallas 96 77 98 80 93 / 0 0 0 0 60 Terrell 93 72 94 76 92 / 0 0 0 0 60 Corsicana 94 74 96 78 94 / 0 0 0 0 50 Temple 95 72 96 77 95 / 0 0 0 0 30 Mineral Wells 94 72 97 75 91 / 0 0 0 0 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

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19.Jun.2021


FWD issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Jun 19, 3:42 AM CDT

881 FLUS44 KFWD 190842 HWOFWD Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 342 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-200845- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 342 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Thunderstorms will be likely across much of North and Central Texas late Monday afternoon and into Monday night. A few thunderstorms may be severe with damaging wind gusts and large hail being the main threats. Locally heavy rainfall may be possible as well across parts of East Texas. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$

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19.Jun.2021


FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 19, 3:42 AM CDT ...New Long Term...

985 FXUS64 KFWD 190842 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 342 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1105 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021/ /Overnight through Sunday/ Mostly clear skies and warm conditions will continue through the weekend with little chance for rainfall. A stout mid level ridge is centered over Arizona at this time but its influence is still being felt across Texas with above normal temperatures. Meanwhile, a weak tropical system is spreading into coastal Louisiana at this hour with a weaker mid level disturbance meandering across southeast Texas. The northeast flow around these two features is fairly dry as indicated by PWs less than 1" on the latest GOES PW imagery. At the surface, dewpoints are in the mid 60s across North Texas with lower 70s staying to the east. Low level winds have been more east-southeast earlier today, but these will become more southerly on Saturday as temperatures rise back into the mid 90s. We'll see temperatures climb a few degrees on Sunday as flow above the surface becomes more southwesterly and dewpoints will also creep back up into the lower 70s east of I-35. Rain chances will be near zero through the weekend. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Monday onward/ The sprawling mid-level ridge across the Southwest and Great Plains that has been responsible for the hot and dry weather here (and particularly in the Southwest) will break down slightly and shift west by Monday. As this occurs, a cold front will make its way across the Great Plains, reaching North TX some time on Monday. There remains some significant timing differences between the global models (i.e. GFS/ECMWF) and the high-resolution NAM. This could have some significant implications on high temperatures on Monday, as the slower NAM solution would mean southwest/downslope flow and adiabatic compressional warming ahead of the front. The faster GFS/ECMWF would mean precipitation overspreading the region earlier in the day, keeping high temperatures down. The NBM is already on the warmer end of the guidance, which gives a little confidence in the slower solutions. For now, will lead towards NBM but Monday's highs will need to be fine-tuned as the cold front timing becomes more certain. By evening, the front should be well within the FWD CWA however, regardless of model solutions. As the front drives into North Texas, widespread convection should develop within a highly unstable air mass. Dewpoints in the lower 70s will mean CAPE values in excess of 2,000 J/kg. While this would sometimes be a significant harbinger for severe weather, mid-level lapse rates will be rather weak, meaning the CAPE profiles will be of the "tall and skinny" type. Additionally, mid-level flow will be weak, minimizing wind shear. This will keep the severe weather threat on the lower side, but some instances of damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 MPH and large hail will certainly be possible. SPC has highlighted a "Marginal" risk for much of North/Central TX on Day 3 which is very reasonable at this point in time. In addition to the potential for severe weather, some locally heavy rainfall may be possible, especially across East TX where moisture content will be higher. Widespread rainfall accumulations should generally be an inch or less, but locally higher amounts in excess of two inches will certainly be possible. Rivers have had plenty of time to recede, so we can take some rain before runoff becomes a major issue, but heavy rain in a short period of time could lead to some minor flooding in typically flood-prone locations. Showers and thunderstorms look to continue into Tuesday morning as the front stalls near the TX Gulf Coast and eventually washes out. South flow should return to the region by Wednesday with the Desert Southwest mid-level ridge reasserting itself by mid-week. This will lead to a return to near normal temperatures (i.e. mid to upper 90s) for the second half of the week. Some shower/storm chances may return to the forecast by next weekend with the GFS hinting at the possibility of northwest flow (which could open the door for MCS activity), but the ECMWF keeps a strong ridge in place through the weekend (keeping precipitation chances near nil). For now, will advertise low PoPs and see which model solution towards which things eventually converge. Godwin && .AVIATION... /Issued 1105 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021/ /6Z TAFs/ VFR is expected through the period with southerly flow around 10 kt. No significant aviation concerns expected through Sunday. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 96 76 98 79 93 / 0 0 0 0 60 Waco 94 73 96 77 96 / 0 0 0 0 40 Paris 92 71 94 75 88 / 0 0 0 5 80 Denton 94 73 97 77 90 / 0 0 0 5 60 McKinney 93 73 96 77 91 / 0 0 0 5 60 Dallas 96 77 98 80 93 / 0 0 0 0 60 Terrell 93 72 94 76 92 / 0 0 0 0 60 Corsicana 94 74 95 78 94 / 0 0 0 0 50 Temple 95 72 95 77 95 / 0 0 0 0 30 Mineral Wells 95 72 97 75 91 / 0 0 0 0 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

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19.Jun.2021


The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 3 Marginal Convective Risk at Jun 19, 7:28z for portions of FWD

489 WUUS03 KWNS 190729 PTSDY3 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2021 VALID TIME 211200Z - 221200Z PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3... ANY SEVERE... 0.05 47566866 45346979 44167073 42917184 41867290 40407482 39587617 37398062 35258381 34368587 32429067 30599529 29989765 30049870 30929930 32419914 34059827 35089667 36149470 36879160 38118823 40128397 42198174 0.15 45297327 43807371 42947421 41307542 40377672 39617822 38708049 38348208 38548308 39138332 39998304 40828218 41228159 41718052 42307946 42907845 43817776 && CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3... CATEGORICAL... SLGT 45297327 43797371 42947421 41307542 40377672 39617822 38708049 38348208 38548308 39138332 39998304 40828218 41228159 41718052 42307946 42907845 43817776 MRGL 47566866 45346979 44167073 42917184 41867290 40407482 39587617 37398062 35258381 34368587 32429067 30599529 29989765 30049870 30919930 32419914 34059827 35089667 36149469 36879160 38118823 40128397 42198174 TSTM 40632391 41152415 42292402 43862308 44462228 44552165 44092057 42761984 41741985 40722031 40032110 40392198 40532259 40392318 40632391 99999999 31410696 32380825 33070882 34880788 36320666 37640730 38540701 39410581 39890436 39510087 39659737 40029323 41278800 45158173 && THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N BTV 30 N GFL 25 WNW ALB 15 E AVP 10 NNE CXY 20 NW MRB 35 WSW EKN 25 E HTS 30 WNW HTS 60 W UNI 10 W CMH 20 E MFD 20 SE CLE 30 SW ERI 15 NW JHW 15 E BUF 50 N ROC. THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW CAR 60 NW BGR 30 ESE MWN 20 E EEN 15 WSW BDL 10 N TTN 30 WSW ILG 20 N PSK 40 SSE TYS 30 NNE GAD 65 NNE HEZ 15 SE UTS 25 S AUS 40 NNW SAT 40 NE JCT 30 E ABI 15 ENE SPS 45 S CQB 30 WNW FYV 15 ENE UNO 40 ESE MVN 20 NE DAY 55 N CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE EKA 10 NNW ACV 20 NE 4BK 20 SSE EUG 45 SE SLE 30 NW RDM 30 ESE RDM 50 NE LKV 40 SE LKV 55 SSE AAT 60 E RBL 20 NE RBL 30 NNW RBL 50 WNW RBL 15 SE EKA...CONT... 45 SW ELP 20 SSW SVC 50 NW SVC 20 S GNT 25 NE 4SL 40 NE DRO GUC 55 WSW DEN 30 ENE DEN 45 ENE GLD 15 ENE CNK 25 NE CDJ 35 E MMO 90 E APN.

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19.Jun.2021


WACO Jun 18 Climate Report: High: 94 Low: 72 Precip: 0.0 Snow: M

727 CDUS44 KFWD 190647 CLIACT CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 147 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2021......................................THE WACO CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JUNE 18 2021... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1901 TO 2021 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 94 238 PM 106 2011 93 1 95 MINIMUM 72 1133 PM 62 1941 72 0 72 AVERAGE 83 82 1 84 PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 0.00 1.86 1966 0.11 -0.11 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 1.04 2.19 -1.15 0.00 SINCE JUN 1 1.04 2.19 -1.15 0.00 SINCE JAN 1 13.39 18.51 -5.12 25.97 DEGREE DAYS HEATING YESTERDAY 0 0 0 0 MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0 SINCE JUN 1 0 0 0 0 SINCE JUL 1 2134 2079 55 1975 COOLING YESTERDAY 18 18 0 19 MONTH TO DATE 278 287 -9 290 SINCE JUN 1 278 287 -9 290 SINCE JAN 1 667 749 -82 799................................................................... WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 13 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION E (110) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 20 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION E (90) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 6.5 SKY COVER POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.1 WEATHER CONDITIONS THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT) HIGHEST 84 500 AM LOWEST 40 500 PM AVERAGE 62.......................................................... THE WACO CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY NORMAL RECORD YEAR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 93 105 1918 2011 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 72 60 1945 SUNRISE AND SUNSET JUNE 19 2021..........SUNRISE 624 AM CDT SUNSET 837 PM CDT JUNE 20 2021..........SUNRISE 624 AM CDT SUNSET 837 PM CDT - INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS. R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED. MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING. T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT. $$

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19.Jun.2021


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