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The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jul 16, 12:36z for portions of FWD

135 WUUS01 KWNS 161237 PTSDY1 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019 VALID TIME 161300Z - 171200Z PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1... TORNADO... 0.02 42470437 44480730 45210936 46290914 46720522 45849991 44409930 43669924 42870004 42470085 42010331 42470437 &&... HAIL... 0.05 45471142 45791176 47130785 47850389 47320095 46629728 45729412 44619092 43919015 42899027 41549116 39989519 40050003 40170333 40910463 41980620 42710652 43710825 44500974 45161120 45471142 0.15 44570743 45130928 46250920 46770512 45869991 44349932 43749924 42870009 42390099 42050331 42530443 44570743 SIGN 44510731 45230755 45970644 46480506 45900150 44320054 43580055 43240143 43610432 43730603 44510731 &&... WIND... 0.05 34289569 34609320 35389073 41278513 41658428 41698262 40948184 39208330 36378673 33878904 33069006 32379131 32329235 33219584 33459620 33929619 34289569 0.05 45871173 47250749 47900385 46669722 45569387 44449074 43929020 43079024 41629120 40029514 40100121 40200333 41020460 41980620 42750653 44841039 45251134 45871173 0.15 44470750 45170940 46270918 46750515 45970039 45189735 43929646 43069780 42340108 42230231 42040338 42600460 44470750 0.30 46460503 45519991 44229990 44140075 44490516 45540619 46460503 && CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1... CATEGORICAL... ENH 46480506 45539983 44279985 44130077 44480508 45540617 46480506 SLGT 44500736 45200937 46260916 46760514 45920028 45189738 43969656 43049782 42360105 42040341 42600460 44500736 MRGL 46669722 46239585 45729412 44619092 43919015 43209023 43079024 43069025 42899027 41549116 39989519 40050003 40100110 40100121 40120158 40170333 40910463 41980620 42710652 43710825 44500974 45161120 45201123 45251134 45611156 45791176 45811170 45871173 47250749 47900385 46669722 MRGL 40948184 39208330 36378673 33878904 33069006 32379131 32329235 33219584 33459620 33929619 34289569 34609320 35389073 41278513 41658428 41698262 40948184 TSTM 31261155 32361038 33580998 35140965 37930887 39940804 41240765 41730669 42050647 42620665 42790912 42361116 42071390 41891618 42461697 44221662 45041681 46161608 46771569 47641654 48021795 49301902 99999999 49349806 48669781 48289740 47189412 46259202 46028989 46498678 47228312 99999999 45416590 44716971 43887143 42167290 41027389 39147526 38417558 36927481 99999999 29498645 30938656 31278680 31408791 30908894 28359117 99999999 28949424 29259471 29129560 28469704 28659752 28939792 29919734 31719603 32189633 32789676 33089696 34029778 34649725 35079621 36879383 37929251 38979131 40349103 40659132 40329231 38849405 38139486 37399634 37539744 38189969 37570142 36180240 34590367 32640473 30650568 && THERE IS A ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E MLS 30 E MBG 25 ESE PIR 30 SW PIR 25 ENE GCC 40 WNW 4BQ 40 E MLS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW SHR 50 NNW COD 35 ESE 3HT 30 SSW GDV 30 NNE MBG 20 NNW ATY 25 SSE BKX 25 WNW YKN 20 N MHN 15 NE BFF 40 ESE DGW 25 SW SHR. THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW FAR 35 NW AXN 10 NNW STC 35 ESE EAU VOK LNR 10 SSW LNR 10 SSW LNR 25 S LNR 35 W MLI 20 NW STJ 30 ESE MCK 30 WSW MCK 35 WSW MCK 30 S IML AKO 20 SSE CYS 55 ENE RWL 15 S CPR 25 SW WRL 35 W COD 35 N WEY 35 N WEY 40 SSW BZN 25 WSW BZN 30 W BZN 25 W BZN 30 WNW BZN 80 SSW GGW 20 NE SDY 25 SW FAR. THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CAK 55 W UNI 15 N BNA 30 SSW TUP 30 S GWO 45 ESE MLU 25 SW MLU 35 SW PRX 35 SE GYI 10 E DUA 40 S MLC 10 NNW HOT 30 S JBR 20 N FWA 25 WNW TOL 45 WNW CLE 20 W CAK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW TUS 40 ENE TUS 50 S SOW 55 WSW GUP 40 NE 4BL 50 SW CAG 45 SSW RWL 25 E RWL 40 ENE RWL 20 SSW CPR 20 W LND 55 WSW BPI 35 S BYI OWY 45 E REO 50 NNW BOI 35 WNW MYL 25 W P69 45 N P69 45 E GEG 35 NW GEG 60 NNE OMK...CONT... 65 NW HCO 40 W HCO 25 NNW GFK 45 ESE BJI 40 S DLH 35 NW RHI 40 E MQT 80 NE ANJ...CONT... 65 ENE EPM 25 N AUG 20 N LCI 10 W BAF 25 NNE EWR 10 E DOV SBY 75 E ORF...CONT... 70 SW PFN 10 NNW CEW 15 SE GZH 50 W GZH 35 NNE GPT 90 SSW HUM...CONT... 40 SE GLS GLS 10 W LBX 30 SSW VCT 20 NNE NIR 40 NNW NIR 35 SE AUS 30 SE CRS 10 NNE CRS DAL 15 NNW DAL 40 E SPS 25 NNW ADM 30 WNW MLC UMN 25 WNW TBN 50 ENE COU 30 NNE UIN 15 SW BRL 20 NE IRK 30 WNW SZL 45 NE CNU 45 NNW BVO 10 S ICT 35 NNE DDC 45 NNW LBL 15 NE DHT 25 NW CVS 35 NW CNM 90 SSE ELP.

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16.Jul.2019


FWD issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 16, 6:21 AM CDT

850 FXUS64 KFWD 161121 AAA AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 621 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 .AVIATION... /12Z TAFs/ Concerns -- Isolated to widely scattered TSRA possible over Bonham arrival gate. VFR/S flow all terminals. North/Central TX remain within deep S-SEly flow this morning. To the northeast...TS are ongoing across southwest AR. These TS may result in the development of outflow boundary in the vicinity of the Red River later this afternoon which may act as focus for additional TS development. High-res guidance in agreement that TS may develop along a KGVT-KTXK line after 21Z...but disagree with respect to amount of coverage. While TS are not expected at any TAF sites...impacts to NE arrival gate are possible this afternoon...depending on amount of coverage. Right now...coverage appears more likely to be isolated in nature...but trends will need to be monitored through the afternoon. Convection should dissipate after 00Z. Otherwise...all terminals will remain VFR and in S flow through the TAF period. 37 && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 241 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019/ /Today and Tonight/ The main challenge for today's forecast is whether or not we will see any convection develop in our northeastern counties. This morning, there is some convection ongoing across far southeastern Oklahoma and into southwestern Arkansas. In the upper levels, a subtle impulse is evident on water vapor satellite imagery moving south around the western periphery of the remnant low of what used to be Hurricane Barry. This impulse, combined with the potential for a residual outflow boundary from the ongoing convection, could allow some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon, generally north of I-30. Looking at the HREF and its respective members, there seem to be two camps. The more aggressive camp (made up of the NSSL-WRF, ARW, and NMMB) show more widespread and organized convection. This group of models develops convection quite rapidly during the afternoon, and sends it barreling south as a forward-propagating MCS. The more conservative camp (made up of the 3km NAM and HRRR) shows more isolated to widely scattered convection developing during the middle to late afternoon. One point of agreement is the location and timing of this convection. All of the aforementioned models show convection developing north of the I-30 corridor (generally northeast of the immediate Metroplex) during the 3 p.m. to 7 p.m. timeframe. Where they disagree is on the extent of the coverage. For now, will lean towards the more conservative solutions for two main reasons. First, the lack of a well-defined surface focusing mechanism, should generally limit coverage. The ongoing convection this morning however could produce a more extensive outflow boundary, but until we have a better idea of what kind of outflow boundary (if any at all) develops, decided it was best to lean on the conservative side. Secondly, upper-level wind shear should be weak, which should limit convective organization to disorganized, cellular convection. Again, there is some uncertainty as to how much of a surface forcing mechanism we will end up with this afternoon, thus introducing uncertainty with regards to coverage, but what we are more confident about is the potential for at least isolated convection northeast of the Metroplex. In terms of impacts from any of these thunderstorms, there will be a potential for localized damaging downburst winds. Forecast soundings show large boundary layer temperature/dewpoint spreads. Afternoon high temperatures are likely to approach (and potentially exceed) 100 F. The result is downdraft CAPE values on the order of 1,000 J/kg, meaning any thunderstorms that develop would be capable of damaging downburst winds. Any thunderstorms that form will also be capable of producing brief heavy downpours and occasional lightning strikes. As for the rest of the county warning area, a hot day is expected. Afternoon high temperatures will approach (and could potentially exceed) 100 F for much of the county warning area. Combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70, maximum heat index values will climb over 100 F, and in fact, will exceed Heat Advisory criteria (105 F) for most locations northeast of a Jacksboro to Corsicana line. For this reason, a Heat Advisory is in effect for today. The convective development mentioned in the previous couple of paragraphs could prevent criteria from being reached in our far northeastern counties, especially if convection turns out to be more widespread than currently forecast, but given the low confidence in the amount of coverage, and for the sake of consistency, will allow the Heat Advisory to ride as is for today. 37 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 241 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019/ /Wednesday into Early Next Week/ Mainly hot and dry conditions are expected for much of the extended forecast, although the building mid-level ridging over the southern Plains will not be abnormally strong for this time of year. Regardless, temperatures near 95-100 on Wednesday will combine with surface dew points hanging tough in the upper 60s to lower 70s to produce heat indices around 100-110 across our entire area, with the worst focused along the 35 corridor and eastward, where the heat advisory will continue. Through the end of the week and into the early weekend, conditions are unlikely to change appreciably. Lee troughing across the central and northern Plains will continue to induce breezy southerly flow across our region, which will at least lessen the intensity of the heat and humidity slightly. Highs will remain in the mid/upper 90s, but dew points at peak heating may drop a few degrees (versus earlier in the week) thanks to continued upward mixing/dispersion of boundary-layer moisture and slow drying of soils/vegetation. In turn, heat indices may fall more into the 100-105 range for most locations Thursday into Friday; still, the heat advisory may need to be extended into at least Thursday for some eastern areas. Otherwise, southerly flow may bring scattered low-level stratocu into Central Texas and the Brazos Valley early each morning, before diurnal mixing converts these clouds into fair-weather cumulus. Late this weekend into early next week, most ensemble and deterministic guidance indicates that heights will rise dramatically over the Rockies, while a trough will develop across the eastern US. The GFS and some of its ensemble members (although they remain un-FV3) indicate a vigorous shortwave trough will drive a front and unseasonably dry air south across our area by Tuesday. This solution seems rather over-amplified, though, and a solution closer to the ECMWF would appear more likely, with a front hanging up to our northeast, yet perhaps boosting our precipitation chances by next Tuesday. Will continue to maintain a dry forecast at such an extended range, though, given inherent timing/uncertainty with the synoptic evolution. Picca && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 98 79 98 78 98 / 5 5 0 0 0 Waco 97 77 98 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 93 75 93 76 93 / 20 10 0 0 0 Denton 98 78 98 78 98 / 5 5 0 0 0 McKinney 97 78 98 77 97 / 10 5 0 0 0 Dallas 99 80 99 78 98 / 5 5 0 0 0 Terrell 96 77 98 78 98 / 5 5 0 0 0 Corsicana 95 77 94 75 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 96 76 95 75 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 98 75 98 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ091>095-101>107-116>123-131>135-144>148-159>162-175. && $$ 37/11

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16.Jul.2019


FWD continues Heat Advisory valid at Jul 16, 12:00 PM CDT for Anderson, Bosque, Collin, Cooke, Dallas, Delta, Denton, Ellis, Falls, Fannin, Freestone, Grayson, Henderson, Hill, Hood, Hopkins, Hunt, Jack, Johnson, Kaufman, Lamar, Leon, Limestone, McLennan, Montague, Navarro, Palo Pinto, Parker, Rains, Robertson, Rockwall, Somervell, Tarrant, Van Zandt, Wise [TX] till Jul 17, 7:00 PM CDT

632 WWUS74 KFWD 161042 NPWFWD URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 542 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019...VERY HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS... TXZ091>095-101>107-116>123-131>135-144>148-159>162-175-162100- /O.CON.KFWD.HT.Y.0003.190716T1700Z-190718T0000Z/ Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-Hunt- Delta-Hopkins-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-Rockwall-Kaufman- Van Zandt-Rains-Hood-Somervell-Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Bosque- Hill-Navarro-Freestone-Anderson-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-Leon- Robertson- Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman, Denison, Bonham, Paris, Jacksboro, Decatur, Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano, McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper, Sulphur Springs, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar, Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman, Forney, Canton, Grand Saline, Wills Point, Van, Edgewood, Emory, East Tawakoni, Point, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose, Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie, Ennis, Midlothian, Athens, Gun Barrel City, Clifton, Meridian, Valley Mills, Hillsboro, Corsicana, Teague, Fairfield, Wortham, Palestine, Waco, Marlin, Mexia, Groesbeck, Buffalo, Centerville, Jewett, Normangee, Oakwood, Hearne, Franklin, and Calvert 542 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY... * TEMPERATURES...Between 93 to 100 degrees. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...Between 105 to 108 degrees. * IMPACTS...Heat exhaustion or stroke may set in if individuals and pets are not adequately cooled and/or hydrated. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heat Advisory means that afternoon heat index values are expected to meet or exceed 105 degrees for at least two consecutive days. Be sure to check on persons with health problems and the elderly, as they are the most susceptible to heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Never leave young children or pets in an enclosed vehicle, even for a short time, as temperatures can quickly rise to life threatening levels. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. To reduce risk during outdoor work the occupational safety and health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency - call 911. && $$

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16.Jul.2019


FWD issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Jul 16, 2:42 AM CDT

412 FLUS44 KFWD 160742 HWOFWD Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 242 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-170745- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 242 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Heat index values today will reach around 105 to 108 degrees in many locations. Take necessary precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses. Isolated thunderstorms may develop generally northeast of a Sherman to Emory line this afternoon and evening. Lighting, brief heavy rain, and gusty winds would be the main threats. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Heat index values on Wednesday will once again reach upwards of 105 to 110 degrees, especially along and east of the I-35 corridor. Hot weather will continue into the weekend, with heat indices still reaching upwards of 105 in some spots. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$

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16.Jul.2019


Eastland,TX (ETN) ASOS reports gust of 53 knots (61.0 mph) from E @ 0735Z KETN 160735Z AUTO 08015G53KT 330V130 10SM CLR 22/20 A2993 RMK AO2

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16.Jul.2019


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